Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 3:14 AM   Moonset 3:17 PM

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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 445 Am Edt Sat May 4 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late tonight - .
Rest of the overnight - E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less. Today - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.Mon night - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue - SW winds 5 kt - .becoming s. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 445 Am Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a boundary will remain to the south and west of the waters through Saturday night before returning as a warm front Sunday into Monday. Another cold front will stall near the waters for the middle and latter portions of next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Sunday and Sunday night.

FXUS61 KLWX 040759 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 359 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
A stalled frontal boundary will remain draped to the south of the forecast area throughout the weekend, bringing on and off showers and possible thunderstorms. A secondary cold front will move through the area on Monday before lifting as a warm front on Tuesday. This will bring a prolonged period of unsettled weather through next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A cold front will remain stalled just west of the forecast area throughout the day, bringing rain showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Onshore flow will provide plenty of moisture for cloudy skies, rain showers, and drizzle throughout the day.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Cooler conditions combined with plenty of cloud cover will hinder thunderstorm development. WPC has the westernmost portions of the forecast area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Isolated instances of flooding are possible, though dry antecedent conditions and 24-hour QPF values less than an inch will lead to most of the rainfall being beneficial.

Rain showers continue overnight with thunderstorm chances dwindling this afternoon. Moisture aloft will deepen overnight, leading to heavier rainfall overnight. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s areawide.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The aforementioned cold front stalled to our south, will lift through the forecast area on Sunday. This will bring noticeably warmer temperatures with highs in the 60s to low 70s throughout the area. Additionally, rain shower and thunderstorm chances will continue both Sunday and Monday. Thunderstorm chances will peak in the afternoon as instability increases with SPC having the forecast area in a general thunder risk each day.

High temperatures will continue to warm on Monday due to southerly flow ushering warm air. High temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s areawide. Those at highest elevations will stay in the upper 60s throughout the day. Overnight low temperatures will stay in the upper 50s to low 60s each night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Conditions will remain active through the long term period. A potent shortwave trough and associated area of low pressure will track across the Upper Midwest toward the western Great Lakes on Tuesday, and then across southern Ontario/Quebec on Wednesday. A surge of warm/moist advection will ensue at low levels in response on Tuesday as a warm front lifts northward through the area. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms appear likely on Tuesday in response to the combination of daytime heating and low level warm/moist advection on the synoptic scale. High temperatures on Tuesday should reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Low-level forcing for ascent decreases somewhat on Wednesday as we move into the open warm sector and low-level flow turns westerly.
Thunderstorms will be possible again Wednesday afternoon, but the coverage of storms should be considerably lower than Tuesday. In westerly low-level flow, a lee trough may serve as a potential focus for the development of storms. It will be noticeably warmer on Tuesday, with high temperatures expected to be in the mid-upper 80s.

A prominent shortwave will eject eastward from the Plains toward the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Thursday. An associated area of low pressure will track toward the northern Ohio Valley toward PA and NY by Thursday evening. This system will act to increase large scale forcing for ascent across the area, while also strengthening the wind field through the low-mid levels. As a result, showers and thunderstorms are expected again Thursday, some of which may be strong to severe in nature. High temperatures on Thursday are forecast to reach into the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Model solutions begin to diverge by Friday, with some models driving a cold front southeastward through the region Thursday night, while others hold off on the frontal passage until Friday night. As a result, a wide range of potential forecast outcomes exist. If we're post cold frontal on Friday, we'd have much cooler temperatures, and dry conditions. However, if the front remains upstream of the area, we'd have another day with warm and humid conditions, as well as additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Onshore flow will bring reduced ceiling heights and plenty of cloudcover throughout the day today. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected throughout the day as a stalled frontal boundary continues rain and drizzle through the overnight. Winds remain out of the east with gusts staying 10-15 knots possible at all terminals except for CHO, where winds will remain lighter.
Tonight, heavier precipitation rates may lead to sub-IFR conditions.

Precipitation and thunderstorm chances continue Sunday with IFR flight conditions expected throughout the morning. Flight conditions possibly improve to MVFR Sunday afternoon, through dense fog and reduced CIGs could bring renewed chances for IFR/sub-IFR conditions. Winds shift to southeasterly on Sunday, blowing less than 10 knots. Unsettled conditions continue as we head into the week as a cold front approaches from the west.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, but temporary drops to sub-VFR conditions may be possible in any thunderstorms. Winds will generally be out of the east on Tuesday, before turning out of the south Tuesday night into Wednesday.

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through tonight for the Chesapeake Bay with east winds blowing 10 to 20 knots.
Gusts up to 25 knots are possible. Winds increase for the Upper Potomac and Upper Chesapeake Bay tonight, with SCA conditions expected. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are expected throughout the weekend as a warm front moves over the waters and a cold front approach from the west. Winds shift to southerly on Sunday and are expected to remain below SCA criteria as we head into the week.

Sub-SCA level winds are expected in easterly flow on Tuesday, and then in southerly flow Tuesday night into Wednesday. SMWs may be possible either day if thunderstorms pass over the waters.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Anomalies have started to rise in easterly flow overnight.
Persistent easterly flow is expected through Saturday night, with winds turning south to southeasterly on Sunday. Tides are expected to remain elevated through the weekend, with Minor flooding possible in many locations. Moderate flooding may also be possible at Annapolis and Straits Point, where a Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for Saturday night. Water levels may begin to decrease during the day Monday as winds turn southwesterly

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for DCZ001.
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ001-501.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ017.
Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ530>534- 537>543.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ536.

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Fredericksburg
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Sat -- 04:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:29 AM EDT     3.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:34 AM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:55 PM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:51 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

Massaponax
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:20 AM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:50 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:46 PM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

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