Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Girdletree, MD
May 3, 2024 1:18 AM EDT (05:18 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:00 AM Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 2:34 AM Moonset 1:51 PM |
ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 955 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Overnight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt, then becoming N late. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 11 seconds. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 5 seconds. Areas of fog until late afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until late afternoon.
Fri night - E winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 6 seconds. Patchy very light drizzle after midnight.
Sat - E winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 6 seconds.
Sat night - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 6 seconds.
Sun - SE winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 6 seconds. A chance of showers.
Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Tue night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 955 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure translates off the carolina coast this evening. A backdoor cold front drops into the region Friday from the northeast. The front lifts back north Saturday night into Sunday.
high pressure translates off the carolina coast this evening. A backdoor cold front drops into the region Friday from the northeast. The front lifts back north Saturday night into Sunday.
Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
(hide/show) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KAKQ 030107 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 907 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front pushes into the Maryland eastern shore late tonight, then inland across the remainder of the area on Friday, leading to much cooler conditions at the coast. Rain chances return Friday evening through Sunday as a series of disturbances impact the region. Summerlike conditions return to the area by the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 905 PM EDT Thursday...
Latest analysis reveals sfc ridge offshore of the coastal Carolinas early this evening. Meanwhile to the north, 1024+mb sfc high pressure is building south from Ontario and Quebec into the northeastern US. This feature is also driving weakening low pressure over eastern New England south and offshore of the northeast coast. Aloft, anomalously strong mid/upper level ridging which allowed for highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland today remains in place this evening from the mid-south to the southeast coast, extending north across the mid- Atlantic region.
Mainly quiet weather prevails through the night, with high pressure in place just offshore. Guidance suggests that the surface low to the north dives farther south overnight, with the associated cold front diving across the MD eastern shore after 10z/6am late tonight into Friday morning. Expect winds to back to the NE post-frontal, with an increase in clouds over the Delmarva for the afternoon, reaching eastern VA by mid to late afternoon. This evening's guidance is a bit too aggressive right now given latest regional observations, and do not think fog will be an issue tonight given that we had a day of full sunshine today to mix out much of the remnant moisture from yesterday's light rain. That said, some spotty ground fog will be possible, with the best chances mainly east of US-13 on the Atlantic coast of the eastern shore. Mild early morning lows will be in the mid- upper 50s across the MD eastern shore and lower 60s elsewhere.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 905 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Increasing clouds from NE to SW Friday into Friday night as a cold front drops across the region.
- Rain chances increase mainly west of the bay tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Lighter, intermittent rainfall possible along the coast tomorrow night and into Saturday.
The backdoor front will continue to move SW across the region on Friday. Models have good timing on the front, reaching the VA eastern shore and SE VA Friday morning, the RIC metro around lunch time, then to the southern Piedmont of VA by late afternoon.
Latest CAMs show some pop up showers for areas mainly west of I-95 as the front moves SW. Have therefore included slight chance PoPs for the afternoon in that same general region. Could not completely rule out thunder as the HRRR mean SBCAPE shows 500-1000 J/KG. There will be quite a gradient of temperatures across the area, with Ocean City likely staying in the 50s through the day, while areas in the southern Virginia Piedmont will reach upper 80s for highs. The temperature will likely remain steady or even fall slightly once the front passes your location tomorrow.
Improved moisture return sets up for Friday night and continues into Saturday. Best moisture stays mainly over the Piedmont, and will also be helped by overrunning over top the low level wedge. The better moisture and lift moves in on Saturday as the 850mb winds increase and have kept likely PoPs over the Piedmont, tapering to low chance at the coast. Even at the coast though, it will not be terribly pleasant in the morning with onshore flow, low clouds and the potential for drizzle into Saturday morning. Have generally undercut the NBM highs for Saturday, especially across the far NW. Highs will range from the mid 60s (or possibly even lower) in the NW piedmont counties, to lower 80s across the far south where some afternoon sunshine is possible.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 905 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages...
- Additional scattered showers and storms on Sunday and Monday.
- A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle of next week.
The backdoor front will attempt to move back north on Sunday as the Ohio valley system approaches from the west. Showers may be more widespread on Sunday due to a weak disturbance aloft lowering heights across the region. Best moisture and still expected along/west of I-95. As such, have continued with likely/categorical PoPs over the west on Sunday, tapering to chance PoPs at the coast.
Highs expected to be warmer than Saturday in the mid 70s to lower 80s, warmest SE VA/NC NC.
By Monday, the warm front will be well north of the area. However, the system over the Ohio Valley will be moving through during the day. Expect another round of showers/storms mainly during Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a stronger upper disturbance moves through in the W-NW flow aloft. Slightly more instability on Monday vs Sunday so more thunderstorms are expected.
We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak short waves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains)
moving through the area. Although we are talking about days 6 and 7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. In fact, the CSU Machine Learning Probabilities suggest a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and again on Thursday. We have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become a little more active by the end of next week.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 905 PM Thursday...
