Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montross, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:03PM Saturday September 23, 2017 5:54 PM EDT (21:54 UTC) Moonrise 9:09AMMoonset 8:18PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 431 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Rest of this afternoon..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 431 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the eastern united states through the first part of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday and Wednesday as hurricane maria approaches north carolina. Refer to the latest statements from the national hurricane center for up-to-date information on hurricane maria.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montross, VA
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location: 38.1, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 232034
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
434 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will continue to influence the weather pattern
through Sunday night. Hurricane maria is forecast to move
northward between the offshore atlantic waters and bermuda
through most of the upcoming week. A cold front is expected to
cross the area by mid week and push maria east of the region.

Near term through Sunday
Not much of a pattern change anticipated for tonight with
stacked high pressure to the north and a weak upper low over the
gulf coast states west of fl. Kept low temperatures similar to
those experienced this morning and added patchy fog mainly for
inland va NE nc areas late this evening to just after sunrise.

Expect mostly clear skies and lows in the upper 50s to lower
60s.

The stacked high slowly slides eastward on sun... Preventing
hurricane maria from moving too far northward. Skies remain
mostly sunny with temperatures warming nicely to highs in the
mid-upper 80s inland (low-mid 80s beaches due to breezy ne
winds). Afternoon dewpoints falling into the upper 50s to
mid 60s will create ambient conditions that should feel
comfortable rather than humid.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday
Southern end of the stacked high begins to break down Sun night
as hurricane maria drifts northward but remaining well off the
southeast coast. Biggest change will be slightly warmer
overnight lows in the mid 60s (upper 60s to around 70f beaches)
as onshore NE winds remain breezy in response to the pressure
gradient tightening between the sfc high to the north and maria
to the south.

Maria continues to move northward on Monday with gradient winds
remaining persistently breezy from the ne. Gusts around
20-25 mph should be anticipated along coastal areas of
se va NE nc... Where farther inland, gusts should range from
15-20 mph. Clouds from the outer bands of maria will start to
rotate into areas along the coast from NE nc to md... Especially
as the afternoon progresses. This should impact temperatures
near SE coastal areas with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Farther inland, less clouds present should allow temps to warm
into the mid- upper 80s. Isolated thunderstorms may be possible
mon afternoon if the outer bands can make it far enough north to
rotate into far SE va NE nc coastal areas. Per 12z data, models
in fair agreement in showing maria's center located an average
of 320 miles SE of CAPE hatteras by Monday evening with
variations in precip coverage, thus the reason why precip is
limited to isolated for mon.

From Mon night into tue, model consensus begins to fall apart.

The general trend among all models is for maria to continue
pushing northward. However, the GFS is more progressive in
shifting its track nnw and closer to CAPE hatteras (around
160 miles ese), whereas the ECMWF shows a slower northward track
and keeping the center around 225 miles SE of CAPE hatteras.

Despite model differences, the overall trend is for maria to
approach the mid atlantic region Mon night and Tue with precip
chances increasing during this time. Have broad-brushed pops
into 6 hour segments in an effort to show the upward trend while
not putting too much detail into the forecast until models get a
better handle on how close maria can get to the coast before
being pushed out to sea by a cold front and incoming upper
trough with stronger westerly steering winds aloft. Given model
differences, temperatures will be tricky... However dewpoints
will be on the rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Expect
increasing low temperatures Mon night (upper 60s to lower 70s),
and lower high temperatures on Tue due to more clouds precip
across the area. Highs in the mid-upper 70s near the coast to
around 80f generally along west of interstate 95.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
First part of the extended, Tuesday night through Thursday,
will be predicated on future track of hurricane maria. Latest
nhc track is a bit further west than 24 hours ago, which
increases the potential for some rainfall near the bay ocean,
somewhat stronger winds, higher seas, and some coastal
flooding. Have utilized superblend for tangible weather during
this period, given potential uncertainty in the track.

Models quite consistent after the daytime hours Thursday in
taking maria fairly quickly northeastward away from the area. In
advance of upper trof dropping southeastward from canada. This
trof and associated cold front move into the region next
Saturday day 7 .

Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday, with highs
from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Temperatures cool into the 70s
Friday Saturday in the wake of hurricane maria. Lows Tuesday
night through Wednesday night range from the mid 60s to around
70f, then mid 50s NW to mid 60s SE Thursday night, and in the
50s Friday night.

Aviation 20z Saturday through Thursday
Vfr conditions prevail for the most part through the 18z taf
period, as high pressure remains in control over the area. Have
maintained some MVFR overnight at kric ksby per 12z taf
issuance. This seems reasonable given little overall pattern
change, and dew points are about the same as Friday. Have kept
korfVFR through the period, as that terminal is generally not
prone to nocturnal fog development.

