Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. George Island, MD

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Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:56PM Monday August 20, 2018 3:01 AM EDT (07:01 UTC) Moonrise 3:00PMMoonset 12:20AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 252 Am Edt Mon Aug 20 2018
Overnight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered showers.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered showers.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 252 Am Edt Mon Aug 20 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build to the north overnight and Monday before a warm front lifts northward through the waters on Tuesday. A cold front will sweep to the east on Wednesday followed by modified canadian high pressure taking hold through week's end. A small craft advisory may be needed Tuesday into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. George Island, MD
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location: 38.04, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 200248 cca
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1046 pm edt Sun aug 19 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will slowly drop across the area through Monday
morning. The front will stall over north carolina Monday into
Monday night, before lifting back north as a warm front Tuesday.

A cold front crosses the area Wednesday.

Near term until 8 am Monday morning
As of 1045 pm edt Sunday...

scattered convection continues to develop across the region this
evening, mainly south of interstate 64. This is due to the the
shortwave trough that is over ohio. The air mass remains
moist across southern va and NE nc so the scattered convection
should continue into the overnight hours, but expect the number
of showers to continue to diminish. These showers could produce
brief heavy rain. The remainder off the area, including the
northern neck and the DELMARVA peninsula should remain dry
overnight.

The location of the sfc boundary is difficult to find as the
wind shift seems to have moved through a line from lku- ric-
ecg. However, there seems to be little change in the surface
airmass as most areas still show dewpoints in the low to mid
70s. The convection seems to be a little more robust south of
the boundary but that appears to be the only difference. So have
modified pops to be higher south of the boundary and diminish
them moving north away from the boundary.

Prev discussion...

an upper low is located over the lower great lakes this
aftn, with wsw flow aloft over the mid-atlantic ahead of this
feature. A subtle shortwave trough is tracking across the mountains
and is triggering showers tstms over the higher terrain and the
piedmont. Additionally, a narrow line of showers tstms has developed
in vicinity of the va nc border along what is likely a residual
outflow or cold pool boundary from last nights convection. There is
also some sea-breeze convection over the md ERN shore. The main cold
front, though rather diffuse, appears to be located over NRN va ne
md de. Temperatures this aftn are primarily in the low mid 80s with
dewpoints around 70f N to the mid 70s s. The cold front will
gradually push swd through the region this evening and overnight.

This boundary combined with shortwave energy aloft should allow some
convection to linger into the evening and early overnight hours,
which has the potential to produce some localized heavy rain given
rich moisture and some lift. Pops will be highest (30-50%) along and
s of the i-64 corridor, with 60% for NE nc, and AOB 20% NE of i-64.

Low temperatures tonight will generally be around 70f N to the
low mid 70s se. Stratus is expected to develop along and N of the
front later tonight into early Monday morning.

Short term 8 am Monday morning through Wednesday
As of 400 pm edt Sunday...

the cold front is expected to stall over NRN nc Monday. Pops
will for showers tstms will be highest over NE nc in closer
proximity to the front (40-50%), with 30-40% for central SRN va,
and AOB 20% for the ERN shore. The surface wind will be NE or e
for much of the region, which combined with cloud cover will
limit the rise in temperature for much of the area. Forecast
highs range from upper 70s for the atlantic coast of the ern
shore, around 80f for the far NW piedmont, to the mid 80s s.

The front will lift back nwd and across the region as a warm
front Monday night and Tuesday. This will occur as stronger
surface low pressure organizes in the upper midwest, and moves
ne across the great lakes by Tuesday evening. Chances for
showers tstms will increase again over the entire region late
Monday night through Tuesday. Lows Monday night range from
70-75f, and highs Tuesday in the mid upper 80s.

A cold front approaches from the NW Tuesday night and tracks
across the area Wednesday. The primary moisture plume will be
pushed offshore and pops will be lower (20-30%) with the frontal
passage Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be in the low mid
70s followed by highs Wednesday in the mid upper 80s.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 400 pm edt Sunday...

drier and much cooler weather settles in Thursday, with only
slight chance pops remaining across nc through mid-morning. 1024
mb high moves east over the mid-atlantic Thu pm thru mon. 850mb
temps in the +9 to +11 degc range spell out quite the cool
down, with surface temps staying in the low 80s thu, low-mid 80s
fri, and warming into the mid-upper 80s through the weekend.

