Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stockton, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:20PM Friday March 24, 2017 10:09 AM EDT (14:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:53AMMoonset 2:44PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 947 Am Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
Rest of today..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers late.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft...mainly se swell with a dominant period of 11 seconds in the morning.
Sun night..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..SE winds 5 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 947 Am Edt Fri Mar 24 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains off the mid atlantic coast through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stockton, MD
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location: 38.07, -75.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 241009
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
609 am edt Fri mar 24 2017

Synopsis
High pressure remains offshore the mid-atlantic coast through
Saturday. An upper level disturbance lifts over the region
Sunday. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday night.

Near term /through tonight/
Latest GOES water vapor imagery depicts an active pattern
across the conus. Upper trough that brought cooler weather of
the past few days is pushing off the canadian maritime, with the
next upper low over the desert southwest. The next upper low is
just off the pacific northwest coast. Ahead of the desert
southwest low, an upper level ridge axis is located over the
ohio valley. At the surface, strong ~1036mb high pressure has
centered just offshore. Not as cold this morning as modest
return flow and warming dewpoints have kept temperatures
generally in the low to mid 30's.

Upper ridge builds east over the eastern us today as the upper
low tracks into the southern plains. A shortwave tracks across
the northern mid atlantic region this morning, with some
showers observed this morning over western pennsylvania. Showers
stay north of the local area with only an increase in cloud
cover across the northeast local area. Return flow on the
backside of the departing surface high increases as the gradient
between the departing high and approaching low strengthens.

Southwest winds gust to 25 to 30 mph this afternoon. Dewpoints
continue to recover, warming into the 30's to low 40's this
afternoon, resulting in minimum relative humidity values in the
upper 20's to low 30's inland. While 850mb temps warm to +6 to
+8c, a large subsidence inversion will prevent temperatures from
reaching their full potential, even with a breezy southwest
wind. Highs generally in the mid 60's. Cooler eastern shore and
along the coast. Temperatures expected to be warmer than
yesterdays high by late morning. Westerly flow will send some
mid to high level clouds over the region this afternoon, with
generally partly cloudy conditions.

Upper/surface low pressure locate over the midwest today as the
ridge axis pushes offshore. A southwest wind and partly cloudy
sky results in a mild night tonight, with lows generally in the
upper 40's to low 50's. Continued dry.

Short term /Saturday through Sunday/
Stacked low pressure weakens/fills Saturday, tracking into the
lower missouri river valley late. A warm front extends eastward
over the northern mid-atlantic region as the cold front tracks
into the lower mississippi river valley. The result will be
ongoing return flow over the local area. 850mb high pressure
slides offshore, with better moisture return expected, but
conditions remain dry thanks to ridging aloft (warm temperatures
and a lack of forcing). Warm, with highs in the mid to possibly
upper 70's under a generally partly cloudy sky. Mild again
Saturday night with lows generally in the low 50's thanks to
southerly winds and increasing clouds ahead of the approaching
low.

The upper low continues to weaken into Sunday, lifting over the
great lakes Sunday afternoon. A lead shortwave lifts into the
mid-atlantic region Sunday afternoon, but the cold front remains
well west of the local area. Moisture also remains limited with
precipitable waters only rising to around 1 inch over the
piedmont. Dewpoints progged only in the low to mid 50's. Have
pulled back pops Sunday afternoon given the limited instability
due to warm air aloft and a general lack of dynamics, keeping
only a slight chance to low end chance pop Sunday afternoon from
the piedmont into central virginia. Dry elsewhere. Given the
lack of instability, especially in the mixed phase layer, have
removed any chance of thunder. Not quite as warm Sunday as
Saturday given the extra cloud cover. Highs generally in the low
to mid 70's. Cooler eastern shore and along the coast. Lows
Sunday morning start in the low to mid 50's with some patchy fog
possible.

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/
Medium range period features a mild period, courtesy of surface
high pressure oriented just off the mid-atlantic/southeast
coast. Main weather features of note a couple of mid/upper level
lows, which will bring scattered light precipitation late in the
weekend and again by Tuesday. The first of these disturbances
traverses across the central/southern plains on Saturday,
dampening as it crosses e- NE into the ohio valley and eastern
great lakes on Sunday and into the northeast on Monday. This
feature will allow for some isolated to scattered showers Sunday
night into early on Monday. QPF will be limited with this
feature. Despite increasing pw values, minimal instability and
steadily weakening dynamics/forcing remain maximized well off
to our n-nw. Therefore, high end chc to likely pop is in place
for Sunday night over our western/nw tier of the area for
sct/numerous showers. Region remains mild in the warm sector
with southerly flow bringing highs in the upper 50s to 60s
northern neck and md lower eastern shore... With upper 60s to
low 70s inland for early next week.

