Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
French-Rumbly, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:52PM Friday August 18, 2017 2:07 PM EDT (18:07 UTC) Moonrise 1:50AMMoonset 4:30PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 133 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers with tstms likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until late afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft... Building to 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 133 Pm Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold will cross the waters tonight. A pressure trough will remain nearby for Saturday and Sunday while high pressure positions itself just to our north and west. The high will move offshore early next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday night and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near French-Rumbly, MD
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location: 38.05, -75.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 181751
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
151 pm edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
A warm and humid air mass remains in place across the mid-
atlantic states today on continued south flow. The next cold
front will arrive late tonight and exit the region by Saturday
morning. High pressure builds in for Saturday night through
early next week.

Near term until 8 pm this evening
Initial showers that developed early this morning are
dissipating quickly and the low stratus deck that has been
in place for most areas except along coastal areas of the
tidewater and NE nc is quickly dissipating too. As a result the
sun will be coming out and temperatures will quickly jump into
the upper 80s and continue up into the low 90s for most areas.

Ahead of the cold front, seeing lots of clear sky across WRN va
so warming should continue through the afternoon hours. With
dewpoints in the mid 70s to around 80 will see heat indices from
around 100 to 109 across the area. The highest values will be
across SE along the ches bay from the middle peninsula southward
into NE nc. So have issued a heat advisory for that area for the
rest of the afternoon.

Still looks like afternoon convection will form this afternoon
across WRN va and then head ese across the region. The 12z nam
is more enhanced with the convection so will need to monitor for
possible severe as CAPE is now forecast to between 3000 - 4000
j kg. The winds aloft are not extremely strong and the direction
shear is minimal. The mostly likely threat would be wind damage
from downburst.

Short term 8 pm this evening through Sunday
The front slowly pushes southeast early Saturday, and models
have once again trended a bit faster with the frontal passage,
allowing for a quicker end to showers Sat morning.

A strong shortwave trough sweeps across the mid-atlantic states
Saturday night, but it remains north of the area and with the
low level moisture gone, not anticipating much except some mid
level clouds. By Sunday, high pressure will be over the region
with dry and seasonable weather in place.

For temperatures, will continue to see near normal weather with
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 each day and lows in the low
to mid 70s each night except for Saturday night when the drier
air will allow temps to drop into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
Sfc high pressure builds north of the area with stacked high
pressure residing off the southeast coast through Mon night.

A thermal trough develops in the lee of the appalachians for
tue Tue night, and then a cold front is expected to track
through the area on wed... Exiting the coast late Wed night.

Conditions will become increasingly more humid with each
passing day. Sfc features rather diffuse for mon, however
seabreeze boundaries with the presence of ample moisture will
keep a slight chance for showers storms in the forecast...

primarily for the aftn early evening. Thunderstorm activity
expected to become widely scattered Tue as convection develops
invof lee trough. The frontal passage Wed wed night will
provide a better focus for more organized thunderstorms to
occur. Highs mon-wed generally upper 80s to lower 90s;
low-mid 80s beaches. Lows sun-tue nights generally 70-75f.

Lows Wed night mid-upper 60s NW to 70-75f se.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
Early morning stratus has burned off with CU developing across
much of the region at 18z. Developing showers tstms SE of korf
should move offshore before 1830z, but have included vcsh there
in the 18z-19z time frame. Radar suggests tstms SE of kecg will
remain far enough SE of the terminal to not be an issue, but
will continue to closely monitor.

A cold front approaching the region this afternoon evening will
initiate shower TSTM development W NW of the area by 21z, then
moving E ese into the region through 03z. The potential for
MVFR ifr conditions exists as tstms will produce heavy
rainfall, but uncertainty of exact timing precludes adding too
much specificity to the 18z tafs. Have added vcts to kphf korf
since hi-res model guidance suggests decent TSTM potential both
terminals after 01z. Expect precipitation to wane after 08z,
leaving generallyVFR conditions for the remainder of the taf
period.

Outlook:VFR conditions returns later Saturday through the
weekend as high pressure builds back into the region. Some
early morning fog possible both Sunday and Monday mornings.

Marine
Latest sfc analysis shows weak high pressure offshore with a cold
front over the oh valley. This front will track east towards the mid
atlc today, with southerly flow increasing ahead of the front as the
pressure gradient increases. By this aftn eveng before the fropa
conditions will be close to SCA criteria over bay due to ~15 kt
sustained winds and northern cstl wtrs due to 4 ft seas. Not
confident enough that SCA conditions will occur to issue headlines
attm. The cold front drops into the wtrs tonight, with shras tstms
psbl and winds waves seas decreasing thereafter. For sat, with the
front weakening in the vicinity, expect winds AOB 10 kt by the aftn
with 1-2 ft waves over the bay and 2-3 ft seas over cstl wtrs.

Similar conditions into Sun with little change in the overall
pattern. Sub-sca conditions will continue into early next week with
weak sfc high pressure in the area.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz013>017-
030>032.

Va... Heat advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for vaz084-089-090-
093-095>098-523>525.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Ess mam
short term... Ess mam
long term... Bmd
aviation... Mam wrs
marine... Mas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 17 mi50 min S 13 G 14 82°F 82°F1011.4 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 28 mi38 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 84°F 1010.1 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 31 mi50 min S 13 G 16 85°F 83°F1011.6 hPa
44089 32 mi68 min 78°F3 ft
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 35 mi50 min SW 8 G 12 86°F 84°F1010.7 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 37 mi50 min S 11 G 12 1012.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 39 mi50 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 39 mi50 min SSW 8 G 9.9 85°F 82°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 39 mi50 min S 13 G 15 82°F 1011.3 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 39 mi50 min 86°F 81°F1011.7 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 41 mi38 min SW 5.8 G 9.7 85°F 1011.7 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 42 mi50 min SSW 14 G 17 79°F 80°F1012.1 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 48 mi38 min SSE 9.7 G 12 82°F 1011.1 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA19 mi74 minS 12 G 1810.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F81°F85%1011.7 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9S11S11S12S9S8S8S10S10S10S10S9S8S10S7S10S12S11S12S15S13S15S12
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1 day agoSE10S8S9S10S6S4S6S4SW5SW6SW5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S3S5W3NW5E3E7SE9
2 days agoCalmS33SE4CalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmN4NW6NW5NW7N6N5N43NW6NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Big Annemessex River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Long Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:22 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:57 AM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:25 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:33 PM EDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.421.40.90.40.20.20.51.11.622.121.71.30.80.30.10.10.511.72.32.6

Tide / Current Tables for Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current
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Salisbury
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:15 AM EDT     -0.83 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:28 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:59 AM EDT     0.53 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 12:41 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:11 PM EDT     -1.00 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:26 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:24 PM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.5-0.20.20.40.50.40.2-0.1-0.5-0.8-1-0.9-0.6-0.20.20.60.80.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.