Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montross, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:23PM Sunday May 26, 2019 3:17 AM EDT (07:17 UTC) Moonrise 12:54AMMoonset 11:42AM Illumination 52% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 134 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am edt early this morning...
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 134 Am Edt Sun May 26 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will shift offshore of the eastern united states through tonight. A weak cold front will approach the waters Sunday, lingering nearby through Monday. High pressure off the southeastern united states coast will then be in control in the middle of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Sunday night into Monday and again on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montross, VA
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location: 38.1, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 260153
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
953 pm edt Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will lift northeast across the area tonight. A weak
cold front will drop across the region Sunday night into memorial
day before return back north of the area on Tuesday, followed by a
big warm up for the remainder of week.

Near term through Sunday
As of 950 pm edt Saturday...

latest msas has the warm front ivof the i95 corridor with the
surrounding radars showing the pulse convection weakening over
the past hr due to loss of htng as they move east. Impressive
lightning show ongoing to the north. Expect the current convection
to track ese across NRN zones over the next few hrs (but may briefly
pulse back up at times although not to severe limits).

Attention then turns to the next convective complex to the nw. High
res data has this activity sliding SE across the DELMARVA nrn neck
arnd 06z. Thus, will keep 20-30 pop going with the highest pop across
the north.

Otw, fair to pt cldy warm overnite. Lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

Pvs dscn:
on Sunday, the upper ridge is back over the area and the main
front is well to the north. This should lead to a hot and mostly
sunny day across the area. But will need to watch for developing
convective complexes to the northwest as a couple shortwave
troughs slide across the northern periphery of the ridge. This
may allow some additional storms into the area late Sunday
afternoon. Expect afternoon highs to jump back up into the low
to mid 90s for most areas.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday
As of 415 pm edt Saturday...

with the upper level ridge getting knocked back south a little
because of a few shortwave troughs, more convection is possible
Sunday night into Monday as the frontal boundary returns back to
the south. The timing and development of the convective
complexes is difficult to peg at this time range, but with the
front getting drug southward, expect some convection to be
around the area with some showers hanging on through Monday
morning. But front will not remain south of the area long before
getting pushed back north of the area late Monday night into
Tuesday. As the front lifts back north it may still be focus for
more precipitation. But with the lack of a good kicker to
initial convection as the better dynamics are north of the area
from ohio into pa, the action along the warm front may be
limited. Behind the front on Tuesday, the heat begins to build
as ridge builds northward once again.

Temperatures will follow a similar pattern to the last few days
with readings slightly cooler on Monday after the front waffles
to the south with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Then on
Tuesday readings jump up into the low to mid 90s once again. For
overnight lows, with the increase in the low level moisture and
clouds lingering around have kept temperatures in the upper 60s
to low 70s for most areas.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
As of 415 pm edt Saturday...

the story for the extended period will be the heat across the
region. An upper level ridge remains in control at the start of the
forecast period, amplifying across the region on Wednesday. With wsw
to SW downsloping flow during the day and 850mb temps in the 20-23c
range, expect temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 90s across
much of the area on Wednesday. Temperatures may even touch 100
degrees, especially across far southern portions of the fa. Our one
saving grace is that dewpoints look to generally stay in the lower
to mid 60s on Wednesday, so am not expecting heat indices to be much
of a factor. A stray shower or storm could also potentially limit
daytime highs on Wednesday, though with an amplifying ridge aloft
and building high pressure at the surface am expect any shower
potential to be very limited. Low temperatures on Wednesday night
only drop into the low to mid 70s.

By Thursday, the upper level ridge axis begins to break down push
east of the local area as a more potent shortwave develops and moves
across the midwest and great lakes. Thursday will likely be another
very hot day with temperatures making it up into the mid 90s across
much of the area. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the
increase as the shortwave and associated cold front approach and
cross the region late Thursday into early Friday. This boundary then
stalls lingers near to just south of the region into the weekend
bringing the potential for more unsettled conditions. Temperatures
cool down slightly Friday into the weekend, but are still expected
to remain above average as highs in the mid to upper 80s are
anticipated.

