Friday, May25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Greenbackville, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:17PM Friday May 25, 2018 2:49 PM EDT (18:49 UTC) Moonrise 3:24PMMoonset 2:43AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 1258 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
This afternoon..SW winds 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1258 Pm Edt Fri May 25 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure will remain offshore through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greenbackville, VA
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location: 38.01, -75.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 251122
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
722 am edt Fri may 25 2018

Synopsis
Dry weather is expected through tonight under the influence of
high pressure off the mid-atlantic coast. Low pressure over the
gulf of mexico will gradually bring a return of moisture through
the upcoming weekend, mainly in the form of late afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms.

Near term through tonight
As of 720 am edt Friday...

latest analysis reveals ~1022+ surface high pressure now in
place along and offshore the mid-atlantic coast. Old frontal
boundary in the process of washing out from sc into the deep
south this morning.

Slightly warmer today, as thicknesses increase slightly on
light s-sw W the surface high shifting further offshore.

Conshort... MOS and local thickness tool in good agreement
supporting highs into the mid to upper 80s (upr 70s low
immediate coast).

Mainly clear once again tonight. Some patchy fog once again
possible along the SE coastal plain late. Otherwise, slightly
milder and a bit more muggy. Lows mainly in the 60s.

Short term Saturday through Sunday
As of 400 am edt Friday...

outlook for the weekend will key on disturbance near the
yucatan western caribbean. Models continue to have issues with
respect to timing the upper trough digging south from the
western great lakes toward the western gulf of mexico, and the
resultant ejecting surface wave into the eastern gulf on
Sunday. However, regardless of the fine details, weak upper
ridging aloft and southerly low-level flow will gradually
integrate more moisture back toward the region, as numerous
shortwaves shunt the deep tropical moisture feed over the west
caribbean north across the deep south and toward the local area.

Pw values increase to 1.75-2" once again over the piedmont into
the DELMARVA Saturday night Sunday. This will result in a
gradual increase in humidity locally through the day Saturday,
due to sustained southerly flow from the gomex, and a mainly
diurnal chance of showers and thunderstorms both Saturday and
Sunday. Still a few model cycles away from getting details
hammered out, but given the heavy rainfall of only 5 to 7 days
ago, will need to be on guard for locally heavy rainfall
potential during this period, especially over the northern half
of the area with a quasi-stationary boundary lingering just to
the north.

Not quite as warm but noticeably more humid each day over the
weekend. Highs Sat Sun in the mid 80s, except slightly cooler
immediate coast. Lows from the mid 60s to low 70s.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

still much uncertainty with both the track and amount of
moisture associated with any tropical system from the end of the
holiday weekend into the middle of next week. Both the
gfs ECMWF stall the system over the gulf coast states but differ
on the amount of moisture making it this far north. 00z
ecmwf ecs keeps the deepest moisture south southeast, due to
retrograding the upper low over the tn valley. Meanwhile the 00z
gfs shows periodic atlantic and tropical moisture drifting
north along a stalled boundary across the region.

Upshot will be to keep pops in each day, highest across the south
and thunder chances mainly during the aftn eve Mon tue. Pops
cont Wed Thu as the tropical moisture gets caught in the
westerlies and tracks ene. Highs upr 70s-mid 80s. Lows mid 60s-
lwr 70s.

Aviation 11z Friday through Tuesday
As of 720 am edt Friday...

mainly clear sky across area terminals, withVFR conditions
anticipated through the 12z TAF period on light s-sw winds.

Some patchy fog (MVFR vsby) is possible once again SE terminals
late tonight.

Outlook... Expect moisture to increase for the upcoming holiday
weekend with scattered showers t-storms possible each
afternoon evening from sat-mon. Periodic flight restrictions
will be possible in around tstms.

Marine
As of 400 am edt Friday...

latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered just off the coast.

The high slides farther offshore today, allowing for southerly flow
to develop, mainly 10-15 kt, with 1-2 ft waves seas. Similar pattern
into the weekend with high pressure offshore. Seas build up to 3-4
ft by Sat sat night as sly flow continues. Wind speeds AOB 15 kt
through this period. Sub-sca conditions continue into early next
week.

Hydrology
As of 200 am edt Friday...

flood warning for the appomattox at mattoax has been cancelled,
as have river flood warnings on the mattaponi and kerr lake.

Despite a few scattered road closures that remain per vdot,
river levels have dropped below flood stage.

A flood warning remains in effect for the nottoway river at
sebrell as the river will crest just above minor stage this
evening or tonight. See flwakq and flsakq for more details.

Tides coastal flooding
Levels should reach action stage at bishops head Friday night
due to the south channeling.

Climate
As of 330 pm edt Thursday...

* ric monthly rainfall total through 5 23 is 10.25" which now
ranks as the wettest may on record. (breaking the old record
of 9.79" in 2016). (precipitation records date back to 1880).

* sby monthly rainfall total through 5 23 is 8.63" which
already ranks as 3rd wettest may on record (wettest is 10.38"
in 1948). (precipitation records date back to 1906).

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Mam
short term... Jdm mam
long term... Mpr
aviation... Mam
marine... Mpr
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 18 mi79 min 66°F2 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 27 mi79 min SSW 14 G 18 70°F 71°F1017.9 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 32 mi79 min SE 11 G 17 79°F 77°F1018.1 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi79 min S 16 G 19 77°F 77°F1017.6 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 47 mi79 min S 9.9 G 11 1018.9 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 48 mi119 min SSW 14 G 16 65°F 64°F2 ft1018.1 hPa (-1.6)65°F

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA7 mi56 minS 15 G 2210.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F64°F55%1017.2 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi56 minWSW 13 G 1910.00 miFair83°F57°F43%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10E6SE7E6SE7SE7S5S4SW6SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW66SW8SW7S9S14S15
G22
1 day agoNW9NW10NW12N5------------------------NW7NW8N7N7E9E9E9E12
2 days agoS9S8S9S9S8SW6CalmSW9W5W6W5SW10SW11SW5SW4SW5SW8W11W10
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for Franklin City, Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Franklin City
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:52 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:08 AM EDT     0.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:13 PM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:47 PM EDT     0.77 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.10.10.10.30.50.60.70.60.60.40.30.20.1000.20.40.60.70.80.70.60.5

Tide / Current Tables for Chincoteague Channel (south end), Chincoteague Bay, Virginia
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Chincoteague Channel (south end)
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:30 AM EDT     2.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:49 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:00 PM EDT     2.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.40.91.41.92.22.21.91.410.50.1-00.20.71.31.92.32.52.41.91.40.90.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.