Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hollymead, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:04PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 1:50 AM EST (06:50 UTC) Moonrise 12:02PMMoonset 10:08PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1237 Am Est Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 am est this morning through late tonight...
Overnight..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 1237 Am Est Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will cross the waters tonight into early Tuesday, with a cold front poised to pass through Tuesday night. High pressure will then take hold through Wednesday night ahead of another low pressure system likely to impact the waters late Thursday into Friday. Small craft advisories will may be needed for portions of Wednesday into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hollymead, VA
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location: 38.08, -78.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 130215
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
915 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move toward the mid-atlantic tonight into
early Tuesday. A cold front will pass through the area late
Tuesday with high pressure returning on Wednesday. Low pressure
will likely impact the area Thursday and Thursday night before
shifting to the northeast on Friday. High pressure likely to
return next weekend.

Near term through Tuesday
Rain has spread across the entire area this evening as low
pressure over the southeastern u.S. And a cold front stretched
across the ohio valley encroach on the region. We had a few
reports of sleet mixing in with the rain at the onset late this
afternoon across western maryland, and a report from western
loudoun county as well. All precipitation has transitioned to a
plain cold rain with temperatures ranging from the middle 30s
west of the blue ridge to lower 40s to the east.

Rain will continue through the overnight hours as a secondary
area of low pressure redevelops along the eastern carolinas,
lifting northward across the DELMARVA peninsula Tuesday morning.

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall is expected, however
flooding is not anticipated given the duration of the rain
falling and storm total rainfall forecast between 0.50 and 1.50
inches. The highest rainfall amounts will be found along and
south of a line stretching from near charlottesville to across
southern maryland. Low temperatures tonight will range from the
mid 30s to mid 40s. No major changes needed to the current
forecast package.

Previous discussion:
a secondary area of low pressure will form along the coastal
front in the carolinas tonight before lifting north of the area
Tuesday morning. A low level jet will provide additional forcing
for widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall. The steadier
rain will begin to taper off late tonight into Tuesday morning.

Areal average rain totals should range between 0.50 and 1.50
inches, highest in the southeast. Flooding should not be a
significant issue, but can't totally rule out some urban and
poor drainage problems. A cold front trailing canadian low
pressure will pass through during the day Tuesday and scour out
lower clouds and any lingering drizzle. However, the frontal
zone trough axis aloft will be slow to push to the southeast,
and the area will be located under the right rear quadrant of
the upper jet. So the chance for showers will remain, and a band
of steadier rain may develop from charlottesville to southern
maryland. Upslope precipitation west of the allegheny front will
also continue and eventually change to snow as cold advection
commences. However, a lot of the saturated layer is warmer than
-10c and the QPF will be light, so less than an inch of
accumulation is expected. In the lower elevations, highs will
range from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
High pressure will build in from the west Tuesday night and pass
off to the north on Wednesday. The weather will be dry, but the
jet stream will likely lead to some high clouds. Lows will fall
below freezing in many spots Tuesday night, followed by highs in
the 40s on Wednesday.

Upper level trough over the mississippi valley will lead to
cyclogenesis to our southwest, with moisture spreading toward
our area Wednesday night. High pressure will remain in place to
our north, forming a cold air damming pattern. The high is also
cold and dry -- dew points are expected to be in the teens and
20s to start the night. Temperatures will likely fall below
freezing for much of the area, especially west of i-95. The
biggest question about this system at the moment is the timing.

An earlier start time to the precipitation would likely mean
more potential for wintry weather (and ensuing impacts). Have
used a blend of guidance for pops for now, which keeps things in
the chance category until 12z. Regardless of timing, guidance
indicates a warm layer aloft, so all precipitation types could
be in play since temperatures will be cold to start the day.

Additional thoughts continue in the next section.

Long term Thursday through Monday
A developing low pressure system will move up the east coast
Thursday into Thursday night. Rain, moderate to heavy at times, will
overspread the region from south to north. At the onset, some areas
in the northern half and interior shenandoah valley and virginia
piedmont of our CWA could experience a wintry mix of sleet and snow
or sleet and freezing rain. This could especially be true if the
precipitation comes in early, particularly early to mid-morning,
rather than mid-afternoon. Models, such as the euro and the gfs
bring the leading edge of the precipitation into northern virginia
and eastern west virginia an hour or two after sunrise Thursday.

This scenario would allow for a mix of sleet and some freezing rain.

There should be a layer of warmer air a few thousand feet thick
above the boundary layer poke in from the southwest. Therefore, the
snow factor for a large part of northern virginia and eastern west
virginia should be low in confidence, if not any. The NAM model
brings the leading edge of the precipitation into the same zones
around mid-afternoon. This scenario would result in many rain across
most of our CWA Thursday, except for higher elevations like the blue
ridge and ridges of western maryland and eastern west virginia. We
have a few more model runs to decide on where and when any wintry
precipitation will occur this Thursday into Thursday evening. In the
meantime, it is best to be prepared for a little wintry mix in most
area, especially along and south and west of u.S. 15 from the
mason- dixon line to orange county in virginia.