Aviation 02z Sunday through Thursday
As of 715 pm edt Saturday...

generallyVFR conditions through the forecast period. Sct convection
ahead of an advancing warm front expected over the next svrl hrs this
eve into the erly morning hrs ivof sby. High res data showing that sby
has the best chc of seeing any tstms, so went ahead and added vcts
there btwn 03z-06z. Confidence to low to include thunder at any other
taf site attm. SE winds arnd 10 kts shift into the SW late tonight sun.

Outlook:
mainlyVFR conditions expected thru mon. Another convective complex may
track SE across the region and result in sct convection Sun aftrn eve.

Marine
As of 415 pm edt Saturday...

strong upper ridge in place across the southeast deep south this
afternoon with elongated surface high pressure moving slowly off the
mid atlantic coast. Winds generally from the east this afternoon at
5-15 knots with gusts 15-20 knots. Waves are around 2 ft in the bay
with seas 2-3 ft offshore.

Surface high will settle southward this afternoon evening allowing
winds to become southeasterly and increase a bit to 15-20 knots with
gusts 20-25 knots as the pressure gradient tightens between the high
and low pressure passing well the north of the local area.

Conditions are approaching SCA levels in the bay and lower james
river this afternoon and will increase slightly tonight, so went
ahead and hoisted SCA headlines from this afternoon into early
Sunday morning. Waves will build to 2-3 ft tonight with seas
generally 3-4 ft N and 2-4 ft s. Winds decrease and become SW then w
by Sunday afternoon. Thereafter, a series of weak fronts will impact
the area bringing changes in wind direction but little in the way of
enhanced winds. Upper ridge holds strong through mid week.

Climate
As of 700 am edt Saturday...

* records for Sun 5 26:
* richmond: 94 (1991) (record high min 70 in 2011)
* norfolk: 98 (1880) (record high min 74 in 2011)
* salisbury: 92 (2011) (record high min 69 in 1984)
* eliz city: 95 (1953) (record high min 74 in 2011)
* number of days of 90f+ in may:
* site avg 2019 (thru 5 24) most (year)
* richmond: 2 days 3 days 11 days (1962)
* norfolk: 2 days 2 days 13 days (1880)
* salisbury: 1 day none 7 days (1991)
* eliz city: 2 days 4 days 9 days (1944)

Equipment
As of 715 pm edt Saturday...

kakq 88d radar is offline due to a transmitter error. Technicians
are awaiting parts for needed repairs. No return to service time
is available. See ftmakq for details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Sunday for anz630>632-634-
638.

Synopsis... Ess
near term... Ess
short term... Ess
long term... Alb
aviation... Ess mpr
marine... Rhr
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 11 mi48 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 16 mi48 min N 15 G 20 73°F 73°F1017.7 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi48 min NNW 16 G 18 73°F 71°F1016.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 21 mi48 min S 5.1 G 7 70°F 71°F1015.8 hPa
NCDV2 22 mi54 min S 4.1 G 5.1 70°F 75°F1015.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 28 mi48 min SSW 12 G 13 70°F 1016.8 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi60 min SW 14 G 14 69°F 1016.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi54 min SW 9.9 G 15 72°F 73°F1017.6 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi66 min SW 14 G 16 75°F 73°F1014.7 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi48 min 71°F 72°F1016 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD16 mi25 minS 610.00 miThunderstorm74°F70°F88%1016.2 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD18 mi36 minSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F68°F100%1016.9 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA19 mi23 minN 010.00 miFair71°F69°F94%1016.9 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD22 mi26 minSSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F71°F100%1016 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Mount Holly, Nomini Creek, Virginia
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Mount Holly
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:13 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:32 AM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:49 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:15 PM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.70.50.40.40.60.91.31.51.61.61.41.10.80.50.40.30.40.711.31.51.61.5

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Sun -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:35 AM EDT     0.38 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:03 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 12:19 PM EDT     -0.82 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     Last Quarter
Sun -- 12:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:43 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:43 PM EDT     0.40 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:31 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.4-0.2-0.10.20.30.40.20-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.20.10.30.40.30.1-0.1-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.