Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montross, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 5:14PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 2:03 AM EST (07:03 UTC) Moonrise 7:37AMMoonset 5:56PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1232 Am Est Wed Jan 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Overnight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less. Snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 3 ft. Snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1232 Am Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters tonight. High pressure will return for late in the week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montross, VA
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location: 38.1, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 170313
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1013 pm est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will slide offshore tonight. A cold front crosses
the area Wednesday morning with low pressure moving northeast
along the coast Wednesday afternoon and night. A second surge of
arctic air pushes across the area Wednesday night into Thursday
before temperatures moderate into next weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
Update... Main change this cycle was to upgrade portions of
south central va and northampton nc to a winter storm warning
and added northampton co. Va to a winter wx advisory.

Evening analysis indicates a potent positively tilted upper
trough all the way south into the lower ms tn valley. Frigid
airmass down into the south central CONUS today and this will
continue to migrate eastward tonight. In the near term tonight,
low clouds and some patchy fog will persist near the coast and
eastern shore while most of the remainder of the CWA is mainly
cloudy with mid high clouds thickening in advance of the
approaching system. Lows tonight will be mainly in the mid 20s
to around 30 f.

The upper trough will pivot ese and is progged to take on more
a neutral tilt with the associated cold front pushing across the
mountains and into the piedmont well after midnight, genly by
09-12z Wednesday. The upper level is then progged to take on a
negative tilt or even become cutoff for a time during the day
wed. This will place a narrow zone from central nc to south
central va into optimal placement for deformation banding within
a deep upper level diffluent zone. Have raised snow amounts to
3-5" within the warning area and locally higher amounts will be
possible especially if the upper feature were to slow down
further.

Previous discussion... The vigorous upper level feature will
continue to trundle ewd across the region Wednesday as the cold
front gradually pushes through the region with snow
overspreading the region and affecting the commute Wednesday
morning across WRN and central portions. Pcpn could briefly
begin as rain, especially toward the coast. 16 12z
gfs ECMWF nam cmc demonstrate decent agreement with this
feature, with some slight timing differences in the latter
stages, mainly 18-00z Wednesday with the ECMWF cmc slightly
slower. Given this, pops have been increased to categorical
across the piedmont after 06z tonight into midday Wednesday, and
for central and s- central va Wednesday morning. Likely pops
have been maintained for SE va NE nc, with likely pops for the
middle peninsula northern neck lower ERN shore tapering to chc
for the lower md ERN shore.

Overall, not much has changed with the synoptic weather
details preferences in the near and short term. Have gone ahead
and extended winter weather advisories east to include all zones
west of the chesapeake bay, including for the hampton roads area
for their evening commute. Have held out accomack northampton
for now with accumulations ~1" and some mixed pcpn expected.

12z 16 suite once again have trended slightly slower and upward
with qpf. Have nudged forecast snow totals up slightly from the
peninsula into tidewater hampton roads areas. Model consensus
supports QPF of 0.25-0.35" across the piedmont and s-central va
and northampton nc, bordered by ~0.1 to 0.2" from central va to
e va and NE nc, with 0.1" or less over the lower eastern shore.

Expect some variability in slrs, but generally ratios of 12-15:1
are expected during the highest pops, which supports 2-4" of
snow across the piedmont, with 1-3" for the i-95 corridor of
central and s-central va into northampton nc.

Confident in period of moderate snow inland, given well-modeled
narrow band of negative epv dropping over the SW zones in the
piedmont (i-85 corridor). There could be a very narrow corridor
of 4-6" of snow in this band. However, expect this would be very
localized and hard to pin- down, so there is no need for a
watch or warning at this time. Slightly less confident into se
va. To reiterate... We have issued a winter weather advisory
over hampton roads for the late morning and afternoon. However,
we are still a bit concerned with sharpening axis of f-gen oprh
depicted by the 12z (and now 18z) high-res nam. Issue will be
that we will have a very narrow window within which to receive
moderate snows into tidewater area, before best axis of moisture
slides offshore. Potential is there for warning criteria snows
(and criteria is 3" for SE va). However, after collaboration
with neighboring offices and wpc, will hold off with warning for
now. Narrow window of potential snowfall is the primary issue.

Should later model runs continue to depict this potential, an
upgrade to a winter storm warning for all or part of the hampton
roads area may be needed.

High temperatures will generally be 30-35f, but will likely
fall into the mid upper 20s across the NW half of the area by
early aftn and to the upper 20s around 30f elsewhere by mid late
aftn.

Short term Wednesday night through Thursday night
The sky will clear quickly Wednesday night as well-advertised
quick shot of arctic air surges into the region. Shallow mixing
is expected to persist overnight, which should inhibit
temperatures from plummeting too far. Still cold nonetheless
with lows in the teens inland to the upper teens low 20s for
coastal SE va NE nc. Mid-level WAA resumes rather quickly
Thursday with 850mb temperatures of -2 to -4c at 12z warming to
+4-6c by 21z. A cold start to the day, limited mixing, and mid-
level WAA should result in rather stable lapse rates and surface
high temperatures Thursday should only reach the upper 30s to
low 40s.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
Pattern change looks to occur during the medium range period with a
significant warmup expected through the upcoming weekend early next
week. It will still be on the cold side early Fri morning with sfc
high pressure centered across the deep south, and one last upper
trough moving ese to the new england coast. Latest gfs ECMWF cmc
depict the upper trough moving well off the new england coast fri
with a broad upper level ridge building over the eastern CONUS fri
aftn through the weekend. Expect continued dry conditions with
warming temperatures, highs in the upper 40s lower 50s fri, rising
well into the 50s (possibly near 60f) sat, and into the upper 50s to
lower 60s for sun. Lows Fri night Sat am in the mid 20s to mid 30s,
and Sat night Sun am in the 30s to around 40f. Minor timing
differences arise by Mon between the models, but the overall trend
is for a slower arrival of the cold front and with the upper pattern
amplifying quite a bit this makes sense. Expect increasing clouds
ahead of the next front Sun night but have genly slowed down the
main chance for for showers until Mon aftn Mon night. Mild with lows
in the 40s Sun night Mon am and highs Mon mainly in the 60s (could
even be near 70f in the SE if more Sun develops and the precip is
slower to arrive). High chc pops for now 40-50% all zones Mon night.

