Thursday, June22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
French-Rumbly, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday June 22, 2017 10:03 AM EDT (14:03 UTC) Moonrise 3:29AMMoonset 5:54PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 732 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Friday afternoon...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 732 Am Edt Thu Jun 22 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain offshore today. A slow moving cold front will affect the area from Friday into Saturday. High pressure will return on Sunday. Small craft advisory conditions are possible Friday night through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near French-Rumbly, MD
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location: 38.05, -75.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 220917 aaa
afdakq
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service wakefield va
517 am edt Thu jun 22 2017

Synopsis
Bermuda high pressure already settling off the southeast coast
and remain steadfast through at least Saturday. A surface cold
front extends down from canada and is expected to approach the
region Friday night and slowly cross the area on Saturday.

Tropical moisture from the remnants of TS cindy will push in
ahead of the front Friday and Saturday... Then exit the coast
late in the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Showers continue to generate north of the area in md where a
stationary boundary resides. Expect these showers to remain
north through the rest of the overnight hours.

Meanwhile, the bermuda high is settling in off the southeast
coast and will remain there through at least Saturday. A decent
moisture plume from TS cindy is moving north from the fl
panhandle twd the ohio valley as of 22 0730z. Already seeing mid
to high level clouds continuously streaming in from the west
with this feature. As weak high pressure slides north of the
mason-dixon line today, a period of clearing is anticipated
during the morning daylight hours. As shortwave energy from
ts cindy tracks ene from the tn valley SE states this afternoon,
clouds will begin to increase and thicken. Overall, today will
be dry but warm muggy with highs reaching into the lower 90s
most areas and dewpoints around 70f.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday night
Strong high pressure remains in place over the desert SW tonight
into Friday as the bermuda high to the east creates an omega
blocking pattern... Effectively "trapping" TS cindy in the
middle. Cindy's overall movement will be highly dependent on
actual location placement of the ridges over the next few days,
and even more so on a broad upper level trough currently
stretched across the western 2 3rds of the us canadian border.

This trough is expected to start digging into the us tonight,
however the bigger question is how far can it dig before it runs
into cindy and or gets blocked by the bermuda high. The good
news is that 00z model runs are in fair agreement in bringing
the base of the trough into the midwest Fri sat. As this occurs,
surface low pressure located in eastern ontario on Friday will
drag a cold front towards the mid atlantic region. The front
should collect the remnants of TS cindy and slowly push through
the local area Sat sat night... Exiting the NE nc coast Sunday
morning.

So what does this mean for the mid atlantic region?
1. Increasing chances for showers storms.

Ample subtropical moisture (pwats around 2.00 inches) will
continuously stream into the area from the gulf and the
atlantic, and that's before the remnants of cindy arrive.

Shortwave energy ejecting from cindy will bring the first round
of showers storms to the region beginning Friday morning and
persisting into the evening. Storm severity will be highly
dependent whether or not clouds can break up during the day and
allow for surface instability to occur. Otherwise, instability
will be largely contingent on elevated instability from heating
aloft. At this time, SPC has the northwestern half of the area
in a marginal risk for isolated severe storms on Friday, however
850-700mb MUCAPE suggests that SE va NE nc would be more
conducive to favorable strong thunderstorms. Overall,
unidirectional shear and low-mid level dry air seen in
atmospheric profiles suggests that line segments will be the
primary storm type and that locally strong wind gusts will be
possible under the strongest storm cores. Moderate to heavy
rainfall rates within the subtropical environment anticipated.

A break in precipitation is anticipated Friday night with the
loss of daytime heating. This will be short-lived as the
remnants of TS cindy arrive by Saturday morning just ahead of
the cold front extending down from canada. More widespread
showers storms should be anticipated as the front slowly tracks
ese through the area... Exiting the NE nc coast by Sunday
morning. Once again, storm mode will primarily be line segments
with locally strong wind gusts possible... Especially across the
southeastern half of the area during Saturday afternoon. Will
highlight storm potential in the hwo for the entire forecast
area.

2. Potential for localized flooding.

Moderate to heavy rainfall rates over a short period of time
could lead to localized flooding issues Friday and Saturday. In
addition, training of storms on Friday could pose a slightly
higher risk for flooding. For Saturday, warm rain processes with
the remnants of TS cindy could further enhance and or exacerbate
any flooding issues. Will highlight heavy rain and flooding
potential in the hwo for the northwestern half of the area where
storm total QPF amounts are roughly 0.50-1.00 inches. Once rain
begins and we can observe upstream trends, QPF amounts will
likely go up (locally higher possible in thunderstorms).