The only portion of our area with marginal rain chances fri-sat
will be in NE nc, where ridging will be slightly weaker. 12z gfs
wants to break down high pressure quicker, allowing for a few
showers over nc SE va on Sunday... Consider that solution tbd.

Otherwise, dew points will be lower late week into the weekend,
helping to make sensible weather more pleasant. Outdoor plans should
fare well for the most part late week through the weekend, and into
the start of next week.

Aviation 03z Monday through Friday
As of 800 pm edt Sunday...

unsettled conditions continue this evening with an upper trough
over the region, and a weak frontal boundary draped across the
region just south of petersburg. Scattered showers and tstms
continue to develop especially along the virginia north carolina
border producing very heavy rain, lots of lightning, and
MVFR ifr conditions. With the frontal boundary in place and lots
of moisture, scattered showers and the chance of tstms will be
possible through the night over the region, although not much
affect to TAF sites is likely. Confidence of a direct impact on
a given terminal is low at this time. Stratus potentially
develops late tonight into early Monday morning N of the front,
mainly at ric sby, and potentially phf.

The front lingers in vicinity of the va nc border Monday, then
lifts back through the area as a warm front Tuesday, with a
stronger cold front moving across the area Wednesday. Therefore,
unsettled conditions will continue with daily chcs of
showers tstms. High pressure builds into the area later in the
week.

Marine
As of 230 pm edt Sunday...

rather tranquil on the marine area again this afternoon, despite
frontal boundary being in the area. Front will gradually move
into nc overnight, then stall, before coming back northward as a
warm front on Tuesday. Winds turn NE behind the front, with some
uncertainty regarding how strong. Appears strongest winds,
mainly in the 12-18 kt range, will be across the northern and
central portions of the bay, and the northern half of the
coastal waters. However, winds waves seas should remain below
sca criteria.

Winds drop off for a time Monday night early Tuesday as warm
front lifts northward, then increase significantly from the
south Tuesday afternoon night ahead of stronger cold front
approaching the area from the west. If models remain consistent,
sca will likely be needed in the 00z Tuesday to at least 12z
Tuesday time frame. Cold front moves through on Wednesday. Model
cold advection suggest winds are underdone in the models, and
would anticipate a period of SCA winds on the bay in the
Wednesday night Thursday time frame.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz tmg
near term... Ajz ess
short term... Ajz tmg
long term... Bms
aviation... Ajz jef
marine... Wrs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 4 mi37 min ENE 13 G 16 76°F 83°F1015.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 7 mi43 min ENE 6 G 8
44042 - Potomac, MD 9 mi31 min ENE 12 G 16 75°F 1015.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 20 mi37 min NE 8 G 11 74°F 83°F1016.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 26 mi31 min E 6 G 9.9 73°F 1017.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 27 mi31 min NE 8 G 13 74°F 85°F1016.9 hPa
NCDV2 34 mi31 min E 2.9 G 6 74°F 83°F1016.2 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 35 mi31 min E 12 G 14 77°F 1014.8 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi31 min ENE 9.7 G 12 74°F 1017.7 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 43 mi31 min NE 11 G 13 1016.3 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 43 mi31 min 73°F 85°F1018.1 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 45 mi31 min ENE 1.9 78°F 1017 hPa78°F

Wind History for Lewisetta, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD8 mi68 minENE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F70°F88%1016.4 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD19 mi67 minENE 4 miOvercast72°F68°F88%1017.9 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA24 mi66 minENE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F72°F91%1016.9 hPa

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Last 24hrW6SW6W4NW44NW4355NW45NE6NE6E5NE3N4CalmCalmNE7NE7NE9E8NE6NE5
1 day agoS8SW12SW10SW8SW9SW7W7W8SW8W5SW5SW8SW5SW5W4W4W9S4S5SW7SW8W8W7W6
2 days agoS3S3CalmS4S3S3S44SW34S6S96S10S5S5S6S7S8S10SW8SW10SW8S8

Tide / Current Tables for Lynch Point, Yeocomico River, Virginia
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Lynch Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:28 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:33 AM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:23 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:55 PM EDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.90.70.40.30.20.40.711.21.31.31.10.80.50.40.20.30.40.81.11.31.41.5

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Mon -- 01:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:53 AM EDT     -0.80 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:23 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:42 AM EDT     0.24 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:31 PM EDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:13 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:51 PM EDT     0.59 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:50 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.10.20.20.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.20.50.60.50.2-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.