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ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 400 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Through 7 am - SW winds 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Today - SW winds 5 kt, becoming se late. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 10 seconds and S 2 ft at 5 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers until late afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until late afternoon. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 11 seconds and S 2 ft at 6 seconds. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Wed - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 3 ft at 11 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 2 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight. Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 6 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Fri - W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Sat night - S winds 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 400 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
a weak front meanders just north of the area today. Various low pressure systems will pass to the north through mid-week, resulting in chances for showers and storms. Outside of any Thunderstorm influences, marine conditions are expected to remain benign through Thursday. A stronger cold front looks to pass through late Friday into early Saturday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 070758 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 358 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
Summer-like conditions are expected through the week. Expect hot and humid conditions as well as daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. There will also be multiple chances for severe weather, especially mid to late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 345 AM EDT Tuesday...

The latest WX analysis indicates sfc high pressure well of the east coast, with a weak sfc trough across the local area. Aloft, a strong upper low is spinning over the northern/central high plains, leading to an amplifying upper ridge into the lower OH Valley and central Great Lakes. A nearly zonal flow is in place over the mid-Atlantic with a weak shortwave passing through the area. Most of the earlier shower/tstm activity has waned, but there are still a few showers over the ern shore, and also down near the VA-NC border. Areas of fog have developed in the piedmont from FVX to LKU where the sky cleared out after midnight with a moist boundary layer. Have issued an SPS for now, and will monitor to see if the lower VSBYs become more widespread (uncertain as an area of mid level clouds is approaching from the west and would tend to improve VSBYs).
Otherwise, mild and humid early this morning with lows from around 60F in the piedmont to the mid/upper 60s twds the coast.

For today, the FA is in a Marginal SVR risk with the primary threats being wind and hail. Low level lapse rates will be a little steeper today compared to the past few days with the expectation of seeing increasing amts of sun later this morning into the aftn. This will lead to decent instability by aftn as upper level flow become NW as the upper ridge W of the Appalachians amplifies. Expect the storm coverage to be a bit less but still in the high chc range this aftn (mainly 40-50%), with a bit lower coverage over the SW zones. The best instability will over the SE (just inland from the coast) this aftn. Highs will range from the low-mid 80s across most of the region, though temperatures near the coast may drop off by later aftn as the weak sfc pattern allows for some backing of the winds near the coast. Storms should diminish in coverage this evening, with manly dry conditions overnight. There is a decent signal for marine fog along the ern shore and this could affect the entire ern shore later tonight. Warm with lows mainly in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Multiple rounds of shortwaves in a varying flow aloft plus a lee trough and the approach of a cold front, will lead to off and on shower/storm chances Tue through Thu. These will likely follow a generally diurnal pattern with the best chances in the aftn through late evening. Increasingly warmer conditions are expected for Tue and Wed, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s Tue, and in the mid 80s to around 90 Wed. Not as warm on Thu with highs mainly in the 80s. Summer-like heat and humidity will ensure presence of instability all three days. A ridge briefly builds just to the W of the region on Tue, placing the local area in NW flow aloft. There does look to be increasing shear, so cannot rule out severe weather. The SPC has placed areas W of the bay in a marginal risk for Tue. The flow aloft then turns back to the WSW for Wed and strengthens, which will allow shear to continue to grow. Thus, there is also a marginal risk on Wed. A cold front will move towards the region Thu, as flow aloft further strengthens ahead of a trough. Ahead of the front, (quasi) linear convection is likely to pass through the FA. While there is still some uncertainty, Thu has the potential for the highest coverage of severe storms this week.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Showers/tstms will exit out to sea Thu night, as a cold front pushes to the coast. Then, a secondary front and upper trough will push across the region Fri through Fri evening, producing the chance for more showers. Lows Thu night in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs on Fri mainly in the lower to mid 70s. The weekend looks to be considerably drier, but will keep a slight to small chance of showers (isolated thunder) for Sat aftn through Sun. Dry air also means lower humidity with dewpoints dropping into the 40s-50s. Just below normal to normal temps expected for Sat through Mon. Highs will be in the lower 70s Sat, in the lower to mid 70s Sun, and in the mid to upper 70s Mon.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 740 PM EDT Monday...

Scattered showers and storms continue this evening with locally heavy rain and IFR VIS. CIGs were generally VFR/MVFR. CIGs are expected to lower overnight to MVFR/IFR with the best chance for IFR CIGs where storms have been riding a boundary late this afternoon and evening (N portions of the FA including RIC and SBY). Lower confidence exists for ORF/PHF with ECG likely to remain MVFR. Showers taper off from W to E overnight and into Tue morning with CIGs improving to MVFR by early-mid morning.
Additionally, with the locally heavy rainfall this evening, expect patchy to locally dense fog to develop inland (over areas that received the most rain). MVFR/IFR VIS is possible with the fog. Any fog quickly erodes after sunrise. CIGs remain VFR/MVFR Tue with isolated to scattered storms developing in the afternoon and evening. Models are also beginning to hint that a marine layer pushes onshore over the Eastern Shore Tue night with IFR/LIFR CIGs and fog possible. Winds remain generally light and variable overnight apart from SW winds 5-10 kt across SE VA/NE NC. Winds become variable ~5 kt N and SW ~10 kt S Tue afternoon.

Outlook...A warmer, more summerlike pattern will prevail Tue night through Thu, with chances for storms each aftn/evening.
The greatest chance for storms is Thu with strong to severe storms possible.

MARINE
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Surface high pressure continues to move further offshore this afternoon, while a stalled frontal boundary remains just north of the local waters. Current conditions are rather benign with west/southwesterly winds around 8-12kt. Waves are 1 foot or less with seas of 2-3ft. This trend looks to persist through Wednesday with winds from the south-southeast to southwest around 10kt. There may be occasional gusts to 20kt keeping conditions below SCA criteria. However, there will be chances for thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, which could produce erratic, strong wind gusts over the waters. Otherwise, southwest winds will gradually increase some ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday. Models differ in the expected speeds/overall pattern, but will keep an eye on the potential for SCA conditions at least across the Bay Friday/Friday night as winds turn northwesterly behind the front.
Rain/storm chances continue through the remainder of the week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...

Some nuisance to localized low-end minor flooding (Bishops Head)
will still be possible with the higher diurnal astronomical tides early Tuesday morning and again early Wednesday morning. Guidance suggests the high tide cycle early Thursday morning could see a bit more in the way of low-end minor flooding over the mid/upper Bay - due mostly to astronomical tides climbing slightly by late this week as we approach the new moon phase.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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