Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cuba, MO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 4:57PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 10:39 PM CST (04:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:34PMMoonset 10:58PM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cuba, MO
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location: 38.09, -91.42     debug


Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 150009
afdlsx
area forecast discussion... Updated aviation
national weather service saint louis mo
609 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018

Short term (through late Thursday afternoon)
issued at 318 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018

Significant winter storm to impact the region tonight and
tomorrow...

early afternoon water vapor imagery shows the closed mid upper level
low currently over south-central arkansas. This low will deepen
through the night tonight into early Thursday morning. Compared to
24 hours ago, the system as a whole is forecast to be a bit
deeper and faster than 24 hours ago. Regarding track, models are
very well clustered with respect to the 850-hpa low center moving
from near kmem early this evening into far southern illinois by
1200 utc Thursday. The axis of heaviest snow using the browne and
younkin (1970) technique is typically about 100 miles to the left
(in this case northwest) of the track of the 850-hpa low. Given
that this system is deepening fairly quickly; current thinking is
that the heavy snow axis will likely be a bit further to the
northwest (closer to 125 miles). This would put the axis from near
the st. Louis metro area toward k3lf, which also agrees well with
other techniques including using the track of the 500-hpa
vorticity maxima center (goree and younkin 1966) and the placement
of the -5c 850-hpa isotherm.

Current expectation is for accumulating snowfall to begin across
parts of southeast missouri and southwest illinois by early
evening in the presence of increasing low-level warm moist
advection. Snow is then expected to increase in coverage as it
moves to the north northwest. Heaviest period of snowfall should
begin overnight as mid upper level forcing for ascent increases
immediately ahead of the deepening closed low aloft. The three-
dimensional cyclone continues to deepen overnight as a well-
defined trowal feature develops between 0900 and 1200 utc.

Moderate to heavy snow will continue within the trowal through at
least the mid-morning hours as the system begins to pivot off to
the east. This pivot point is where the heaviest snowfall will be
since these locations should receive multiple inches of snow from
both the low-level warm air advection and trowal. For these
regions, 5 to 7 inches of snow is likely with locally higher
amounts possible. Areas favored for the heaviest snow include the
st. Louis metro area, metro east, and portions of south-central
illinois including litchfield and salem. For areas further to the
southwest over parts of southeast missouri, snowfall totals were
reduced by an inch or two because these locations will be affected
by the northern extent of the dry slot Thursday morning. While
confidence continues to increase with respect to storm total snow
amounts, timing, and location, the main source of uncertainty
remains with the snow associated with the deformation zone. Models
suggest this area of snow may only be 50-75 miles wide so even a
slight shift in the track of this system could alter snowfall
amounts by a few inches depending on where you live.

Model precipitation totals are highly variable with this latest
cycle, but used a blend of the NAM and the ECMWF due to the strength
of the forcing. This blend yielded approximately between a third and
a half inch of liquid equivalent precipitation where the heaviest
snowfall is expected. However, these totals still may be a bit
low as suggested by high-resolution NAM output where the pivot
point sets up. Cam guidance does suggest that the band of snow
within the deformation zone should weaken and narrow by early
afternoon on Thursday, which does make sense given that the system
by that time would have previously occluded. Regarding snow-to-
liquid ratios, went with an average of between 12 and 15:1 due to
several factors including: maximum ascent centered within the
dendritic growth zone, favorable conditions for dendrites to
aggregate, light winds throughout the column, period of heaviest
snowfall beginning at night, and cold(er) air and ground
temperatures compared to previous events.

Main impacts with this system continue to look like hazardous travel
conditions, particularly during the morning rush hour on Thursday
when the heaviest snow may be falling. In addition to travel issues,
there continues to be concern with the potential for scattered power
outages. While this snow should not be a very wet snow, 5-7 inches
of snow on trees with leaves on them likely will cause small to
medium sized branches to break off. Some of these branches may
fall onto power lines which in turn could cause power outages.

Gosselin

Long term (Thursday night through next Wednesday)
issued at 318 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
the weather pattern relaxes in the wake of this winter storm,
although we remain under the influence of a broad upper level trough
that covers much of the conus. Temperatures will try to moderate on
Friday and Saturday, but anticipated snow cover should limit high
temperatures and allow overnight lows to tank.

The next weather maker for our region is just now coming onshore
into british columbia. Plenty of time to sort out the details of how
this shortwave will impact the midwest, but chance pops this weekend
and colder temperatures behind the associated cold front on Sunday
certainly seems appropriate.

The pattern remains active heading into the holiday week with
several disturbances progged to march across the midwest as the
upper level trough remains anchored across the central conus.

Temperature trends will depend on timing of individual frontal
passages, with limited chances of precipitation noted in current
model solutions.

Cvking

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 543 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018
snow will spread northwestward into the st louis metro area later
this evening from southeast mo and southwest il as the strong upper
level disturbance over east central ar moves northeastward into
the mo bootheel region. The cloud height and visibility will
lower overnight as the snow becomes heavy at times with
visibilities down as low as 1 4 to 1 2 mile and the cloud ceiling
down to around 1000 feet.VFR conditions should continue in uin
and cou with a period of light snow or flurries late tonight early
Thursday morning. The cloud ceiling and visibility will improve
by late Thursday morning in the st louis metro area as the snow
becomes lighter and more spotty. Should see improvement toVFR
conditions by late afternoon or early evening as the snow ends.

The surface wind will be northeasterly tonight, backing around to
a northwest direction Thursday morning, and to a southwest
direction Thursday afternoon as the surface low shifts from the
tennessee valley region to the ohio valley region.

Specifics for kstl: snow will spread northwestward into stl
later this evening from southeast mo and southwest il as the
strong upper level disturbance over east central ar moves
northeastward into the mo bootheel region. The cloud height and
visibility will lower overnight as the snow becomes heavy at
times with visibilities down as low as 1 4 to 1 2 mile and the
cloud ceiling down to around 1000 feet. The cloud ceiling and
visibility will improve by late Thursday morning as the snow
becomes lighter and more spotty. Should see improvement toVFR
conditions by late afternoon or early evening as the snow ends.

The surface wind will be northeasterly tonight, backing around to
a northwest direction Thursday morning, and to a southwest
direction Thursday afternoon as the surface low shifts from the
tennessee valley region to the ohio valley region.

Gks

Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm cst Thursday for crawford mo-
franklin mo-gasconade mo-iron mo-lincoln mo-madison mo-
montgomery mo-osage mo-pike mo-reynolds mo-saint francois
mo-warren mo-washington mo.

Winter storm warning until 6 pm cst Thursday for jefferson mo-
saint charles mo-saint louis city mo-saint louis mo-sainte
genevieve mo.

Il... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm cst Thursday for pike il.

Winter storm warning until 6 pm cst Thursday for bond il-calhoun
il-clinton il-fayette il-greene il-jersey il-macoupin il-
madison il-marion il-monroe il-montgomery il-randolph il-
saint clair il-washington il.

Wfo lsx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rolla / Vichy, Rolla National Airport, MO19 mi46 minno data2.00 miLight Snow28°F19°F69%1027 hPa

Wind History from VIH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN6NE5NE5NE5NE8N4N6N8NE8NE3N5N4N10NE3Calm--
1 day agoN9N8NW8NW7NW7NW7NW6N7N10N7N9NW5N7NW6NW8NW7N8N6N5CalmCalmCalmNW4N6
2 days agoN4NE6NE4N3N7NE10NE9NE6N10N8N12N11N10N10N12N13
G24
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N11N14N11N13
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.