Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cuba, MO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:28PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 6:26 PM CDT (23:26 UTC) Moonrise 6:29AMMoonset 7:17PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cuba, MO
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location: 38.09, -91.42     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 282308
afdlsx
area forecast discussion... Updated aviation
national weather service saint louis mo
608 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017

Short term (through late Wednesday afternoon)
issued at 327 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017
clouds have stayed locked in over the area as the clearing over east
central illinois that was working into the eastern CWA filled back
in with stratocumulus this afternoon. Forecast soundings do show
that the low levels will stay saturated through the night, with an
increase in mid-high clouds as upper low currently over new mexico
moves northeast into the plains. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
will move into the area late tonight per the GFS and NAM as the
upper ridge moves east and a band of strong moisture convergence
sets up on the nose of a 40kt low level jet. This low level forcing
combined with increased mid-upper ascent from approaching low will
be enough to set up one round of showers and scattered thunderstorms
late tonight and tomorrow morning. Then there may be a break during
the late morning and early afternoon before both models show another
round of showers and thunderstorms moving into central missouri by
late afternoon.

Went closer to the GFS mos temperatures over the next 24 hours.

Britt

Long term (Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
issued at 327 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017
primary concern heading into Wednesday night is the potential for
severe weather. Guidance is in good agreement that there will be
thunderstorms over western missouri at 00z moving toward our area.

Forecast instability falls of pretty quickly in the evening with
mucape values not exceeding 500 j/kg on the GFS until after 09z.

Nam has more energy in the evening pushing 1000 j/kg, but it tends
to be a bit too high, and even with that high bias MUCAPE values
fall off overnight. Regardless... With 50-60kts of deep layer
shear, can't say there won't be severe storms; but the threat
should stay over our eastern ozark counties where instability will
be greatest. Should be a better chance for severe storms on
Thursday ahead of the low. SBCAPE increases to around 2000 j/kg
during the afternoon. Deep layer shear isn't as impressive
initially at 18z but increases to 40+ kts along and southeast of
i-44 and south of i-70. 0-1km helicity is less than 100 m2/s2 for
the afternoon hours on Thursday so think the primary threats will
be hail and damaging wind rather than tornadoes.

Thunderstorm threat will be coming to an end Thursday night although
rain will likely continue on the west side of the low as it passes
for a good portion of the night. Cooler and drier air will move
into the area on Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will dip into
the upper 30s and 40s with daytime highs mainly in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. There is a chance there could be some rain on Sunday ahead
of the next system as the upper level shortwave digs into the
southern plains. However the GFS and ECMWF disagree on how much
qpf to print out so have reduced pops for Sunday until we see a
little better agreement. The system lifts out of the southern
plains into the mississippi valley on Monday so rain chances for
early in the week look good. The GFS and ECMWF can't agree on a
track for the surface system just yet with the GFS being further
north and therefore warmer than the ec. Think the current hedge
between the two with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the mid
40s to low 50s looks good.

Carney

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 536 pm cdt Tue mar 28 2017
latest satellite loops and observations depict some breaks in the
MVFR cloud deck along with a gradual rise in the cloud ceiling
height which may lead to temporary improvement toVFR conditions
later this evening, but this will be short lived as guidance
indicates prevailing MVFR conditions will return late tonight and
eventually down to ifr early Wednesday morning. It appears that
showers will move into the cou area by 12z Wednesday and into the
rest of the TAF sites later in the morning as a southerly low
level jet brings increasing low level moisture into the area ahead
of an approaching low pressure system over the southern plains.

East-northeast surface winds will strengthen late tonight and
Wednesday morning as the surface pressure gradient tightens.

Specifics for kstl: latest satellite loops and observations depict
some breaks in the MVFR cloud deck along with a gradual rise in
the cloud ceiling height which may lead to temporary improvement
toVFR conditions later this evening, but this will be short lived
as guidance indicates prevailing MVFR conditions will return late
tonight and eventually down to ifr Wednesday morning. It appears
that showers will move into the stl area Wednesday morning as a
southerly low level jet brings increasing low level moisture into
the area ahead of an approaching low pressure system over the
southern plains. Northeast surface winds will strengthen late
tonight and Wednesday as the surface pressure gradient tightens.

Gks

Preliminary point temps/pops
Saint louis 47 63 56 71 / 5 60 90 80
quincy 42 55 50 61 / 5 70 90 80
columbia 47 60 54 67 / 40 70 90 70
jefferson city 49 62 55 68 / 30 60 90 70
salem 48 64 56 72 / 0 30 70 90
farmington 50 64 58 71 / 5 50 90 80

Lsx watches/warnings/advisories
Mo... None.

Il... None.

Wfo lsx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rolla / Vichy, Rolla National Airport, MO19 mi34 minENE 9 G 2610.00 miOvercast56°F50°F81%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from VIH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW6W5W4W5W6NW3N5N5NE5NE7NE7NE5NE8E9
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1 day agoCalmNE4E6E5E4CalmE5E4SE5S3E8E7NE5SE9SE7E5E6SE4Calm4NW7N5N9N10
2 days agoSW11SW16
G22
SW16
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W15SW7SW12SW9SW9SW9SW10S9SW9SW9SW9W11SW10SW7S5W6SW116W9W4W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.