VFR conditions with light winds to begin the 00z TAF period, with VFR conditions to prevail through the night. A backdoor cold front dives southwest across the Maryland Eastern Shore towards sunrise Friday morning, allowing winds to turn NE by Fri morning, with MVFR conditions on the eastern shore tomorrow, especially east of KSBY to KOXB. The front will continue to slowly move SW on Friday, perhaps reaching the other terminals by 18-20z. Some scattered showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm will be possible at KRIC and points west tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening.
Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through through the weekend and even into early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern through Monday. A series of systems will cross the region, with chances for rain/storms each day. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening.
MARINE
As of 905 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Small craft advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River Friday behind a backdoor cold front.
Mostly quiet across the waters after a brief increase in winds to 10- 15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt as the sea-breeze circulation enhanced onshore (SE) flow early this evening. Guidance suggests another bout of marine fog will be possible toward sunrise, especially across our northern Atlantic coastal waters behind the backdoor frontal passage. E/NE winds increase abruptly later Friday morning as cool/dry advection gets going behind the front. Winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. The highest confidence in meeting small craft criteria is in the southern bay/lower James, but the entirety of the bay should at least see marginal SCA conditions. SCA headlines remain in effect for these areas from Fri morning/aftn into Fri night. The bay N of New Point Comfort starts at 10 AM Fri, with the lower bay, mouth of the bay, and lower James starting at 1 PM Fri. On the ocean, wind gusts and wave heights on average should stay below 25 kt and 5 ft, respectively. Should note that onshore flow conditions tend to elevate seas a bit higher than guidance, so will monitor this over the next 12-24 hrs. As of now, seas are forecast to increase to 3-4 ft. The best chance of 5 ft seas would be N of Cape Charles.
Easterly winds subside some Sat morning, but will remain around ~15 kt. Wind speeds tick up again Sat aftn with another chance at SCA conditions. Seas remain 3-4 ft with waves 2-3 ft in the bay/rivers/sound.
The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the S/SSE. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-638.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 907 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front pushes into the Maryland eastern shore late tonight, then inland across the remainder of the area on Friday, leading to much cooler conditions at the coast. Rain chances return Friday evening through Sunday as a series of disturbances impact the region. Summerlike conditions return to the area by the middle of next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 905 PM EDT Thursday...
Latest analysis reveals sfc ridge offshore of the coastal Carolinas early this evening. Meanwhile to the north, 1024+mb sfc high pressure is building south from Ontario and Quebec into the northeastern US. This feature is also driving weakening low pressure over eastern New England south and offshore of the northeast coast. Aloft, anomalously strong mid/upper level ridging which allowed for highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland today remains in place this evening from the mid-south to the southeast coast, extending north across the mid- Atlantic region.
Mainly quiet weather prevails through the night, with high pressure in place just offshore. Guidance suggests that the surface low to the north dives farther south overnight, with the associated cold front diving across the MD eastern shore after 10z/6am late tonight into Friday morning. Expect winds to back to the NE post-frontal, with an increase in clouds over the Delmarva for the afternoon, reaching eastern VA by mid to late afternoon. This evening's guidance is a bit too aggressive right now given latest regional observations, and do not think fog will be an issue tonight given that we had a day of full sunshine today to mix out much of the remnant moisture from yesterday's light rain. That said, some spotty ground fog will be possible, with the best chances mainly east of US-13 on the Atlantic coast of the eastern shore. Mild early morning lows will be in the mid- upper 50s across the MD eastern shore and lower 60s elsewhere.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 905 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Increasing clouds from NE to SW Friday into Friday night as a cold front drops across the region.
- Rain chances increase mainly west of the bay tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Lighter, intermittent rainfall possible along the coast tomorrow night and into Saturday.
The backdoor front will continue to move SW across the region on Friday. Models have good timing on the front, reaching the VA eastern shore and SE VA Friday morning, the RIC metro around lunch time, then to the southern Piedmont of VA by late afternoon.
Latest CAMs show some pop up showers for areas mainly west of I-95 as the front moves SW. Have therefore included slight chance PoPs for the afternoon in that same general region. Could not completely rule out thunder as the HRRR mean SBCAPE shows 500-1000 J/KG. There will be quite a gradient of temperatures across the area, with Ocean City likely staying in the 50s through the day, while areas in the southern Virginia Piedmont will reach upper 80s for highs. The temperature will likely remain steady or even fall slightly once the front passes your location tomorrow.
Improved moisture return sets up for Friday night and continues into Saturday. Best moisture stays mainly over the Piedmont, and will also be helped by overrunning over top the low level wedge. The better moisture and lift moves in on Saturday as the 850mb winds increase and have kept likely PoPs over the Piedmont, tapering to low chance at the coast. Even at the coast though, it will not be terribly pleasant in the morning with onshore flow, low clouds and the potential for drizzle into Saturday morning. Have generally undercut the NBM highs for Saturday, especially across the far NW. Highs will range from the mid 60s (or possibly even lower) in the NW piedmont counties, to lower 80s across the far south where some afternoon sunshine is possible.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 905 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages...
