Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Girdletree, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:54PM Monday September 25, 2017 6:21 PM EDT (22:21 UTC) Moonrise 10:57AMMoonset 9:26PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 618 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft with a dominant period of 15 seconds...building to 8 to 10 ft with a dominant period of 15 seconds late. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 11 ft with a dominant period of 15 seconds...building to 12 ft with a dominant period of 15 seconds in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt...increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt after midnight. Seas around 12 ft with a dominant period of 15 seconds...building to 13 ft with a dominant period of 15 seconds around 5 after midnight. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Seas around 14 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt... Becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 13 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds... Subsiding to 12 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds after midnight. A chance of showers early in the evening.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 11 ft... Subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 9 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 8 ft...subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 5 ft...subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft... Building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 5 ft...building to 6 ft after midnight.
ANZ600 618 Pm Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure remains centered north of the area through tonight, as hurricane maria moves northward to a position about 150 miles east of cape hatteras by Wed morning. Maria will then recurve out to sea through Friday. SEe the national hurricane center advisories for details. SWells and increasing seas from hurricane maria will begin to impact the coastal area today and persist through most of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Girdletree, MD
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location: 38.09, -75.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 252050
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
450 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail across the mid atlantic through
Tuesday. Meanwhile, maria will continue to track north well off
the coast while gradually weakening. Maria lingers off the outer
banks Wednesday, before pushing farther offshore Thursday ahead
of an approaching cold front late in the week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
High pressure remains anchored over the ERN great lakes and
northeast CONUS this afternoon. Hurricane maria (presently a
category 1) is situated ~300mi sse of CAPE hatteras. There are
varying amounts of cloud cover over the area this afternoon with
mostly sunny conditions north west... And low stratus stratocu
cover immediate coastal locations into SE va NE nc. There's no
pcpn to speak of at the moment as outermost bands from maria
remain off the outer banks. Based on current trends will hold
off on introducing low pops until after 00z across the
southeast. Increased low-level moisture along the immediate
coast this afternoon will quickly spread inland this evening
with overcast conditions becoming prominent most areas
overnight. Lows temps will range from the mid 60s inland to the
low 70s along the immediate coast.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Thursday
Maria continues to push N Tuesday, and perhaps slightly W of
due N as an upper low drops sewd across fl. Increasing moisture
and some outer banded features will result in 20-35% pops along
and E of i-95 Tuesday. QPF will be minimal for most areas. Highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday under a mostly cloudy sky.

Becoming breezy along the coast with a NE wind increasing to
15-25 mph, with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible.

Maria reaches about 160mi ese of CAPE hatteras by 00z
Wednesday, around 150mi E of CAPE hatteras by 12z Wednesday, and
then 140-180mi ene of CAPE hatteras by 00z Thursday as some
spread remains in the guidance. NHC has maria weakening to a
tropical storm during this time-frame. The offshore track will
result in minimal rainfall across SE va NE nc (and coastal md to
a lesser degree), generally 0.50" or less. There is still a
potential for modestly strong wind gusts south of CAPE charles
on the coastal waters, and along the immediate coast from orf va
beach to the currituck county beaches (including the currituck
sound). Tropical storm watches for these areas are currently in
effect which may be upgraded to warnings later this afternoon.

High seas and minor or localized moderate coastal flooding will
also occur along the coast. Will have pops of 20-40% east of
i-95 Wed (40-50% coastal NE nc Tue night), with slight chc pops
into the piedmont. Wind gusts could reach 30-45 mph from around
norfolk va beach southward into coastal NE nc. The biggest
impacts will likely be from tidal flooding and beach erosion
along near the coast. Highs Wed from the upr 70s coast to the
low mid 80s inland, after morning lows in the 60s and low 70s.

By 12z thu, maria is shown to move NE to around 200-260 miles
ene of CAPE hatteras, then pushing well offshore by late in the
day. Will carry lingering slight chc pops (~20%) along the
coast for primarily the morning hours. Otherwise, decreasing
clouds through the day. Highs from the upr 70 coast to low mid
80s inland.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Very quiet weather expected in the extended as a positively tilted
upper trough swings across the great lakes and northeastern us
Friday and Saturday. This trough will serve to escort maria away
from the coast and at the same time push a weak cold front through
the region on Thursday night. This will allow drier and cooler air
to move back into the region. Expect overnight lows in the mid to
upper 50s thurs and Friday night with highs Friday in the mid 70s. A
secondary area of low pressure and a reinforcing cold front will
slide through the area on Saturday as the upper trough pivots off
the coast on Saturday. But moisture will be limited with the front
and the best chance for any showers will be over the delmarva. By
Sunday, a strong area of high pressure is building across new
england and down the eastern seaboard on Sunday and Monday. This
will provide dry and seasonable temperatures with highs in the
low. To mid 70s and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.

