Thursday, March21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stockton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:16PM Thursday March 21, 2019 7:28 AM EDT (11:28 UTC) Moonrise 7:08PMMoonset 6:43AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 652 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening...
Today..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Rain.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw late in the evening, then becoming W 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 8 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Rain likely early in the evening, then a chance of showers in the late evening and early morning.
Fri..W winds 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Scattered showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..W winds 20 kt, becoming nw 25 to 30 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 6 to 7 ft with a dominant period of 12 seconds. Scattered showers in the evening.
Sat..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
ANZ600 652 Am Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure over eastern north carolina coast moves north through the local area this morning. The area of low pressure deepens as it moves into new england on Friday. High pressure returns on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stockton, MD
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location: 38.07, -75.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 211100
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
700 am edt Thu mar 21 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure along the nc coast this morning slides north
through the local area today. Drier weather is expected Friday
through the upcoming weekend.

Near term through tonight
As of 405 am edt Thursday...

latest upper air analysis places an upper trough slowly taking
on a neg tilt in place over the lower mid-atlantic region this
morning. At the sfc, latest analysis places developing sfc low
pressure over SE nc early this morning, W the associated sfc
warm (coastal) front extending to the n-ne across coastal nc.

Regional radar mosaic showing light rain or drizzle over the
delmarva and extending back into central va. More organized area
of moderate to locally briefly heavy rainfall continues to lift
north across north central NE nc this morning, with strong,
narrow area of upper level divergence low to mid level fgen
convergence. Hi- res data is very consistent in pivoting this
area of rainfall through the area this morning, with rain
chances slowly tapering back for the southern and central zones
as mid-level dry slot lifts north across the area. Precip will
take longest to end north of ric metro, with scattered showers
likely lingering into the mid to late afternoon before drying
out Thu night. However W a potent S W aloft passing through the
area, and with plenty of lingering llvl moisture, expect
conditions to generally remain mostly cloudy lingering low
clouds dz across the north, gradual clearing across the south.

Highs mainly in the l-m50s... Except l60s possible over far se
va-ne nc. Lows mainly in the 40s (some upper 30s possible W of
i-95).

Again held out TSTM mention, with any aftn convection likely to
remain over central SE nc with trailing vort lobe sliding
across to the south of the local area.

Short term Friday through Sunday
As of 405 am edt Thursday...

vrb clouds partly sunny N and central areas... Mostly sunny far
s and SE fri. Sfc low will be exiting across new england as
strong high pressure builds to the west. Compressed pressure
gradient will result in gusty wnw winds to 25-40 mph (noted in
hwo) for Fri aftn and evening. A wind advy may be needed for a
portion of the area, but for now, an hwo mention and gusty
winds in the digital forecast will suffice. One final trailing
s W aloft is then expected to dive SE from the upper midwest and
will keep ~30% pop in the aftn across the northern neck and
eastern shore for some sct showers. Otherwise, expect downslope
flow will scour out any lingering showers, with little more than
some sprinkles possible over the local area. Given slim chances
of measuring in this set up, will maintain pops at slight chc
or less. Highs in the m-u50s N to the l60s central and s. Mostly
skc Fri night with lows in the 30s (w winds lowering... Esp
inland).

Weekend is looking to be dry, as high pressure to the west
slowly builds over the southeast, with gradually warming temps
as return flow sets up W sfc high sliding offshore by Sunday.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
As of 225 pm edt Wednesday...

by mon... That sfc hi pres will be off the SE CONUS coast while
low pres and its associated cold front will be starting to take
shape gather moisture from the oh valley to the lower ms
valley. The cold front will be pushing S through the area mon
night into Tue morning W a trailing area of lo pres tracking by
to the S as colder sfc hi pres builds SE out of canada. The
12z 20 continues to show potential for mixed pcpn tue
afternoon evening as lo pres exits the carolina coast... But
remain wary of that possibility given the fact that each time
cold air has chased ra this winter... There was very little or no
sn. Maintained pops to 50-80% (for ra) across much of the fa
mon night into Tue morning then begin to taper the pops down
from NW to SE into Tue night. Dry cool wx expected wed.

Highs Sat in the l50s at the coast in va-md to the u50s around
60 f inland. Lows Sat night in the l-m30s inland to 40-45f at
the coast. Highs Sun in the u50s-l60s near the bay and on the
ern shore to the u60s-l70s elsewhere. Lows Sun night in the
m-u40s. Highs Mon from 60-65f near the bay and on the ERN shore
to the u60s-l70s inland. Lows Mon night in the u30s NW to 45-50f
se. Highs Tue in the m-u40s N and NW to mainly the m50s se.