For the middle of next week... Attention turns to a second
southern stream disturbance, which is expected to track
east/northeastward from the ca coast... Across the plains and
mid-south late sat-early Monday. There remains some significant
disagreement with the gfs/ecmwf, with the ECMWF and its member
ensembles remaining more progressive and flatter. Will lean in
the ECMWF direction with the GFS parallel and GEFS seemingly
trending in this quicker direction as well. Still, this system
will be a bit stronger than the weekend system but it too will
weaken as it pushes across the eastern third of the CONUS Monday
through early Tuesday. So while would translate to another
period of showers late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon,
system will again be progressive. Given the timing, will mention
slight chance of thunder Tuesday afternoon west of the bay.

Remaining mild, with highs in the 60s to near 70 eastern
shore... Mid 70s to near 80 south central va/interior NE nc.

Shortwave ridging rebuilds behind this system for Wednesday.

Highs remain mild through the period, with 50s and 60s over the
northern neck of va into md, with highs well into the 60s to mid
70s inland. Early morning lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s
southern sections.

Aviation /10z Friday through Tuesday/
High pressure/fair weather prevails over the region this
morning, with skc conditions observed. Surface winds are
generally southerly at or below 10 knots.

High pressure slides offshore today as a storm system tracks
into the midwest. Southwest winds increase this afternoon, with
gusts to 25 knots across the region. A scattered deck of mid
level clouds is expected this afternoon, with skc conditions
expected kecg.

Outlook... Dry weather continues into Sunday morning. Scattered
showers are expected Sunday afternoon and night. Unsettled
conditions are forecast to continue Monday and Tuesday.

Marine
Sfc hi pres remains just off the mid-atlantic coast through the
weekend. Sse winds starting off the today... Mainly averaging
10-15 kt. Ssw winds averaging 15 kt or less... Lingering through
sat. Pressure gradient tightens by this afternoon as low pres
develops INVOF central/srn plains. While nearshore winds will
become elevated/gusty this afternoon... And (to a lesser extent)
sat afternoon... Cooler waters likely to cut down speeds and will
undercut guidance slightly/keep waters below any SCA thresholds
(though there may be a brief period of gusty/a bit higher speeds
over the waters from the eve into the overnight hours).

The next front crosses the waters early next week... W/
relatively benign marine conditions expected over the weekend in
ssw winds mainly AOB 15 kt. Seas averaging 2-3 ft... Waves 1-2
ft.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Sam
near term... Sam
short term... Sam
long term... Mam
aviation... Sam/lsa
marine... Alb/mam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 22 mi39 min 43°F3 ft
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 22 mi51 min SSW 13 G 15 43°F 42°F1033.6 hPa
OCSM2 23 mi189 min 2 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 37 mi51 min SSW 11 G 15 46°F 44°F1033.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 39 mi51 min S 16 G 19 43°F 42°F1032.8 hPa

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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N20
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E4
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G24

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA12 mi15 minS 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy46°F35°F66%1033.2 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD19 mi16 minSSW 12 G 1610.00 miFair46°F30°F54%1033.1 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD21 mi15 minSSW 1110.00 miFair45°F26°F48%1033.1 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE6E54SE3SE8SE8S10S9S9SW7S5S3CalmSE3S6S8S10S7S9S10S11S10S11
1 day agoNW15
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N6N6N7N8N9N5N6N4N3N6N4N4N5N10
2 days agoCalmW65NW6NE10E6NE8NE5S5S4S3W4W3CalmCalmCalmW4NW5W3NW5NW5N6N8N13
G20

Tide / Current Tables for Assacorkin Island, Maryland
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Assacorkin Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:04 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:15 AM EDT     0.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:48 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:34 PM EDT     0.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.10.100.10.10.20.30.40.40.40.30.30.20.10.100.10.10.20.30.30.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Jesters Island, Virginia
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Jesters Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:20 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:53 AM EDT     0.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:04 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:12 PM EDT     0.77 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.10.10.10.20.40.60.80.90.80.70.60.40.30.10.10.10.30.50.70.80.70.70.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.