Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cuba, MO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:35PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 12:22 PM CDT (17:22 UTC) Moonrise 9:51AMMoonset 11:09PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cuba, MO
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location: 38.09, -91.42     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 281622
afdlsx
area forecast discussion... Updated aviation
national weather service saint louis mo
1122 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017

Short term (through late tonight)
issued at 310 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017
primary forecast challenge in the short term this morning is pops.

A shortwave aloft over the great plains has developed a surface trof
extending from the dakotas south-southwest into new mexico.

The thunderstorms currently over the eastern plains ahead of the
trof are being fed by a 40-50kt low level jet and should
gradually diminish this morning as they move east and run into a
wall of low-cape air over missouri. Can't rule out a few showers or
clap of thunder over northeast missouri before they totally
dissipate... But don't think anything more than slight chance pops
are warranted for the morning at this point.

Return flow ahead of the trof is bringing more humid low level air
back into the mid-mississippi valley... But dewpoints are mostly
still in the 50s over our area. Dewpoints do creep up into the low
to mid 60s today, but the richest moisture circles around to our
north... Pooling ahead of the front across southeast nebraska and
iowa. Meanwhile, warm advection aloft should push 850mb
temperatures into the mid and upper teens across much of our area.

Forecast soundings on the rap, nam, and GFS show this warm air aloft
as a decent capping inversion this afternoon which should inhibit
convection into the early evening.

Feeling less confident about convection overnight though. All
guidance fires up convection along the synoptic boundary over iowa
during the evening. The mass fields on the gfs, nam, and rap
support the formation of a slow moving complex of thunderstorms over
iowa on the nose of a 50kt low level jet. Corfidi vectors would tend
to have this complex drift southward overnight... But forecast mucape
drops off pretty quickly from northeast missouri southward.

Interestingly, the 4km NAM nest and the NCEP 4km WRF spread showers
and thunderstorms over most of the northern 1 2 of the cwfa. While
i don't want to discount the cams, precip that widespread isn't
really supported by the remainder of the models. Have therefore
just kept low to mid chance pops primarily over the northern 1 3 of
the cwfa tonight with some slights a bit further south into parts of
central and east central missouri.

Carney

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 310 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017
warmer, more humid weather to move back in by Thursday. In the
meantime, stalled frontal boundary along the ia mo border will be
focused for storms with some training likely. Depending on where the
front is, our far northern portions could see around an inch of
rain, or upwards of 4 inches. For now models have been consistent
with heaviest rain just north of forecast area. Otherwise, main
issue Thursday Thursday night will be possible MCS development over
northeastern ks northwestern mo sliding east towards forecast area
Thursday morning, diminishing and any kind of left over boundaries
to help redevelopment by afternoon evening hours on Thursday. Decent
mu capes in excess of 2500 j kg, lapse rates and low level jet, so
could see strong to severe storms, mainly along and north of i-70.

By Friday, surface low along boundary begins to lift northeastward
dragging cold front southeastward across forecast area. Models have
differences in timing with this boundary. NAM is faster with it
while GFS is slower with passage. Placement and timing of boundary
will be key to severe weather chances. For now will go with a blend
of the two and SPC has placed forecast area in a marginal risk for
now.

Boundary to exit region by late Friday night, so will see a break in
the precipitation Saturday through Sunday morning, before lifting
back north as a warm front Sunday night Monday, with increasing
chances of showers and storms once again in warm sector across
forecast area. As for the 4th of july, how stormy it may be will
depend on timing of next system as it moves through. For now have
chance pops during the day on Tuesday.

As for temperatures through early next week, will see mid 80s to low
90s on Thursday, then 80s everywhere for the rest of the forecast
period.

Byrd

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1100 am cdt Wed jun 28 2017
mainly just mid-high level cloudiness through the period with
most of the convection remaining north of the TAF sites. Showers
and thunderstorms may sink southward to uin late tonight and
Thursday morning. There may be a few-sct diurnal cumulus clouds
this afternoon. Persistant southerly surface winds will continue
through the period with surface ridging centered over the
southeastern us and a nearly stationary front remaining north of
the TAF sites.

Specifics for kstl: mainly just mid-high level cloudiness through
the period with convection remaining well north of stl. There may
be a few-sct diurnal cumulus clouds this afternoon. Persistant
southerly surface winds will continue through the period with
surface ridging centered over the southeastern us and a nearly
stationary front remaining well north of the stl area.

Gks

Preliminary point temps pops
Saint louis 90 74 90 75 5 10 10 10
quincy 86 68 86 70 20 40 40 50
columbia 88 68 89 71 5 10 10 30
jefferson city 90 69 90 72 5 10 10 30
salem 85 69 89 73 5 5 10 10
farmington 86 68 88 71 5 5 10 10

Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... None.

Il... None.

Wfo lsx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rolla / Vichy, Rolla National Airport, MO19 mi29 minS 18 G 2510.00 miFair and Breezy80°F64°F60%1014 hPa

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Last 24hr--CalmE6SE7S5SE7SE7S6SE7SE8SE7S9S8S10S10S10S9S9S9S12
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1 day ago5NW11N6N9
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N4S10SE3S4CalmNE4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4E7E9SE5SE7--
2 days agoNW9W9
G15
NW9W9W9W10W7NW6NW5NW7NW6NW5NW3NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmS4S7S646Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.