The ECMWF is slower by this time than the GFS cmc so will linger
pops through 12z. Drying out becoming partly-mostly sunny Tue with
highs mainly in the 50s.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
Complex scenario this evening with patchy fog low stratus
becoming confined mainly to the waters and the eastern shore
(vsbys having recently improved at korf). MainlyVFR conditions
inland for the time being. However, expect conditions near the
coast to again deteriorate by around 03z and persist overnight
(though probably not to the level of what occurred last night).

Expect widespread flight restrictions on Wed in snow as clipper
and associated cold front crosses the region. Kric will likely
experience the worst conditions from 12-18z while korf kphf kecg
will lag behind by several hrs with worst conditions not
starting until between 15-18z and lasting through most of the
remainder of the TAF period. Ksby will overall see only light
snow showers with vsbys down to about 2sm. Winds will be from
the N and gust to 20-25kt near the coast by aftn.

Outlook: clearing Wed night with breezy N winds near the coast.

PredominateVFR then likely thu-sat as the trough ejects ne
offshore.

Marine
Light winds and saturated conditions this evening over portions
of the bay and southern va coastal waters. Cams show limited
vsbys over these waters and raised a marine dense fog advisory
through the evening hrs.

High pressure will slide into the atlc this evening. A surface
cold front crosses the the coast late tonight into Wed morning,
with strong CAA lagging behind until the upper trough arrives
wed evening into thu. Nnw winds increase to 15 to 25 knots wed
aftn evening with gusts up to or arnd 30 kt, esply later wed
evening and Wed night, as the storm system moves out to sea and
high pressure starts to build back in fm the west. Scas are in
effect over the coastal waters into Thu aftn, with scas for the
ches bay and currituck snd now in effect fm Wed morning (7-10
am) into Thu morning (7-10 am). High pressure settles over the
area later Thu aftn into sat, then slides off the SE coast
sun.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Winter weather advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
ncz013-014-030.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am to 9 pm est Wednesday for
ncz015>017-031-032-102.

Winter storm warning from 3 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
ncz012.

Va... Winter weather advisory until 3 pm est Wednesday for vaz048-
060>062-069-509-510.

Winter weather advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
vaz084-086-088>090-092-093-096-523>525.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am to 9 pm est Wednesday for
vaz095-097-098-100.

Winter weather advisory from 3 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
vaz064-067-068-075>078-080>083-085-511>522.

Winter storm warning from 3 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
vaz065-066-079-087.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Thursday for anz650-652-
654-656-658.

Dense fog advisory until 1 am est Wednesday for anz631-632-634-
656.

Small craft advisory from 7 am Wednesday to 7 am est Thursday
for anz630>632.

Small craft advisory from 7 am Wednesday to 10 am est Thursday
for anz634.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Wednesday to 10 am est
Thursday for anz633.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Lkb mam
short term... Mam
long term... Lkb
aviation... Lkb
marine... Tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 11 mi46 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 16 mi46 min W 2.9 G 2.9 32°F 33°F1025.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 21 mi52 min NNW 2.9 G 5.1 33°F 35°F1025.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi34 min N 3.9 G 3.9 33°F 1025 hPa
NCDV2 22 mi46 min NNW 7 G 11 34°F 32°F1025.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 28 mi46 min N 5.1 G 6 33°F 1026.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi34 min NW 1.9 G 1.9 33°F 1026.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi46 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 32°F 32°F1025.9 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi34 min N 1.9 G 1.9 32°F 1028.1 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 47 mi94 min Calm 29°F 1027 hPa28°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 47 mi154 min Calm 29°F 1027 hPa28°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi46 min 33°F 32°F1026.4 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD16 mi71 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist32°F30°F96%1025.8 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD18 mi67 minN 010.00 miOvercast32°F32°F100%1026.4 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA19 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair32°F30°F94%1026.4 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD22 mi3.2 hrsN 06.00 miFog/Mist30°F30°F100%1027 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3
1 day ago4N8N6N10
G17
NE4N6N8N763N5NW6NE7NW44N4N3NW3CalmN3NW3CalmNW3NW4
2 days agoNW8
G15
NW8
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NW865NW7N86N8
G14
4N7N75NE86NE5N4NE5N6NE3NE4N4NE4NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Holly, Nomini Creek, Virginia
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Mount Holly
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:09 AM EST     1.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:08 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:17 PM EST     1.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:56 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:53 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.611.21.31.20.90.60.30-0.100.30.71.11.31.41.41.10.80.50.20-0.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Wed -- 01:45 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:16 AM EST     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:36 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:42 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:19 AM EST     0.63 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:09 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:11 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:54 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:16 PM EST     -1.04 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:52 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.20.10.40.60.60.40.1-0.3-0.7-0.9-1-1-0.8-0.6-0.30.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.