However, have opted to forecast similar conditions to Friday
night at kphf kecg. Both these locations had at least
intermittent ifr lifr Friday night. Since the overall pattern is
unchanged from the last 24 hours, both of these sites should
again see intermittent ifr lifr conditions after 02z.

Outlook: generallyVFR dry conditions, with the exception of
patchy morning fog, are anticipated through the Monday due to
the influence of high pressure over the region. Sub-vfr
conditions will be possible Tuesday through mid next week,
primarily at eastern TAF sites, as moist northerly flow from
tropical cyclone maria overspreads the region.

Marine
Long period swell continues to propagate toward the coast with
seas generally 4-6 ft and the current small craft for hazardous
seas will continue in effect through Sun night (after that winds
will increase and the headlines will likely be converted to the
more usual small craft advsy). Overall, expect seas of 4-6 ft
to persist Sunday Sunday night, then build more significantly
mon- Wed as ese swell and some increasing winds arrive from slow
moving maria. The bulk of the forecast guidance (as well as the
official NHC forecast) still keeps maria offshore of the
carolinas Tue into thu, before it gets kicked quickly ene out
to sea Thu night into Fri night. Based on the latest guidance,
have increased winds and seas fcst for tue-thu, with at least
sca conditions expected all areas and the potential for gales
over the lower bay coastal waters (or tropical headlines).

Either way, seas over the coastal waters should easily reach 10
ft or greater from tue-thu. Monitor the NHC forecast for the
official forecast track of maria.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal departures this aftn avg 1.0 to 1.5 ft across the entire
area. Minor flooding continues mainly across the upper bay from
lewisetta to bishops head through this evening. The following
high tide overnight early Sunday will tend to be slightly lower
than the one this evening but will be close enough to just
extend the coastal flood advisory through Sun morning. Elsewhere
over the mid lower bay, the water levels peaked a few tenths
below minor flood thresholds earlier today, with the overnight
tide expected to be slightly lower so did not issue any
headlines for these areas. Water levels will tend to remain
elevated sun-mon, but overall most places should remain below
any minor flood thresholds. Will need to watch for additional
flooding next week, especially by later Tue and Wed (and
perhaps thu). This will depend on the exact track of maria, but
the potential for significant tidal flooding exists (especially
over locations adjacent to the lower bay and southern va NE nc
waters. High surf advisories likely will be needed by late mon
or Tue as well.

High risk for rip currents for all beaches adjacent to coastal
waters continues through Sunday, as 3-5 ft nearshore waves and
13-15 second swell persists.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 9 am edt Sunday for mdz021>023.

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 7 am edt Sunday for vaz075-077.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt Monday
for anz650-652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Bmd
near term... Bmd
short term... Bmd
long term... Ajz alb wrs
aviation... Ajz wrs
marine... Lkb tmg
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 11 mi55 min NNE 8 G 8.9
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 16 mi55 min N 7 G 9.9 81°F 77°F1017.2 hPa (-0.5)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 21 mi55 min NNW 7 G 8.9 81°F 77°F1016.9 hPa (-0.6)
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi35 min N 9.7 G 14 81°F 1016.5 hPa
NCDV2 22 mi55 min NW 4.1 G 6 85°F 77°F1016.6 hPa (-0.5)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 28 mi55 min NNW 6 G 8.9 78°F 1017.9 hPa (-0.7)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi35 min NNW 1.9 G 3.9 80°F 1017.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi55 min NW 7 G 16 81°F 79°F1017 hPa (-0.9)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi35 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 1017.5 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 47 mi85 min NNE 2.9 82°F 1018 hPa69°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 47 mi145 min N 1.9 84°F 1017 hPa62°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi55 min 85°F 78°F1017.9 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD16 mi2 hrsVar 510.00 miFair85°F64°F51%1017.2 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD18 mi78 minNE 310.00 miFair81°F62°F54%1017.9 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA19 mi60 minN 410.00 miFair84°F52°F34%1017.9 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD22 mi63 minN 9 G 1710.00 miA Few Clouds84°F63°F49%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN6N6NW5NW8435N5
1 day ago3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW5W4SW3Calm3CalmCalmCalmNE3N335W7W73
2 days agoW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N3N3N4634W6--6NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Holly, Nomini Creek, Virginia
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Mount Holly
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:50 AM EDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:01 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:07 PM EDT     1.85 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.30.61.11.41.71.71.61.20.80.50.20.10.20.611.51.71.81.71.41.10.70.4

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Sat -- 12:14 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:57 AM EDT     0.42 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:04 AM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:11 PM EDT     0.60 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:57 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:51 PM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.30.40.30.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.300.40.60.50.3-0-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.9-0.8-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.