Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 1:41 AM   Moonset 11:40 AM

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PZZ530 San Pablo Bay, Suisun Bay, The West Delta And The San Francisco Bay North Of The Bay Bridge- 251 Pm Pdt Wed May 1 2024
Tonight - NW winds 20 to 30 knots. Thu - W winds 15 to 20 knots. Thu night - W winds 15 to 20 knots. Fri - W winds 10 to 15 knots. Fri night - W winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Sat - SW winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Rain likely. Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 knots. Mon - W winds 10 to 15 knots.

PZZ500 251 Pm Pdt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
expect breezy and gusty winds continue through Friday, with gale force gusts of 40 to 45 knots possible in the outer waters. Strong winds will result in hazardous seas and steep wind waves with significant wave heights reaching 12 to 18 feet in the outer waters. Conditions gradually improve over the weekend and into next week as winds begin to ease. Rain chances begin early Saturday as a trough descends over the region.

FXUS66 KSTO 012059 AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 159 PM PDT Wed May 1 2024


Synopsis
Gusty north winds weaken this evening. Dry and mild weather with breezy winds through Friday. Precipitation chances return this weekend.

We had a blustery start to the month of May today throughout the Valley as winds reached 30-35 mph in several places in the Sac Valley along the I-5 corridor. The Wind Advisory has been cancelled, but northerly winds will remain breezy as they gradually weekend this evening. Widespread gusty north winds return on Thursday, but remain below advisory criteria. Gusts are forecast to be between 20-30 mph. Otherwise, dry and mild weather will continue through the remainder of the work week with highs in the Central Valley in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The warmest day of the week will be on Friday with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Valley high temperatures plummet into the 60s as a storm system moves into the area on Saturday.

Confidence is increasing that we'll see a rapid change back to cool and unsettled weather this weekend as a strong trough digs south into NorCal from the Gulf of Alaska bringing widespread precipitation, high elevation snow, and isolated thunderstorms over the weekend.



.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)...
Ensemble guidance is beginning to come into agreement on the general synoptic evolution of a trough digging toward interior NorCal from the Pacific Northwest over the weekend. This pattern shift will result in the return of active weather, with rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, high elevation mountain snow, and gusty winds all possible on Saturday, with some precipitation impacts then lingering on Sunday as well. Strongest southwesterly winds are expected over the Sierra, where gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible, with 20 to 35 mph gusts possible elsewhere.
Additionally, a notable cool down is anticipated over the weekend as this system travels through the region. Valley high temperatures in the low to mid 80s on Friday afternoon look to fall into the low to mid 60s for Saturday.

While the general synoptic evolution largely remains on track, there are some subtle differences in the exact track and strength of the trough that are leading to some uncertainty in precipitation totals at this time. Regardless, heaviest precipitation is expected to occur over the Sierra and adjacent foothills, with lesser, but still appreciable precipitation accumulations in the Valley. Current probabilities of liquid precipitation exceeding 0.5" through Sunday are in the 15% to 35% range through much of the Valley and in the 50% to 70% range for the Sierra, foothills, and northern Sacramento Valley. Notably, probabilities of liquid precipitation exceeding 1.00" are still in the 30% to 60% range for the Sierra, foothills, and northern Sacramento Valley as well. There is also a 15% to 25% chance for isolated thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon and evening, which could yield locally higher rainfall totals.

Attendant snowfall remains somewhat uncertain as well due to a variety of factors. While the exact track of the trough will have a bearing on the overall precipitation amounts, it will also play a role in the timing and magnitude of dropping snow levels as well.
Currently, snow levels look to remain high, around 5500' to 7500' on Saturday, then rapidly dropping late Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning to around 3500' to 4500'. Heaviest precipitation (and resultant snowfall) is currently expected to occur Saturday afternoon and evening, with the falling snow levels lagging somewhat behind this period. As a result, the bulk of accumulating snowfall is expected to occur above 5000', although some light accumulations will still be possible down to 4500'. Total snowfall accumulations may be impacted some initially by antecedent warm temperatures from the last few weeks as well. That being said, current probabilities of exceeding 4" of snowfall along the Sierra are in the 50% to 70% range above 5000', with 30% to 50% probabilities of exceeding 8" of snow above 6000'.

This trough looks to remain rather progressive as it expected to be centered more over the Great Basin by Sunday afternoon/evening. As a result, some precipitation may linger over the Sierra and adjacent foothills locations through Sunday morning, but is expected to taper off through the remainder of the day. The unseasonably cool temperatures will look to stick around, with Valley high temperatures in the mid 60s and higher elevations in the 40s to 50s on Sunday afternoon. Long range ensemble guidance then keeps interior NorCal underneath broad northwesterly flow aloft through early to mid next week. This will result in a gradual warming trend, with a return to near normal temperatures by Wednesday. Given the flow pattern, some unsettled weather may remain possible next week, but there are currently no distinct signals for impactful weather at this time.




AVIATION
VFR conditions over interior NorCal into Thursday. For Central Valley, northerly surface winds around 15-25 knots, with gusts up to 35 knots possible until around 02z. Winds decreasing to around 12 knots thereafter until around 15z with northerly winds increasing to 15-25 knots. In foothills and mountains, north to east surface wind gusts of around 15-30 knots.

STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Antioch
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Wed -- 02:40 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:05 AM PDT     1.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:27 AM PDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 06:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:10 AM PDT     3.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:39 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:23 PM PDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:58 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Antioch, San Joaquin River, California, Tide feet

Antioch Pt .3 mi E
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Wed -- 01:28 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:40 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:42 AM PDT     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:27 AM PDT     Last Quarter
Wed -- 06:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:20 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:04 AM PDT     1.07 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:25 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:39 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:07 PM PDT     -1.65 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:34 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:58 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:14 PM PDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Antioch Pt .3 mi E, San Joaquin River, California Current, knots

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