Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Beards Fork, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 5:12PM Saturday November 18, 2017 5:23 AM EST (10:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:03AMMoonset 5:44PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beards Fork, WV
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location: 38.09, -81.22     debug

Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 181012
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
512 am est Sat nov 18 2017

A strong cold front crosses tonight. Many may see first flakes
of season in the colder air Sunday. High pressure early next
week. Cold front Tuesday night. High pressure again late week.

Near term through tonight
As of 435 am Saturday...

warm frontal boundary will lift northeast across the CWA today as
low pressure over the central u.S. Moves into the great lakes
region. Temperatures are finally starting to warm quickly across the
area, particularly across western zones, as southerly flow WAA kicks
off. Already seen quite the temperature jump this morning at the
office, with an over 10 degree jump from earlier this evening.

The winds and precipitation chances will increase as the day
progresses, with very warm temperatures as area remains in the warm
sector for much of the day. With the tightening pressure gradient,
and strengthening LLJ across the region, expecting gusty winds for
much of the day, particularly when the cold frontal boundary arrives
later tonight, in which the potential for the stronger winds aloft
to mix to the surface will be more likely. It is possible that
strong wind gusts over 40 kts will be possible, particularly late
tonight with any showers or storms as the front crosses the region,
but threat is not expected to be widespread enough, or long enough
in duration to warrant a wind advisory area wide. The one exception
will be along ridge tops, where advisory criteria winds are expected
for much of the night and on Sunday. Will issue a wind advisory for
the higher terrain of nicholas, webster, and randolph counties,
along with all of pocahontas county, as eastern slopes will be prone
to downsloping effects behind front. Will leave the wind advisory in
place across northeast ky and southwest va counties. Previous shift
issued this in response to coordination issues with surrounding
offices, although do not expect conditions in those areas to be
worse than remainder of lowlands where no advisory exists.

Frontal boundary will be well to the east of the area by Sunday
morning end of the forecast period. Much cooler air will usher in
behind the front, with precipitation changing over to a rain snow
mix or all snow across the higher terrain. Around an inch of
snow or less is possible across the higher terrain of randolph,
pocahontas and webster counties Saturday morning.

Short term Sunday through Tuesday night
As of 435 am Saturday...

a large, intense surface low moves up the saint lawrence river
valley Sunday and Sunday night, its central pressure falling
through the 970s mbs during this time. This places the
forecast area, along with the great lakes, ohio valley, middle
atlantic and northeast states in deep layer west to northwest
flow, that wanes with time from the southwest, as high pressure
builds in from that direction, into the southern appalachians.

This flow will lead to upslope snow showers, enhanced at times
by trajectories off the great lakes, that also wane with time.

Wind gusts near 40 kts over the higher ridges Sunday morning,
will gradually wane a bit through Monday morning. Following the
main upper level short wave trough lifting out behind the
surface low, a second short wave trough crosses Sunday night.

This leads to a secondary surge in low level flow and cold
advection late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening, which could
result in a second though lesser peak in wind gusts and upslope
snow showers.

Another 1 to 2 inches snow accumulation across the higher
windward terrain Sunday into Sunday night could bring snowfall
totals there up to around 3 inches. Many lowland locations
could see the first snow flakes of the season, but the boundary
layer will be able to melt many of the hydrometeors in the
isolated to scattered coverage there Sunday.

Clearing takes place late Sunday night into Monday morning, as
high pressure builds in, and that high rules the roost through

Another cold front crosses Tuesday night, with limited
moisture. Models differ on whether or not we could squeeze a few
light rain showers out of it with the frontal passage, and a
few light upslope snow showers behind the front.

Temperatures close to central guidance, except a little lower in
cold advection Sunday morning, and a little lower in the
valleys under high pressure Tuesday morning.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
As of 435 am Saturday...

high pressure, with dry weather and somewhat below normal
temperatures, dominates this period, between the northern
and southern branches of the jet stream. Low pressure may pass
south of the area during this time, beneath the southern

Aviation 10z Saturday through Wednesday
06z Saturday through 06z Sunday...

as of 1245 am Saturday...

a warm front will bring some showers... Mainly across the north
Saturday morning, with local MVFR conditions developing,
particularly across southeast ohio, and northern west virginia.

After 14z, gusty south-southwesterly winds will develop, with
sustained winds in the teens, and gusts in the 20 kt range.

After 00z Sunday, a cold frontal boundary will move through the
region, with showers, and widespread MVFR and local ifr
conditions developing, particularly after 02z. In addition,
there is the potential for an uptick in winds with the front.

Included llws at several sites through early this morning with
llj overhead.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Sunday...

forecast confidence: medium
alternate scenarios: timing of showers and associated restrictions
could vary from forecast.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Sat 11 18 17
utc 1hrly 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
est 1hrly 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h m m
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h m m
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h h m m
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h m m
pkb consistency l m m m m h h h h h m m
ckb consistency h h h h m m m h h h m m
after 12z Sunday...

ifr possible late Saturday night in rain, possibly mixing with
snow across the north by dawn. Ifr may linger through Sunday,
even into Sunday night, across the northern mountainous
counties in upslope snow showers.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... Wind advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to noon est Sunday for

Oh... None.

Ky... Wind advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am est Sunday for

Va... Wind advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 4 am est Sunday for

Synopsis... Trm sl
near term... Sl
short term... Trm ab
long term... Trm ab
aviation... Sl

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beckley, Raleigh County Memorial Airport, WV21 mi32 minSSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F25°F41%1010.9 hPa

Wind History from BKW (wind in knots)
Last 24hr----Calm43CalmS5CalmCalmN4SE6SE7SE7S7S10SE9SE9S8
1 day agoW10W12
2 days agoSE8SE8SE8SE10SE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.