Thursday, November15, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Beards Fork, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 5:14PM Thursday November 15, 2018 5:03 AM EST (10:03 UTC) Moonrise 1:28PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beards Fork, WV
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location: 38.09, -81.22     debug

Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 150943
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
443 am est Thu nov 15 2018

System crosses tonight with winter weather, including freezing
rain, for parts of the area. High pressure builds to begin the
weekend. A series of weak fronts crosses Sunday night and
Tuesday. High pressure is on tap for the rest of the week.

Near term through tonight
Miller b double barrel low pressure system crosses this period,
the western center moving up the ohio river valley while slowly
filling, while the stronger eastern center moves northeastward,
up along the middle atlantic seaboard.

Widespread precipitation associated with this system will
continue into this afternoon before a dry slot begins to cut
precipitation off from the south. The upper level low crosses
southern to central portions of the forecast area this evening,
and precipitation fills back in across this area as a result.

Precipitation then quits from southwest to northeast overnight,
as the system exits. Upslope snow showers are likely to persist
through the night in and near the mountains, until subsidence
returns the warm layer aloft, with drying, toward dawn.

Early on, the latest model runs continue to strengthen both the
warm nose aloft and cold layer beneath so that, while
temperatures were just above freezing across the WV lowlands,
and dew point just below freezing, worried pockets of freezing
rain are still possible, mainly on elevated surface and hill
tops. Up to a tenth of ice remain possible in the middle ohio
valley, and in the mountains, with a quarter to one half inch
ice over the higher mountainous terrain, and the eastern slope.

Warnings and advisories for mainly freezing rain freezing rain
continue, as have opted to let the WV lowland advisories to
continue until 6 am.

As the low GOES by later today and tonight, the sounding
profile reverses as the warm layer aloft is taken out. A quick
burst of snow is possible just north of the track of the upper
level low this evening, probably across central portions of the
forecast area, and a quick coating could result, as surface
temperatures fall back toward freezing. Otherwise, snow
accumulations will be limited to less than an inch across the
higher mountainous terrain today, mainly this morning, but 1 to
3 inches are possible in the mountains in general tonight.

Raw model temperatures were used, which changed the forecast
little but kept temperatures nearly steady through dawn.

Short term Friday through Sunday night
As of 212 pm Wednesday...

lingering snow showers will gradually end in the upslope areas
of the WV mountains Friday night as winds turn to a more
westerly and zonal flow. Weak ridging to the south will dry
things out for Saturday into Sunday. A weak cold front is
expected to cross the region late Sunday and Sunday night.

There is a chance for rain and snow showers with the front as it
crosses the area.

Long term Monday through Wednesday
As of 200 pm Wednesday...

weak high pressure will briefly be in control on Monday. A
moisture starved front will cross the area on Tuesday and
Tuesday night. High pressures builds in across the area on
Wednesday. Temperatures will remain seasonable through much of
the forecast period.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
As of 115 am Thursday...

an approaching low pressure system will bring widespread rain
through Thursday. Rain overnight may freeze on elevated surfaces
across the northern lowlands and in the mountains. This would
include pkb, ckb, ekn and bkw. Fzra may persist into the
daylight morning hours at ekn. More significant ice
accumulation, as well as some snow accumulation, is likely over
the higher terrain.

Ceiling and visibility are likely to drop into MVFR from south
to north overnight, and then to ifr at times Thursday. Thursday
night will bring slow improvement on ceilings, which will
struggle to get above 1000 ft. Visibility will improve toVFR
Thursday night, except for MVFR or brief ifr in snow showers.

MVFR visibility in snow showers may be more persistent in and
near the mountains Thursday night.

Light east to northeast surface flow overnight will become light
east to southeast early Thursday morning, and then light and
variable the balance of Thursday with low pressure overhead,
and then becoming light west to northwest Thursday night, as
the low GOES by. Surface flow in the mountains overnight will be
more southeasterly, and gusty on the ridges, including bkw with
gusts to around 25 kts ongoing there.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Friday...

forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: timing of the arrival of precipitation,
and precipitation type may vary overnight into Thursday morning.

Category changes may vary in a widespread MVFR ifr environment
this period.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Thu 11 15 18
utc 1hrly 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
est 1hrly 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
crw consistency m l m l h h h h m h h l
hts consistency m m m l l h h h m h h l
bkw consistency m l m h h h h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h h m m h h h h m m m
pkb consistency h h h m m m m m h h h h
ckb consistency h h h m l l m m h m m m
after 06z Friday...

ifr possible in snow showers overnight Thursday night into
early Friday morning, mainly in the mountains.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... Winter storm warning until 7 pm est this evening for

Winter weather advisory until 11 am est this morning for

Winter weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for wvz033-

Oh... Winter weather advisory until 11 am est this morning for

Winter weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for ohz083-

Ky... Winter weather advisory until 9 am est this morning for kyz101.

Winter weather advisory until 6 am est early this morning for

Va... None.

Synopsis... Js trm
near term... Trm
short term... Js
long term... Js
aviation... Trm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beckley, Raleigh County Memorial Airport, WV21 mi72 minSE 20 G 3310.00 miLight Freezing Rain and Breezy31°F25°F79%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from BKW (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN9N103CalmN6N5N6E4N4N6NE5NE3NE3CalmE4SE12
1 day agoN5NW4N7N9N7NW11N7NW8N7NW6NW7N7N8NW11N7NW9NW7NW9NW9N10N5NW7N5N7
2 days agoCalmCalmSE53SE5SE10SE8SE9SE7SE5SE7E3SE6SE7Calm4N3SE7SE4SE54E3N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.