Friday, June22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shepherdsville, KY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 9:11PM Friday June 22, 2018 7:15 AM EDT (11:15 UTC) Moonrise 3:02PMMoonset 2:01AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shepherdsville, KY
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location: 38, -85.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 221053
afdlmk
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
653 am edt Fri jun 22 2018

Updated aviation discussion...

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 326 am edt Fri jun 22 2018
early morning satellite imagery and observations reveal partly to
mostly cloudy skies across the area with some clear spots here and
there. Still have some lingering convection across south-central ky
that will continue to move on off to the east and affect mainly the
i-75 corridor over the next hour or so. Temperatures were generally
in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. For the remainder of the
overnight, we expect generally partly cloudy conditions to continue
with lows a few degrees cooler than current temps.

For today, anomalous upper level low located just north of st. Louis
is expected to translate eastward into central indiana. Trailing
cold front behind the system is expected to slice through the region
from west to east. Latest cams guidance suggests that we'll see an
uptick in convective development early this morning across southern
il W ky with this activity developing further east toward the i-65
corridor by late morning. By the afternoon, some clearing and
destabilization looks to occur in areas along and east of i-65.

Convection should continue to develop and increase in coverage
through the afternoon hours. Some strong storms are possible given
that we'll have some anomalously high mid-level flow across our
region. Atmospheric parameters would suggest damaging winds as the
main weather hazard today. Some hail reports would not be out of
the question given the lower freezing levels. Overall shear profile
is impressive (speed-wise) across southern ky... Especially SE ky and
into the southern apps. It's possible that we could see some
supercelluar type structures down that way, but as previous
forecaster mentioned, the low-level flow doesn't look to back enough
to produce a big threat. Much of the area is in a marginal risk
with a slight risk just to our southeast. If more sufficient
destabilization occurs this afternoon than currently forecast, a
slight risk expansion into central ky would be justified.

Highs this afternoon look to top out in the upper 70s to the lower
80s across southern in and northern ky. Mainly lower 80s are
expected across central and southern ky.

For tonight, convection should weekend pretty rapidly toward sunset
with the loss of heating and ample dynamical support shifting north
and northeast of here. Probably will see some scattered convection
linger into the late evening with drier conditions taking place by
midnight. Overnight lows look to cool into the mid-upper 60s.

Long term (Saturday through Thursday)
issued at 256 am edt Fri jun 22 2018
by Saturday morning, the anomalous upper level low that has brought
numerous rounds of showers and storms will begin to depart the ohio
valley. In its wake, 500mb flow transitions to a quasi-zonal
pattern, and embedded waves within the flow will lead to increased
cloud cover and precipitation chances starting late Saturday and
continuing through all of Sunday.

A very weak "cold" front moves toward the ky tn line by Monday
morning, and some slightly drier air moves in behind it. There is
some model discrepancy with how far south the cold front dives, and
should it stall over parts of central ky, Monday could end up being
cloudy and potentially wet. Even if the front works its way into tn
Monday morning, temperatures behind the front Monday are still
looking to be around or even slightly above climatological norms for
this time of year. Temperatures will continue to warm Tuesday as
upper level ridging builds in over the eastern third of the conus,
but a shortwave is progged to swing through on Wednesday and bring
some showers and storms that might allow a brief break from the
heat.

Beyond Wednesday, upper level ridging looks to re-establish itself
across the region per the gfs ECMWF to set up a hot and muggy end to
the week. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with the upper level
ridge and associated heat, and shows some potential triple digit
high temperatures as the core of the 500mb ridge settles nearly on
top of the lower ohio valley. Think the ECMWF solution is a bit out
to lunch with the heat, but the overall pattern from most long range
models (with the exception of the canadian) supports above normal
temperatures through the end the month.

Aviation (12z TAF issuance)
issued at 652 am edt Fri jun 22 2018
next batch of convection is developing across southern il southwest
in western ky this morning. This convection will push northeastward
and mainly affect khnb and possibly ksdf early in the period. As
upper low translates northeastward from mo into central in today,
we'll see additional convection develop. Better chances for
convection will be seen at kbwg klex ksdf from mid-late afternoon
with a reduction in coverage intensity after sunset. Outside of
storms, conditions are expected to beVFR, though some tempo drops
into MVFR ifr will be possible within convection. Surface winds
will be rather gusty today with southwest winds of 10-15kt with
gusts to 25kts at times.

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Ky... None.

Short term... Mj
long term... .Dm
aviation... ..Mj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Louisville, Standiford Field, KY13 mi80 minSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F64°F90%1005.9 hPa
Louisville, Bowman Field Airport, KY16 mi23 minS 510.00 miA Few Clouds68°F66°F96%1006.4 hPa
Fort Knox, KY16 mi80 minSE 310.00 miFair64°F64°F100%1006.9 hPa

Wind History from SDF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6S5S10W9SW7SW8SW11SW14SW8SW8W5S7SW9SW6S6S5S5SW6SW9SW9SW6SW6SW5S5
1 day agoSW7SW8SW8W8NW6SW10
G17
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W9SW5SW4W7SW5SW5Calm3SW5SW6SW7SW9SW11SW11SW8
2 days agoW8W10W11W11W9
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W9W7W6SW6SW9SW8W6SW7SW8SW7SW9SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.