Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Crisfield, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:15PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 4:44 PM EST (21:44 UTC) Moonrise 8:26PMMoonset 9:10AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 336 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
.gale warning in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..S winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 45 kt... Becoming nw with gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 336 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front approaching from the ohio valley will cross the waters by Thursday afternoon. A reinforcing front will cross Friday, then high pressure will follow for the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday afternoon and night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Crisfield, MD
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location: 37.98, -75.86     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 232128
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
428 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the west tonight, with an area
of low pressure intensifying along the front Thursday morning. The
trailing cold front crosses the area Thursday afternoon. High
pressure builds in again for the weekend.

Near term through Thursday
As of 350 pm est Wednesday...

latest analysis indicates sfc warm front lifting nnw and now
placing all of the CWA in the warm sector. Any rain chances
will be minimal and limited to the far western portions of the
cwa into early this evening. Temperatures are mainly in the
upper 50s to mid 60s over central SE va NE nc, and into the
upper 40s lower 50s in the piedmont.

The warm front should be north of the entire area this evening
leaving the fa in the warm sector overnight. Meanwhile, moisture
from the second area of low pressure overspreads the region but
will be slow to do so. Have lowered pops overall compared to
previous forecast, delaying likely to categorical pops until
after midnight for most areas, and really until daybreak along
the coast. Thus, very warm and breezy conditions tonight with
lows from the mid 40s far NW to mid upper 50s central and se.

The low tracks NE along the advancing cold front Thu morning
with the trailing cold front crossing the area through the day,
pushing offshore by 21z Thu to 00z fri. Data shows a decent
slug of SRN stream moisture combined with strong lift btwn 12z-
18z just ahead of the cold front. Some convective elements noted
for a band of locally heavy downpours. Thus, continued with some
r+ for a 3-6 hr period. Also see the potential for brief wind
gusts to 35-45 mph sometime from 12-15z give or take an hr or
two. Opted against a wind advisory in favor of issuing sps's as
the duration is expected to be only 1-2 hrs. If a wind advisory
were to be issued by next shift, would likely be the eastern
shore and far SE va NE nc. Pcpn quickly tapers off to some
light rain or showers Thu aftn west to east as the front pushes
all the deep moisture towards the coast. Mild with highs upper
50s NW and most of the eastern shore to lower-mid 60s most other
places. QPF will avg 0.75" to 1.25".

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
As of 350 pm est Wednesday...

clearing and colder Thu night as weak high pressure briefly builds
in from the nw. Lows mid upper 20s NW to mid 30s se. A trailing
upper level shortwave will cross the area on Fri and after a
sunny start will see some clouds develop by late morning early
aftn. There will be decent lift due to the upper energy aloft,
but low levels look very dry so did not add any pops at this
time (though will need to watch this closely as a 20% pop may be
needed). Back to near normal temps Fri with highs mainly in the
40s and then below normal temps Fri night (lows in the upper
teens to mid 20s) and Sat (highs upper 30s to lower 40s) as
cold high pressure builds in and settles over the region.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 350 pm est Wednesday...

fairly quiet conditions for much of the extended period in our area.

An upper level disturbance skirts north of the area during the day
on Sunday which may lead to some light precipitation across the far
northern portions of the area. Due to the lack of moisture, just
maintained a slight chance of pops across the north into Sunday
night. Warm air advection develops Monday into Tuesday as upper
heights build ahead of another great lakes low pressure system. The
associated cold front approaches the region late in the day on and
crosses the region early Wednesday bringing the potential for rain
or snow showers across the region. Much colder conditions work into
the region by Wednesday night.

Aviation 21z Wednesday through Monday
As of 115 pm est Wednesday...

rather strong gradient between approaching low pressure west of
the appalachians and retreating but still strong sfc high
pressure off the coast. South winds have become gusty this
afternoon (to 20-30kt) and this will continue tonight through
thu morning. Also continuing to highlight llws btwn 45-60 kts
at 2k ft due to a strong low level jet tonight early Thu morning.

Rain overspreads the area west to east, mainly between
06-12z Thu along with lowering cigs. This trend is a slower
arrival of rain and thus no ifr conditions are expected until
after 12z at main terminals. Rain expected to be heavy from
12-16z and expect to see lowest vsbys with the rain and lowest
cigs probably lag by 1-2 hrs. Some brief gusts to 35-40kt will
be possible during the period as well, especially if a more
organized line of showers develops (though chance for
tstms lightning is very low).