3. Warm and muggy conditions.

Tonight through Saturday... Highs in the upper 80s inland and
mid 80s beaches. Lows in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s
beaches. Dewpoints generally 70-75f will result in muggy
conditions in the subtropical environment. Lows Saturday night
in the mid 60s NW to lower 70s SE as drier, cooler air moves in
behind the departing cold front.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Cold front stalls along the southeast coast Saturday night into
Sunday as an upper level trough deepens over the great lakes
region into the ohio valley. Deepest moisture pushes south of
the local area Saturday night, but have kept low end chance pops
across the far southeast forecast area. Frontal boundary
expected to remain in the vicinity of northeast north carolina
Sunday due to southwest flow aloft. Isolated to scattered
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are possible across
the southeast Sunday afternoon, nearest the boundary and better
instability, but expect much of the forecast area to remain dry
Sunday. Highs generally in the mid 80's. Thereafter, medium
range guidance drops a stronger cold front Monday Monday night
as additional energy dives down the back side of the upper
trough. Guidance indicates the moisture and instability will be
limited ahead of the front, but given the dynamics, have kept
chance pops Monday afternoon. Cooler Monday, with highs ranging
from the low to mid 80's. Trough axis swings across the region
Tuesday as the front pushes offshore. Drying conditions expected
Tuesday, but have kept slight chance to low end chance pops
across the far southeast given model uncertainty with respect to
the front. Highs generally around 80 Tuesday as 850mb
temperatures level off at 10-12c (-1 standard deviation). Inland
locations (and along the immediate coast) could only warm into
the upper 70's. Dewpoints mix into the 50's, resulting in
pleasant afternoon conditions. Dry conditions forecast Wednesday
as the trough pushes offshore and heights build over the ohio
valley. Surface high pressure settles over the mid-atlantic.

Highs Wednesday generally in the low 80's.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
Dry withVFR conditions today as weak high pressure slides just
north of the area. Mid to high level clouds early this morning
are expected to scatter out after 22 1200z with the high
pressure nearby. However, clouds will begin to increase and
thicken during this afternoon as shortwave energy from TS cindy
tracks ene from the tn valley SE states. Subtropical moisture
continues to stream into the region tonight through Saturday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy
rainfall will be common Friday morning into Friday evening and
again on Saturday as the remnants of TS cindy arrive just ahead
of a cold front. Widespread MVFR conditions are likely with
periods of ifr conditions in heavier rainfall stronger storms
during this time. Breezy SW winds should be anticipated Friday
afternoon with gusts to around 20kt, and Saturday morning early
afternoon with gusts 25-30kt along SE of a line from avc-ric-nhk.

The front exits the NE nc coast by Sunday morning with winds
shifting to the NW and conditions improving toVFR as cooler,
drier air arrives in its wake.

Marine
High pressure is situated off the southeast coast early this
morning as TS cindy moves onshore along the NRN gulf coast.

Additionally, a weak front is immediately north of the local
marine area. High pressure is expected to prevail off the
southeast coast through Saturday as the remnant low of cindy
tracks through the tennessee valley Friday and Friday night, and
then across the NRN mid-atlantic Saturday. A SW wind will
average 10-15kt today through tonight and Friday, with 2-3ft
seas and 1-2ft waves in the bay. A cold front will push into the
ern great lakes Friday and this combined with the approach of
the remnant low will result in a tightening pressure gradient
and strengthening low- level jet Friday night through midday
Saturday. A SW wind will increase to 15-25kt (gusts up to 30kt
possible in the ocean bay), with 4-6ft seas possible out near
20nm mainly north of parramore island, with 3-4ft seas farther
south. SCA conditions are increasingly likely Friday night into
Saturday. A cold front pushes across the coast Saturday night,
followed by a stronger cold front Monday night with high
pressure building over the region through the middle of next
week.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bmd
near term... Bmd
short term... Bmd
long term... Mam
aviation... Bmd
marine... Ajz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 17 mi46 min WSW 6 G 6 77°F 79°F1016.8 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 28 mi34 min W 5.8 G 5.8 77°F 1015.5 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 31 mi46 min W 2.9 G 6 80°F 78°F1016.9 hPa
44089 32 mi34 min 70°F2 ft
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 35 mi46 min WSW 4.1 G 4.1 79°F 77°F1016.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 37 mi46 min SW 6 G 7 1018 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 39 mi46 min SW 1.9 G 1.9
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 39 mi46 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 78°F 1016.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 39 mi46 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 79°F 76°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 39 mi52 min 82°F 81°F1016.9 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 42 mi52 min NNE 5.1 G 6 77°F 61°F1016.8 hPa
OCSM2 44 mi184 min 2 ft
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi34 min SSW 1.9 G 3.9 78°F 1017 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA19 mi70 minW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F73°F79%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW7W6W6SW6SW6S9S9S8SW7S5SW5S5S4SW6SW9SW5S7SW6SW8SW7SW10SW7SW6SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Big Annemessex River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Long Point
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Thu -- 04:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:49 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:25 PM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:51 PM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.72.62.21.60.90.3-0.1-0.200.61.21.82.12.11.81.40.80.2-0.2-0.3-00.51.32.1

Tide / Current Tables for Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current
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Salisbury
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:30 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:40 AM EDT     -1.00 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:16 AM EDT     0.64 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:33 PM EDT     -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:43 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:39 PM EDT     1.05 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.60.2-0.2-0.7-0.9-1-0.8-0.400.40.60.60.40-0.4-0.8-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.40.20.71

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.