Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Girdletree, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:16PM Thursday May 24, 2018 10:08 AM EDT (14:08 UTC) Moonrise 2:21PMMoonset 2:12AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 615 Am Edt Thu May 24 2018
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne late. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly S swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly S swell with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 615 Am Edt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure will move over the region today, sliding offshore through the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Girdletree, MD
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location: 38.09, -75.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 241105
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
705 am edt Thu may 24 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will push farther south of the mid-atlantic region
across the carolinas through this afternoon. Dry weather is
expected through Friday under the influence of building surface
high pressure. Low pressure over the gulf of mexico will
gradually bring a return of moisture for the upcoming weekend,
especially by Sunday and Monday.

Near term through Friday
As of 410 am edt Thursday...

latest analysis reveals sfc cold front now oriented south of the
local area, extending from w-se from near CAPE hatteras back
into the western carolinas. Behind the front ~1024mb surface
high pressure will build south from the great lakes into the
ohio tn valleys, toward the local area through tonight. This
will bring a period of dry weather to the local area through the
end of the work week. A degree or two cooler, but a bit more
comfortable today. Highs in the low to mid 80s under a partly to
mostly sunny sky. Clear and cooler tonight with lows in the 50s.

Modest increase in temps on Friday, as thicknesses increase
slightly. MOS and local thickness tool support highs into the
mid to upper 80s.

Short term Friday night through Sunday
As of 410 am edt Thursday...

by Friday night into Saturday, we'll see the southerly flow
begin to bring more moisture back to the region as the surface
high slides off the coast and the deep tropical moisture feed
that is in place from the west caribbean gets pulled farther
north. Models are coming a bit into better agreement with
respect to handling of this system currently extending from the
yucatan toward cuba and the florida straights. Model differences
continue, with the ECMWF remains a bit farther to the west,
with GFS a bit east. Nonetheless, models are trending toward
lifting the surface wave north over the weekend, with the
developing, broad upper low lifting across the east-central gulf
coast into early next week. This looks to result in another
increasing humidity and periods of warm, efficient rainfall
occurring through latter half of the holiday weekend.

Pws once again nudge back up AOA 1.5 by Saturday morning and
remain there through early next week. Expect some showers again
mainly in the west Saturday where the southeasterly flow will
get a little orographic lift enhancement, along with typical
daytime heating to generate some showers in the piedmont
counties. After rain becomes a bit more limited in coverage
Saturday evening, the outlook for Sunday looks similar, with
periods of rain Sunday afternoon and night. Nudged MAX temps
down by degree or two (and mins Sat night up a degree or two)
due to clouds and increasing rh.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
As of 500 am edt Thursday...

expect diurnally driven rain chances (highest during
afternoon evening) throughout the extended period. Low pressure
develops in the northeastern gulf of mexico on late Sunday and
slowly moves N NE through mid-late next week. This will allow
tropical moisture to stream northward toward the region through
at least next Wednesday.

Showers tstms start to diminish late Saturday evening but re-develop
Sunday afternoon. 23 12z GFS cmc are hinting that a more organized
area of rain will move into SE va NE nc Monday morning and last
throughout the day. However, the latest 12z ECMWF keeps this
area of rain south of the va nc border on Monday. For most of
central va (as well as the md eastern shore), expect scattered
afternoon showers tstms on memorial day. Went ahead and
introduced likely pops in the far southeastern CWA on Monday
with chance pops elsewhere. Scattered showers tstms will likely
continue for the remainder of the extended period, with perhaps
lesser coverage in the northern third of the cwa. Have
maintained chance pops for most of the CWA from tue-thu am with
some slight chc pops north.

Highs in the mid-upper 80s on Sunday low 80s in coastal areas.

Slightly cooler with highs around 80 throughout the CWA on
Monday. Temperatures warm back up to the mid 80s (low 80s in
coastal areas) on Tuesday-Wednesday. Lows in the upper 60s-
lower 70s throughout the extended period.

Aviation 11z Thursday through Monday
As of 705 am edt Thursday...

the cold front continues to slip farther south of the area this
morning. Drier air will push south behind the front through
tonight, with mainly clear sky prevailing through the 12z taf
period. E-ne winds under 10kt through this evening.

Outlook... Quiet conditions no flight restrictions tonight fri
with high pressure in place and mostly clear sunny skies.

Expect moisture to steadily increase for the upcoming weekend
with scattered showers t-storms possible Sat afternoon evening.

The showers t-storms will become more numerous on Sunday-Monday
with potential flight restrictions.

Marine
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

latest sfc analysis shows a cold front now south of the local area
with high pressure over the oh valley. This will allow for N NW flow
today AOB 10 kt, with 1-2 ft waves seas. The high slides offshore
tonight, with winds becoming sely, then sly for fri. Seas build up
to 3-4 ft by Sat sat night as sly flow continues. Winds speeds below
15 kt through this period. Flow remains out of the south early next
week, and will have to watch for any system coming up from the
south.

Hydrology
As of 500 am edt Thursday...

a flood warning continues for the appomattox river basin.

Mattoax crested at 24.8 ft early Wed morning, just below
moderate flood threshold (25 ft). Rains of the past day or so
have delayed timing a bit, but expect the river level will
slowly drop below flood stage later today. A flood warning has
been issued for the nottoway river at sebrell as the river
should crest just above minor stage. Additional flood warnings
continue for portions of the mattaponi river and for kerr lake
due to ongoing road closure issues. See flwakq and flsakq for
more details.

Climate
As of 215 am edt Thursday...

* ric monthly rainfall total through 5 23 is 10.25" which now
ranks as the wettest may on record. (breaking the old record
of 9.79" in 2016). (precipitation records date back to 1880).

* sby monthly rainfall total through 5 23 is 8.63" which
already ranks as 3rd wettest may on record (wettest is 10.38"
in 1948). (precipitation records date back to 1906).

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Ess mam
long term... Eri
aviation... Eri mam
marine... Mas
hydrology...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 22 mi50 min NNE 7 G 11 71°F 65°F1021.3 hPa
OCSM2 23 mi188 min 1 ft
44089 23 mi38 min 66°F2 ft
BTHD1 35 mi188 min 1 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi50 min N 8 G 14 73°F 74°F1021.8 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 38 mi50 min W 6 G 9.9 76°F 75°F1020.8 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 43 mi78 min NW 7.8 G 7.8 62°F 61°F2 ft1020.8 hPa (+2.0)61°F

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA12 mi74 minN 710.00 miFair75°F61°F62%1020.7 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD19 mi74 minNNE 710.00 miFair73°F59°F62%1021.1 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD20 mi75 minN 710.00 miFair73°F59°F62%1020.8 hPa

Wind History from WAL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W12NW9NW7NW10
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NW9NW10NW12N5------------------------NW7NW8N7
1 day agoSE5SE8S9S8S6S9S8S9S9S8SW6CalmSW9W5W6W5SW10SW11SW5SW4SW5SW8W11W10
G18
2 days agoNE16NE13NE15NE15
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Tide / Current Tables for Assacorkin Island, Maryland
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Assacorkin Island
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Thu -- 01:58 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:57 AM EDT     0.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:31 PM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:34 PM EDT     0.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10000.10.20.30.40.40.40.30.20.10.1000.10.10.20.30.40.40.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current
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Salisbury
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:20 AM EDT     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:29 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:23 AM EDT     0.51 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:51 PM EDT     -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:08 PM EDT     0.67 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.20.20.40.50.50.40.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.4-00.30.60.70.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.