Outlook...

cold front will be pushing off the coast by 18z thu, with rain
coming to an end from west to east and winds shifting to the wnw
at 10-20 kt. High pressure briefly returns Thu night... Before
another cold front sfc trough crosses the area on fri. Lighter
winds andVFR dry Fri night sat. Winds shift around to the south
sat night and Sun as low pressure tracks through the great
lakes but conditions look to remainVFR.

Marine
As of 400 pm est Wednesday...

a digging upper trough from the central plains ewrd into the
oh tn valleys will result in sfc low pressure and an associated
frontal boundary will push into the area fm the west tonight
into Thu morning. Increasingly steep pressure gradient between
departing high pressure and the approaching low frontal
boundary will allow S winds to increase to 15-25 kt with gusts
to 30-40 kt very late tonight thru Thu morning. Have gone with a
gale warning for the NRN three coastal zns (650-654) from late
tonight into early Thu aftn, due to gusts to 35-40 kt in these
areas. Have maintained sca's for the remainder of the waters
into early Thu aftn, with gusts 30-35 kt possible at the mouth
of the ches bay, the currituck sound, and the SRN two coastal
zns. Waves will build to 3-5 ft in the ches bay tonight into
thu morning, with seas building to 7-12 ft.

Will have to monitor for the potential for a high surf advisory
on Thu from roughly CAPE charles light northward. Winds will
become NW behind the frontal boundary late Thu aftn. Cold
advection behind the front appears rather anemic with northwest
winds 10-20 kt in its wake, decreasing further Thu evening.

Seas will be slow to subside Thu into Fri morning, with sca's
for the coastal zns lasting into Fri morning.

High pressure builds into the region Fri into Sat with tranquil
marine conditions in store through the upcoming weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 350 pm est Wednesday...

departures will continue to rise in the strong S flow through
thu morning (especially in the mid upper bay) but not expecting
any sites to hit minor flood thresholds at this time.

Equipment
As of 300 am est Wednesday...

the kakq radar remains down due to a pedestal slip ring
assembly failure. Due to the time to procure ship the needed
parts, and the repair time, the radar will remain down through
at least Friday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Thursday for anz635>637.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Thursday for anz630>634-
638.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Thursday for anz650-652-
654.

Gale warning from 4 am to 1 pm est Thursday for anz650-652-654.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Friday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Lkb
long term... Ajb mrd
aviation... Lkb
marine... Tmg rhr
tides coastal flooding... Akq
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 19 mi75 min SSE 9.9 G 13 43°F 1020.3 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 25 mi85 min E 5.8 G 5.8 40°F 1020.8 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 27 mi75 min SSW 18 G 23 50°F 37°F1021.4 hPa
44089 32 mi75 min 41°F5 ft
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 32 mi81 min SW 8.9 G 15 55°F 36°F1019.7 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 32 mi75 min S 18 G 19 1022 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi81 min ESE 6 G 8
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 39 mi75 min E 8.9 G 9.9 43°F 38°F1019.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 40 mi75 min S 8 G 9.9 40°F 1020.4 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi75 min 47°F 35°F1020 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 47 mi75 min SW 16 G 20 47°F 41°F1022.8 hPa
OCSM2 49 mi225 min 2 ft

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA21 mi1.8 hrsS 21 G 2710.00 miFair and Breezy53°F41°F64%1022.3 hPa
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA23 mi70 minS 15 G 2210.00 miFair55°F43°F65%1022 hPa

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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Crisfield, Little Annemessex River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Crisfield
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:09 AM EST     2.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:24 AM EST     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:09 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:35 PM EST     2.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:16 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:08 PM EST     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.82.121.50.90.3-0.3-0.6-0.5-0.10.61.322.42.42.11.50.80.2-0.3-0.6-0.40.1

Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Big Annemessex River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Long Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:38 AM EST     2.18 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:05 AM EST     -0.59 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:09 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:04 PM EST     2.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:15 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:49 PM EST     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.72.12.21.91.40.70.1-0.4-0.6-0.40.10.91.72.32.62.421.30.6-0-0.4-0.6-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.