Aviation 21z Monday through Saturday
MVFR to local ifr conditions are prominent along the immediate
coast and portions of SE va NE nc this afternoon. Elsewhere,VFR
conditions prevail with a clear mainly clear sky. MVFR cigs
will gradually push farther inland this evening, reaching kric
around 03z, and potentially falling to ifr overnight at all taf
sites. A NE wind of 10-15kt along the immediate coast this
afternoon tonight will increase to 15-20kt with gusts around 25
kt Tuesday morning.

Outlook: increasing moisture from maria will result in a 20-40%
chc for showers Tuesday Wednesday. Locally stronger wind
speeds gusts are expected at orf ecg Tuesday night Wednesday. A
cold front approaches from the NW Thursday Friday and pushes
maria farther offshore with conditions improving
Thursday Friday.

Marine
Given the track of maria and the broadening wind field, am
expecting that some tropical storm force conditions (especially
in gusts) will occur over the coastal waters south of the va nc
border starting as early as early Tuesday evening and continuing
into Wednesday as maria moves east. Still a little more
uncertainty between CAPE charles and the va nc border and as
such have opted to maintain the tropical storm watch in this
area. Regardless, it looks like tropical storm force winds would
be away from the coast. In the lower bay, winds will be
increasing Tuesday night into wed. Given that the track stays
far enough offshore, it does not look like sustained TS winds
will be in the bay, but there could be a few gusts to near 35 kt
for a period late Tuesday night into Wed morning. As such, will
maintain the SCA for this area, as well as areas north of cape
charles. Winds seas will start to improve Wednesday night as
maria rapidly moves east.

Please monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast
track of hurricane maria.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal departures currently 0.5 to 1 ft today as northeast to
east winds begin to increase. Expect the departure to slowly
steadily increase as maria moves northward through Wednesday.

Expect departures of 2 to 2.5 ft by Wednesday across the
southern bay and areas south of CAPE henry along the ocean, with
1-1.5 ft departures northern bay into the northern coastal
waters. These values are similar to what we saw last week in
jose. However, the astronomical tide is about 0.6 ft less this
week than last week in jose. This should keep any coastal
flooding confined to minor in the southern bay and areas during
the time of high tide.

As with jose, the main concern may end up being high surf and
potential coastal erosion. Will issue a high surf advisory for
the entire coastal waters starting tomorrow as the swell
associated with maria moves into the region. Am still thinking
that nearshore waves of 8-11 ft are possible starting Tuesday
and continuing into Wednesday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... High surf advisory from 4 am Tuesday to 7 pm edt Wednesday for
mdz025.

Nc... Tropical storm warning for ncz017-102.

Va... High surf advisory from 4 am Tuesday to 7 pm edt Wednesday for
vaz099.

High surf advisory from midnight tonight to 7 pm edt Wednesday
for vaz098-100.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for anz632-634-
638.

Tropical storm warning for anz633-658.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt Wednesday for anz650-652-
654.

Tropical storm watch for anz656.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Jdm
short term... Ajz jdm
long term... Ajz jdm
aviation... Ajz jdm
marine... Mrd
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 22 mi52 min ENE 6 G 11 69°F 75°F1016.4 hPa
44089 23 mi52 min 74°F7 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi52 min NE 8.9 G 11 82°F 81°F1015.4 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 38 mi52 min NNE 14 G 17 71°F 78°F1015 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 43 mi92 min ENE 9.7 G 12 67°F 72°F4 ft1016.8 hPa (-0.0)67°F

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA12 mi28 minNE 1210.00 miOvercast70°F69°F97%1015.2 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD19 mi28 minE 1110.00 miFair76°F69°F79%1016 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD20 mi29 minENE 76.00 miFog/Mist69°F69°F100%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3N3CalmN3N4CalmCalmN4CalmCalmN5N3E9E8E9E8NE9NE11NE11NE13E11NE12NE11NE12
1 day agoSE3S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmW4W3NW5NW5N3NE8NE7NE9E9NE9NE6E7NE3E5
2 days agoNW4CalmW3W6NW5W5W7NW6NW6NW5NW6NW4N4N5N6NE7N7E6E7SE6SE8SE7SE5--

Tide / Current Tables for Assacorkin Island, Maryland
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Assacorkin Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:11 AM EDT     0.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:33 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:35 PM EDT     0.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:17 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.30.30.40.40.30.20.20.10.10.10.10.20.30.40.40.40.40.30.30.20.10.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current
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Salisbury
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:04 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:36 AM EDT     0.45 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:18 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:32 AM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:59 PM EDT     0.54 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:03 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:17 PM EDT     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.6-0.3-00.30.40.40.30.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.3-00.30.50.50.50.30-0.3-0.5-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.