Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Girdletree, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:50PM Friday November 16, 2018 4:54 PM EST (21:54 UTC) Moonrise 1:36PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 336 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Through 7 pm..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sun..NE winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Sun night..S winds 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ600 336 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure over new england will accelerate away from the area through tonight. High pressure resumes control behind the departing low and remains over the region through the weekend and into next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Girdletree, MD
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location: 38.09, -75.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 162030
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
330 pm est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure over new england will accelerate away from the area
through tonight. High pressure resumes control behind the
departing low and remains over the region through the weekend
and into next week.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As of 245 pm Friday...

latest upper level analysis reveals strong upper level
shortwave in the process of ejecting NE across coastal new
england. This feature offshore of the E ma coast will
accelerate off to the northeast to atlantic canada tonight, with
the associated (and still deepening) potent sfc low reaching
newfoundland labrador by late tonight. Resultant w-sw downslope
flow has allowed for a mainly sunny, breezy and cool fall
afternoon across the region. Temperatures at 20z mainly in the
upper 40s to mid 50s across the area.

Continued mainly clear tonight. Surface high pressure currently
over the mid-south gulf coast regions will build across the
region tonight into Saturday, with winds slowly diminishing this
evening. Clear sky, drying airmass and diminishing winds should
allow for quickly falling temps this evening. Look for early
morning lows in the 30s inland (some upper 20s far nw) to low
40s for coastal SE va NE nc early Saturday morning.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
As of 245 pm est Friday...

sensible weather over the weekend into early next week
characterized by gradually moderating temperatures, as
previously referenced sfc high pressure builds overhead.

Progressive, quasi-zonal will bring a quiet, pleasant weekend.

Despite the modest warm up, temperatures remain at or just
below climo norms. Highs in the 50s to near 60 each day. Early
morning lows ranging through the 30s to near 40.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 253 pm est Friday...

fairly quiet weather expected through at least Thu night, as the
large-scale pattern will be characterized by a longwave trough
centered over ERN canada. This will put us in NW flow aloft through
thu. At the sfc, weak low pressure tracks from the great lakes to
new england from Mon night-tue. This will drag a cold front through
the region during the first part of the day on tue. While moisture
will be lacking with this fropa, there is a slight chc of light rain
over the northwestern half of the CWA from Mon night-tue. Dry
weather will prevail from Tue aftn-thu night as sfc high pressure
settles over the region. The latest gfs ECMWF gem are in agreement
that an area of low pressure develops over the central ERN gulf of
mexico late next week and then moves nne ne. However, the models
differ on the evolution of this feature. The GFS is fastest as it
tracks it to just off the nc coast by late Fri night. This solution
would bring rain to the eastern half of the CWA as early as late
Friday am. Both the ECMWF gem are slower with the NE movement of the
low, as they keep our entire CWA dry through next Saturday am. At
this time, am leaning slightly toward the ECMWF gem solution. Went
ahead and introduced slight chc pops over SE va NE nc on fri
increasing to between 15-30% over southern eastern parts of the cwa
by Sat am.

Highs in the 50s on Tue will drop into the mid-upper 40s
north around 50 south on wed. Warming back up into the 50s area-wide
on Thu fri. Lows Tue Wed night mainly in the low 30s inland upper
30s to around 40 in coastal SE va-ne nc. Slightly warmer on thu
night with lows ranging from the low 30s NW to the low-mid 40s over
the far se.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
As of 245 pm est Friday...

vfr conditions across area terminals ATTM will prevail through
the 18z TAF period... And through the day Saturday as high
pressure builds across the southeast and mid-atlantic region.

Outlook: high pressure prevails for the latter half of the
weekend into next week with continuedVFR conditions expected.

Marine
As of 320 pm est Friday...

the coastal low continues to lift northeast toward the canadian
maritimes and high pressure over the southeastern us continues
to push into the region with winds slowly diminishing across
the region and at the same times the seas wave heights continue
to fall as well. This trend should come to an end this evening
as the winds should level off for a period time through the
early morning hours at 10 - 15 kts as another weak surge of
cold advection kicks in briefly. By Saturday morning however,
expect to see the surface high moving over the waters and the
winds and seas should again drop. The surface high will slide
off the coast by Sunday evening with a light east to SE flow
developing for Sunday night into Monday. An approaching cold
front will reach the waters late Monday into Monday night
turning the winds westerly and eventually northwesterly Tuesday
into Wednesday before a large sprawling canadian high pressure
system arrives on Wednesday. As the cold air arrives, could see
another period of SCA conditions with the northerly flow Tuesday
night into wed.

Hydrology
As of 1150 am est Friday...

river flood warnings remain in effect for stony creek on the
nottoway, and mattoax on the appomattox, lawrenceville on the
meherrin and sebrell on the nottoway. Palmyra on the rivanna.

Richmond westham on the james.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am est Saturday for anz650-652-
654.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mam
long term... Eri
aviation... Mam
marine... Ess
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 22 mi43 min WNW 9.9 G 13 50°F 53°F1013.4 hPa
OCSM2 23 mi175 min 3 ft
44089 23 mi55 min 58°F4 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi37 min W 14 G 16 51°F 50°F1013.7 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 38 mi37 min W 4.1 G 8 52°F 51°F1013.8 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 43 mi65 min 58°F5 ft1011.9 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA12 mi61 minW 610.00 miFair52°F36°F55%1012.9 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD19 mi61 minW 10 G 1510.00 miFair50°F37°F61%1012.9 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD20 mi62 minWNW 910.00 miFair50°F36°F59%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE23
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1 day agoN7N5N5N6N7N9N8N9N7NE9N8E13
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2 days agoNW11NW7NW11NW8NW6NW7--NW5NW8NW8NW11NW8NW6NW7N6N6NW5NW11
G14
N9N65--N8--

Tide / Current Tables for Assacorkin Island, Chincoteague Bay, Maryland
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Assacorkin Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:31 AM EST     0.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:57 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:43 PM EST     0.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.20.30.30.40.40.30.30.20.20.10.10.20.20.30.40.40.40.40.30.20.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current
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Salisbury
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:23 AM EST     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:39 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:15 AM EST     0.27 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:46 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:43 PM EST     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:37 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:42 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:38 PM EST     0.34 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:16 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.