Highs Wed in the u40s-l50s N and NE to the m50s s.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
As of 655 am edt Thursday...

latest analysis reveals developing low pressure spinning just
off the NE nc coastline. Sub-vfr conditions continue over much
of the area with diminished vsby in radz and patchy fog, with
low stratus bringing ifr ceilings currently across SE va
including phf ric, with low end MVFR tempo ifr CIGS elsewhere.

Next round of showers will lift across the area over the next
few hours, eventually impacting all TAF sites. High- res model
guidance has done well with showing small window ofVFR as low
pressure and sfc boundary lift north, with ceilings to quickly
deteriorate again at all sites by later this morning. Diminished
visbilities are likely with brief periods of vsby as low as 2sm
in any heavier rain showers. E to NE winds increasing to around
10 to 15 knots by mid-morning, and turning southerly, as the
low tracks inland.

Outlook: drier air arrives from the NW tonight. However, a
secondary trough drops across the region Friday, which has the
potential to bring a gusty NW wind, clouds, and a few light
showers (mainly sby and possibly ric). High pressure builds
across the region Saturday into Sunday.

Marine
As of 405 am edt Thursday...

early morning surface analysis shows high pressure well northeast of
the local area continuing to head eastward and farther out to sea as
low pressure over the eastern carolinas translates nne. Winds over
the bay and northern offshore zones are generally out of the
northeast at 5-10 knots while areas farther south are southeasterly
at 10-15 knots. Waves in the bay are currently 1-2 feet with seas
offshore 5-8 feet S and 4-6 feet n. Waves will increase to 2-4 feet
by early afternoon with 5-8 foot seas expected offshore.

Southeasterly winds will increase to 15-20 knots over the bay and
lower james river and 15-25 knots offshore through the morning as
low pressure approaches the area. The low will move nne through the
area today and will pull north of the region this evening, allowing
winds to become westerly in its wake. It now appears that a period
of sca-level westerly winds will occur over the bay overnight with
15-20 sustained and gusts to 25 knots. There will be a lull in winds
this afternoon but went ahead and extended small craft headlines for
the bay into Friday to cover the forecasted re-intensification
of winds tonight. Chose not to extend the headlines for the
currituck sound or lower james river with this package but the
day shift may opt to include the lower james tonight with a
favorable westerly component to the wind. Winds across the
northern offshore zones will generally be in the 20-25 range
with gust approaching 30 knots with 15-20 and gusts to 25 knots
across the southern zones tonight.

The aforementioned surface low will deepen considerably over the
northeastern CONUS on Friday with continued west and northwesterly
flow over the region. A surge of CAA will accompany a steep pressure
gradient and allow winds to increase Friday night and into Saturday.

Extended all bay and offshore SCA headlines into Friday evening with
the potential for gale conditions over the northern ocean zones
Friday night into at least the first half of Saturday. Seas remain
elevated through most of Saturday so at least SCA headlines can be
expected to continue into Saturday evening before conditions finally
calm down. Sunday and Monday appear to be relatively tranquil with
winds becoming southwesterly ahead of another area of low pressure
to our west. A strong cold front is forecast to cross the waters
Monday night and Tuesday with robust north winds in its wake.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Friday for anz632-634-650-
652-654-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for anz633.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt Friday for anz630-631.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for anz638.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Alb mam
long term... Alb
aviation... Ajb mam
marine... Rhr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 22 mi59 min 44°F6 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 22 mi47 min E 6 G 9.9 47°F 44°F1016.9 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 37 mi41 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 51°F 49°F1014.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 39 mi41 min E 9.9 G 13 49°F 50°F1015.6 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 42 mi39 min 44°F6 ft1016.5 hPa (-2.8)

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA12 mi35 minENE 56.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist51°F50°F96%1015.5 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD19 mi36 minE 67.00 miLight Rain47°F46°F97%1016.1 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD21 mi35 minESE 66.00 miFog/Mist49°F48°F100%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5E12NE12NE14NE15--NE14NE13NE16NE17NE12NE11NE11NE9E7E8E8NE8NE6NE6NE8NE6NE3NE5
1 day ago--N6N5N5N83CalmSE7NE9E12E8SE6E4E3E4SE5E4CalmCalmE3CalmN4N3N3
2 days agoE6E9E11NE12E13E11NE10NE11
G17
NE14NE15NE13N9CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW5NW4NW5NW3W3NW3NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Assacorkin Island, Chincoteague Bay, Maryland
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Assacorkin Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:03 AM EDT     0.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:34 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:22 PM EDT     0.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.40.30.1-0-0.1-0.100.20.40.50.60.60.50.30.20.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.10.30.4

Tide / Current Tables for Public Landing, Chincoteague Bay, Maryland
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Public Landing
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:28 AM EDT     0.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:19 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:47 PM EDT     0.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:47 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.