Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 4:05 AM   Moonset 5:43 PM

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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 435 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Rest of the overnight - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Today - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers with a chance of tstms. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tonight - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers with a chance of tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.Tue - W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Wed - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming w. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of tstms. Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming nw. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 435 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters during the middle to late part of the week.

FXUS61 KLWX 060759 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 359 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
An active pattern will continue through mid-week as multiple disturbances pass through the area. A cold front will move through toward the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Conditions remain rather stagnant and saturated early this morning. As a result, fog is forming across much of the area. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 10 AM for portions of the Central Virginia Piedmont, Shenandoah Valley, West Virginia Panhandle, and Northern Maryland. The Dense Fog Advisory may potentially need to be expanded further closer to daybreak.

Fog should gradually dissipate over the course of the morning.
Skies will remain mostly cloudy to cloudy through the day, but cloud bases will start to rise heading into the afternoon as mixing deepens. It will be much warmer today, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

A disturbance evident on water vapor imagery over the lower Tennessee and Ohio Valleys early this morning will slowly drift eastward over the course of the day. Large scale lift ahead of this disturbance will combine with daytime heating and the resultant buildup of instability to initiate thunderstorms during the mid- late afternoon hours to the west of the Blue Ridge. These showers and storms will gradually drift eastward, and may potentially impact the I-95 corridor during the evening into the first half of the overnight.

Model soundings show a profile that is saturated through a deep layer, with unimpressive low-level lapses, around 20 knots of 0-6 km shear, and around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Such a profile shouldn't be conducive to producing damaging winds, but may be more favorable for producing very heavy rainfall. Some guidance shows a weak surface trough extending west to east across the area late this afternoon into this evening. That boundary may potentially serve as a focus for initiation of storms. Storms should have some forward motion today, but a few isolated instances of flash flooding can't be ruled out, especially in the vicinity of where that weak surface trough sets up.

Shower and thunderstorm activity should keep going through the first half of the night as it drifts eastward across the area.
Patchy fog may again be possible during the second half of the night. Lows overnight tonight should generally be in the low-mid 60s, with upper 50s in the mountains.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Conditions will remain unsettled heading into Tuesday and Wednesday, with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Decaying convection from the Ohio Valley may also potentially impact the area during the overnight hours Tuesday night. Temperatures will reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday, with highs reaching into the mid-upper 80s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A cold front will approach the region by Thursday, ushering in an abundance of moisture to the Mid-Atlantic. Instability ahead of the frontal passage continues to be elevated, this may lead to some isolated instances of strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Along with the limited severe threat is the isolated threat for flooding in areas that receive higher rainfall totals Thursday coupled with previously received rainfall over the last few days before. Uncertainty is still present with this system, especially with respect to timing and potential impacts. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s for most lower elevations with upper 60s for the mountains.

Soon after the frontal passage on Friday, lingering low-level moisture will probably stick around. Will keep elevated PoPs Friday before lessening for the weekend with just normal springtime precipitation and thunderstorm chances for the afternoon hours. High temperatures will slowly increase behind the front and into early next week, with 60s by Saturday eventually rising to the low to mid 70s by Monday.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IFR ceilings are expected to persist through much of the morning, with improvement back to VFR conditions during the afternoon. Fog will also be possible at the terminals through mid-morning. Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area from SW to NE during the late afternoon and evening hours. VCTS has been introduced at all TAF sites this evening. IFR ceilings and fog both appear possible again tonight after the thunderstorms move out. Gradual improvement back to VFR conditions is expected again on Tuesday, but afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again. The threat for afternoon showers and thunderstorms is lower on Wednesday, but still non-zero.

Light and somewhat variable winds are expected for both today and Tuesday. Winds will turn out of the west on Wednesday, and may gust to around 15-20 knots at times.

Sub-VFR ceilings will likely persist through much of Thursday with increasing rain chances along with thunderstorms for the terminals.
A few storm, especially along and east of the I-95 corridor may become strong to severe. Westerly winds on Thursday will soon be met with northwesterly gusts Friday as a frontal passage occurs.

MARINE
Light winds are expected over the waters both today and on Tuesday. However, SMWs may be needed as thunderstorms approach the waters. The most likely time for thunderstorms to impact the waters today looks to be during the evening and overnight hours.
Winds will turn westerly on Wednesday, and may potentially near SCA levels across northern portions of the Bay.

SCA conditions are becoming increasingly likely Thursday, with an isolated threat for a few SMWs to be issued due to an strong thunderstorms that cross the waters. Improvements return Friday behind the cold front with elevated northwesterly winds in place.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Sensitive tidal sites like Annapolis and DC SW Waterfront will continue to experience minor tidal flooding for the morning high tide cycle before dissipating. Further minor flooding will be possible for the next high tide cycle before improvements are felt in the tidal anamolies through midweek. Additional periods of coastal flooding are possible in Wednesday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MDZ001- 003>006-008-501-502-507-508.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ016-017.
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ027>031- 037>040-050-051-507.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ057.
WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for WVZ050>053- 503-504.
MARINE...None.

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Massaponax
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:59 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:08 AM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:49 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:39 PM EDT     2.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:43 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:17 AM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:33 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:48 PM EDT     3.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

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Sterling, VA,