- Additional scattered showers and storms on Sunday and Monday.
- A more summer-like pattern with warmer days and chances for late afternoon and evening showers and storms appears to be on the way for the middle of next week.
The backdoor front will attempt to move back north on Sunday as the Ohio valley system approaches from the west. Showers may be more widespread on Sunday due to a weak disturbance aloft lowering heights across the region. Best moisture and still expected along/west of I-95. As such, have continued with likely/categorical PoPs over the west on Sunday, tapering to chance PoPs at the coast.
Highs expected to be warmer than Saturday in the mid 70s to lower 80s, warmest SE VA/NC NC.
By Monday, the warm front will be well north of the area. However, the system over the Ohio Valley will be moving through during the day. Expect another round of showers/storms mainly during Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a stronger upper disturbance moves through in the W-NW flow aloft. Slightly more instability on Monday vs Sunday so more thunderstorms are expected.
We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak short waves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains)
moving through the area. Although we are talking about days 6 and 7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. In fact, the CSU Machine Learning Probabilities suggest a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and again on Thursday. We have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become a little more active by the end of next week.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 905 PM Thursday...
VFR conditions with light winds to begin the 00z TAF period, with VFR conditions to prevail through the night. A backdoor cold front dives southwest across the Maryland Eastern Shore towards sunrise Friday morning, allowing winds to turn NE by Fri morning, with MVFR conditions on the eastern shore tomorrow, especially east of KSBY to KOXB. The front will continue to slowly move SW on Friday, perhaps reaching the other terminals by 18-20z. Some scattered showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm will be possible at KRIC and points west tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening.
Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through through the weekend and even into early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern through Monday. A series of systems will cross the region, with chances for rain/storms each day. A warmer, more summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening.
MARINE
As of 905 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Small craft advisories remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River Friday behind a backdoor cold front.
Mostly quiet across the waters after a brief increase in winds to 10- 15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt as the sea-breeze circulation enhanced onshore (SE) flow early this evening. Guidance suggests another bout of marine fog will be possible toward sunrise, especially across our northern Atlantic coastal waters behind the backdoor frontal passage. E/NE winds increase abruptly later Friday morning as cool/dry advection gets going behind the front. Winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. The highest confidence in meeting small craft criteria is in the southern bay/lower James, but the entirety of the bay should at least see marginal SCA conditions. SCA headlines remain in effect for these areas from Fri morning/aftn into Fri night. The bay N of New Point Comfort starts at 10 AM Fri, with the lower bay, mouth of the bay, and lower James starting at 1 PM Fri. On the ocean, wind gusts and wave heights on average should stay below 25 kt and 5 ft, respectively. Should note that onshore flow conditions tend to elevate seas a bit higher than guidance, so will monitor this over the next 12-24 hrs. As of now, seas are forecast to increase to 3-4 ft. The best chance of 5 ft seas would be N of Cape Charles.
Easterly winds subside some Sat morning, but will remain around ~15 kt. Wind speeds tick up again Sat aftn with another chance at SCA conditions. Seas remain 3-4 ft with waves 2-3 ft in the bay/rivers/sound.
The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the S/SSE. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but likely remain sub-SCA).
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-638.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD | 22 mi | 49 min | SW 7G | 69°F | 65°F | 29.91 | ||
| 44089 | 23 mi | 23 min | 59°F | 2 ft | ||||
| 44084 | 35 mi | 49 min | 67°F | 56°F | 2 ft | |||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 37 mi | 49 min | SSW 12G | 72°F | 73°F | 29.96 | ||
| WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA | 38 mi | 49 min | WSW 4.1G | 69°F | 76°F | 29.97 | ||
| 44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ | 44 mi | 29 min | SW 12G | 60°F | 55°F | 2 ft | 29.95 | 58°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KWAL WALLOPS FLIGHT FACILITY,VA | 12 sm | 24 min | WSW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 61°F | 73% | 29.96 | |
| KSBY SALISBURYOCEAN CITY WICOMICO RGNL,MD | 19 sm | 24 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 59°F | 83% | 29.96 | |
| KOXB OCEAN CITY MUNI,MD | 20 sm | 25 min | WSW 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 57°F | 64% | 29.95 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Assacorkin Island, Maryland, Tide feet
Salisbury
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:34 AM EDT -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:06 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 04:45 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:39 AM EDT 0.50 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:09 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:38 PM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 02:24 PM EDT -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:00 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:42 PM EDT 0.37 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:36 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:34 AM EDT -0.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:06 AM EDT Moonrise
Thu -- 04:45 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Thu -- 07:39 AM EDT 0.50 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:09 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:38 PM EDT Moonset
Thu -- 02:24 PM EDT -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:00 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT Sunset
Thu -- 08:42 PM EDT 0.37 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:36 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.4 |
| 1 am |
| -0.6 |
| 2 am |
| -0.6 |
| 3 am |
| -0.5 |
| 4 am |
| -0.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.5 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.4 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 6 pm |
| -0 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.1 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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