Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hollymead, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:09PM Saturday September 23, 2017 5:59 PM EDT (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 9:16AMMoonset 8:25PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 431 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Rest of this afternoon..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 431 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the eastern united states through the first part of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday and Wednesday as hurricane maria approaches north carolina. Refer to the latest statements from the national hurricane center for up-to-date information on hurricane maria.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hollymead, VA
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location: 38.08, -78.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 231836
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
236 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
Surface and upper level high pressure will remain in place through
the weekend and into early next week. The high will slowly
weaken its grip over the area by the middle of the week as
hurricane maria moves northward through the western atlantic.

Near term through tonight
High pressure in control of the synoptic pattern both at the
surface and aloft. Anticipate that tonight's weather will be
comparable to last night. Guidance backing off slightly on fog
coverage, which is slightly curious. Would think that virginia
would be preferred due to light onshore flow. Am carrying patchy
coverage, favoring the valleys of the piedmont and foothills.

Lows in the mid 50s-lower 60s, except 65-70 in the urban centers.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
The synoptic pattern will change little Sunday and Monday as
well. If anything, ridging aloft will only grow stronger until a
weakness emerges as a result of maria. A slight warming surface
through 925 mb suggests that upper 80s near 90 will be within
reach Sunday afternoon. Highs may retreat a degree or so by
Monday. Patchy fog likely to be a concern each morning.

Latest guidance does suggest that maria will be approaching the
coast late Monday into Monday night. It is unclear how close or
what the full impacts will be, although they likely will be
minimal through Monday night. Have increased cloud cover and
pops Monday night... But only enough for partly cloudy skies and
a slight chance of precip over the tip of southern maryland.

Consult the latest bulletins from NHC on the latest thinking on
the progress of maria.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure on the surface an aloft will allow for dry
conditions over the region part of Tuesday. At the same time
hurricane maria will be moving north-northwest over the west
atlantic Tuesday. Guidance suggests that maria will get close to
the nc outer banks and it will stall there Tuesday night into
maybe Thursday when an upper trough cold front pushes it out to
sea. Most guidance does not show significant impact to our
region, but the progress of hurricane maria should be monitored.

Please visit the national hurricane center's website
hurricanes.Gov for more information.

The cold front that is expected to move through our CWA on Thursday
will increasing the chance of showers over our area. Dry conditions
return behind it later on Thursday and Friday. Another front
approaches on Saturday.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
Vfr flight conditions will prevail for the valid TAF period,
aside from early morning fog concerns. Cho mrb terminals will be
the most impacted. Am forecasting MVFR at this point. Ifr
possible, but its likely to be brief and would be tough to
pinpoint.

The pattern will be similar through Monday. There may be an
increase in cloud cover on Monday night in advance of maria; its
extent unclear at this point.

MainlyVFR conditions expected Tuesday into Thursday but some
sub-vfr conditions possible later with maybe some showers
around. A further deviation northwest in the track of maria
could bring worse conditions. Refer to latest NHC statements for
up-to-date information on maria.

Marine
Light north flow (10 kt or less) will prevail thorugh Monday
night. Wind gusts increase Tuesday into Thursday with hurricane
maria over the west atlantic ocean. Small craft advisory
anticipated. If the storm's track deviates further northwest,
more significant impacts are possible (though not likely). Refer
to latest NHC statements for up- to-date information on maria.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels remain between a foot and a foot and a half above
astronomical normals. There has been a slight weakening in this
influx though, something that guidance suggests will continue.

Further, the daytime tide cycle is the lower astronomically. So
while the pattern will support minor inundation for several
days, confidence in any inundation is highest for the upcoming
tide cycle. Ensemble guidance supports this approach.

As a result, will not extend advisory beyond the overnight cycle
for dc alexandria and annapolis. Did extend through Sunday for
st marys and calvert (due to solomons only).

Beyond that, will need to monitor trends and latest guidance.

Anticipate the threat of minor inundation at sensitive
locations will be an issue for several days at least.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Coastal flood advisory until 2 am edt Sunday for dcz001.

Md... Coastal flood advisory until 8 am edt Sunday for mdz017-018.

Coastal flood advisory until 1 am edt Sunday for mdz014.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 2 am edt Sunday for vaz054.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Je
near term... Hts
short term... Hts
long term... Imr
aviation... Hts imr
marine... Hts imr
tides coastal flooding... Hts


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 92 mi41 min NNW 2.9 G 6 89°F 76°F1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA4 mi66 minESE 510.00 miFair85°F57°F40%1017.8 hPa
Orange, Orange County Airport, VA23 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair82°F60°F48%1018.3 hPa
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA24 mi79 minNE 410.00 miFair84°F60°F45%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from CHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N3E7E7N7N5E8E9SE5
1 day agoE4NE4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmW3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmN4E5
2 days agoCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE34E5NE6NW4E5N3

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:53 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:09 AM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:56 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:25 PM EDT     3.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.51.91.30.80.40.20.61.42.333.33.12.61.91.20.70.40.20.51.32.33.13.43.4

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:11 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:02 AM EDT     2.86 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:14 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:19 PM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.31.71.20.80.40.20.41.122.62.92.72.21.71.10.70.40.20.3122.732.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.