As most areas transition from a soaking rain or wintry mix over to
areas of drizzle or intermittent rain or snow showers Thursday
night, the main coastal low pressure system will depart off of the
east coast by Friday. Colder and drier air will be usher in on a
building area of high pressure during the period of late Friday
through Saturday.

A storm system over western quebec canada will move east into the
maritimes and bring an arctic front southeastward across the eastern
great lakes into the mid-atlantic Saturday night and Sunday. A
reinforcing area of high pressure will push the arctic front
southward and usher in cold air into our region on Sunday. The
reinforcing surge will just guarantee our below average temperatures
Saturday night and Sunday.

Below to well below average temperatures throughout the extended
forecast. Highs Thursday will range from the lower 30s in the west
to near 40 in metro d.C. To near 50 in southern maryland. These
temperatures are a result of cold air in place, cloud cover and
wintry mix or rain arriving during the day. Highs Friday and
Saturday will range from the upper 30s in the west to near 50 in
metro d.C. To the middle 50s in southern maryland. Chilly high
pressure will be the cause of these temperatures. Reinforcing high
pressure will only allow high temperatures to reach the middle 30s
in the west, the middle 40s in metro d.C. And the lower 50s in
southern maryland for Sunday.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
Moderate rainfall is falling across the terminals this evening
with conditions falling to MVFR. Rain will continue overnight
with ifr lifr vis CIGS expected in periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall. Winds will remain light and variable through the
overnight hours. Conditions will improve sometime midday Tuesday
as rain ends and winds pick up from the nw.

Vfr conditions are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday under
building high pressure.

As the next low pressure system approaches, ifr to lifr
conditions for CIGS and vis Thursday (if not late Wednesday
night) into Thursday night. Winds northeast 5 to 10 knots
Thursday, becoming northwest around 10 knots Thursday night.VFR
conditions developing Friday into Friday night. Winds northwest
10 to 15 knots gusts 20 knots Friday, becoming west- northwest
around 10 knots Friday night.

Marine
Low pressure will develop off the carolina coast tonight moving
northward across the waters and the DELMARVA peninsula Tuesday
morning. As a result, SCA gusts are expected across the lower
bay and spread northward on Tuesday. Reduced visibilities will
be likely overnight in pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall.

A cold front is poised to pass through the waters on Tuesday,
with the SCA expanding to all waters Tuesday afternoon and
night. Gales still look unlikely. A brief lull is expected
Wednesday afternoon with high pressure nearby before winds pick
up again Wednesday night ahead of the next low pressure system.

Small craft advisories likely Thursday. Winds northeast to east 10
to 15 knots gusts 20 knots. Small craft advisories possible Thursday
evening. Winds becoming northerly around 10 knots with gusts 15 to
20 knots. No marine hazards expected overnight Thursday. Winds
becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots. Small craft advisories possible
Friday and Friday night. Winds northwest 10 to 15 knots gusts up to
20 knots.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am Tuesday to 6 am est Wednesday
for anz530>532-538>540-542.

Small craft advisory until 6 am est Wednesday for anz534-537-
543.

Small craft advisory from 2 am Tuesday to 6 am est Wednesday
for anz533-541.

Small craft advisory from 11 am Tuesday to 6 am est Wednesday
for anz535-536.

Synopsis... Ads
near term... Ads bkf
short term... Ads
long term... Klw
aviation... Ads bkf klw
marine... Ads bkf klw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 92 mi33 min NNE 1.9 G 5.1 44°F 52°F1019.5 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA4 mi58 minN 02.00 miRain Fog/Mist41°F37°F89%1019 hPa
Orange, Orange County Airport, VA23 mi56 minN 87.00 miHeavy Rain39°F37°F93%1019 hPa
Louisa, Louisa County Airport/Freeman Field, VA24 mi56 minN 67.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist39°F39°F99%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from CHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5S3CalmS3CalmCalm3N4N4CalmCalmNE3Calm
1 day agoW3CalmN4CalmN5N5CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSW6S5SW6SW7S5SW4CalmW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW6CalmCalmSW3NW6N4NW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
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Tue -- 05:52 AM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:14 AM EST     2.64 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:37 PM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:04 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:21 PM EST     2.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.72.11.610.60.40.30.61.222.42.62.52.11.610.60.30.30.61.32.12.62.8

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:07 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:05 AM EST     2.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:53 PM EST     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:04 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:12 PM EST     2.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.91.410.60.40.20.411.72.12.32.21.91.40.90.50.30.30.511.82.32.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.