Wednesday, March22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Montross, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 7:23PM Wednesday March 22, 2017 8:27 PM EDT (00:27 UTC) Moonrise 2:33AMMoonset 12:53PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 731 Pm Edt Wed Mar 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am edt Thursday...
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt until early morning. Waves 3 ft...subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 731 Pm Edt Wed Mar 22 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will then build from the north, settling across the waters Thursday morning. The high will move offshore Thursday night, allowing a warm front to lift through the area on Friday. A low pressure system may approach the area Sunday. Small craft advisories may be needed on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montross, VA
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location: 38.1, -76.73     debug

Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 221921
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
321 pm edt Wed mar 22 2017

Canadian high pressure builds into the mid atlantic states
tonight into Thursday. A gradual warming trend begins Friday
into the upcoming weekend. A more active weather pattern is
anticipated Sunday night into the first half of next week.

Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/
Gusty nnw winds this aftn will diminish around sunset this
evening. Otherwise, canadian sfc high pressure builds into the
oh valley and starts to settle over the mid atlantic region
tonight. Strong subsidence aloft will result in clear skies,
however breezy north winds persisting through the overnight
hours will prevent temperatures from reaching their full
potential. Based on upstream observations this morning, have
trended overnight lows up a few degrees. Still anticipating
readings of 22-25f north of interstate 64 (including md lower
eastern shore), 26-28f inland va/ne nc, and 29-31 far SE va/ne
nc coastal areas.

Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Saturday/
Canadian high pressure continues to settle over the mid atlantic
region on Thu and then slowly slides offshore Thu night.

Slightly cooler with continued dry conditions thu/thu night.

Highs in the upper 40s to around 50f inland/low-mid 40s
immediate coast and md/va eastern shore. Lows in the upper 20s
to 32f inland /low-mid 30s beaches.

Dry with a gradual warming trend Fri through Sat as high
pressure shifts well offshore, and a warm front lifts northwest
of the area... Allowing warm air advection to commence with
winds becoming more s-sw. Temperatures are expected to rebound
to 60-65f most inland areas (mid 50s to lower 60s beaches and
md/va eastern shore) due to breezy southwest winds gusting to
around 20 mph inland and up to 25 mph md/va eastern shore.

Overall conditions will be dry as mid-upper level ridging and
decent subsidence aloft dominates (i.E. Best shower chances are
well north along the warm front). Otherwise, mid-high clouds
should stream across the region (especially north) in relatively
flat, upper level flow through Fri night. Lows around 50f.

Meanwhile, low pressure exits the intermountain west into the
central plains Fri into Fri night. As the low tracks into the
wrn midwest on sat, a secondary warm front is expected to lift
through the area. This will allow for additional warming in
continued southwest sfc winds and a noticeable influx of
moisture as dewpoints increase to around 50f. Although clouds
should clear out across the SE half of the area during the day
(as is typical with a warm frontal passage), aftn cumulus
development and increasing cirrus from the west will keep partly
sunny wording in the forecast. Taking all of the above into
account as well as improved daytime heating with an increasing
sun angle, went with a blend of wpc/mosguide for highs on sat
and bumped up the eastern shore due to the southwest winds
present. Expect highs in the mid 70s inland/low- mid 70s beaches).

Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/
Medium range of the forecast period characterized by near to
above normal temperatures, courtesy of arriving mid-level
ridging aloft, and surface high pressure oriented just off the
mid atlantic/southeast coast. Main weather features of note will
be a series of mid/upper level troughs... Bringing a few periods
of scattered light precipitation over the weekend/early next
week. The first of these disturbances traverses across the
central/southern plains on Saturday, dampening as it crosses
e-ne into the ohio valley and great lakes on Sunday and into the
northeast on Monday. This feature will allow for some isolated
to scattered showers Sunday afternoon into early on Monday. Qpf
will be limited with this feature. Instability and weakening
dynamics/forcing remain maximized well off to our n-nw, and will
therefore maintain 40-60% pop over our western/nw tier for some
sct to numerous showers Sunday evening into Monday morning, with
lesser pops for more isolated showers across the SE coastal
plain. Mild southerly flow will keep temps mild, with forecast
highs in the upper 50s to 60s northern neck and lower md eastern
shore... With upper 60s to low 70s inland for the weekend into
early next week.

For the middle of next week... Attention turns to a pair of
shortwaves. A second southern stream disturbance is expected to
track east/northeastward from the ca coast... Across the plains
and mid-south late Sat to early Monday. This system will
continue to weaken as it pushes across the eastern third of the
conus Monday through early Tuesday. Meanwhile, a northern stream
system will drop from the pac NW toward the northern plains
early Monday, eventually reaching the great lakes by the middle
of next week. Models are still split on the evolution of these
systems. The 12z/22 ECMWF and 00z ec ensembles remains quicker
to dampen these features with the gfs/gefs a bit stronger/more
amplified. Taking a middle of the road approach remains the
preference at this point, with the resultant blended solution
allowing for continued mild weather Mon to Wed with at least a
small chance for showers on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Shortwave
ridging rebuilds behind this system for Wednesday. Highs remain
mild through the period, with 50s and 60s over the northern
neck of va into md, with highs well into the 60s to mid 70s
inland. Early morning lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s southern

Aviation /19z Wednesday through Monday/
Low pressure now well off the coast with strong high pressure
centered over the great lakes. The pressure gradient remains
strong and N to NW winds avg 15-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt at
all TAF sites. Skies have become mainly clear and this will
continue through the 18z TAF period (vfr conditions). As the
high pressure system builds into the region this evening into
tonight and settles over the region Thursday, winds will
diminish (though will stay somewhat elevated near the coast
tonight). Much lighter winds Thu (mainly 10 kt or less). The
high settles off the coast Friday into Saturday, allowing winds
to shift around to the ssw withVFR conditions to persist.

Showers will be possible later Sunday as low pressure approaches
from the w.

Latest obs reflect strong surge of northerly winds ongoing
across the waters this afternoon. Winds averaging north at
25-30 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt over the bay and coastal waters
into the mouth of the james river.

Will be allowing gale headline to expire over the ches bay north
of little creek, stepping back to SCA through tonight. Will
maintain a gale for the mouth of chesapeake bay and the coastal
waters through 23z (7pm edt) for winds generally 25-30 kt with
gusts to around 35-40 kt. Laps/msas showing strong 3-hr pressure
rises on the order of 2-4 mb over the waters with decent flow
aloft mixing down 30-35 kt wind gusts over the waters this
afternoon. Low pressure slides farther off the coastal carolinas
through tonight as strong ~1040mb canadian high pressure builds
from the great lakes into the ohio valley. Pressure gradient
will slacken as the high builds overhead overnight. SCA over the
rivers drop this evening, and over the bay early Thu morning.

Existing gales over the coastal waters and mouth of the bay and
the currituck sound should be able to be dropped on time early
this evening, with a period of SCA needed through the night
before dropping below SCA thresholds Thu morning/early aftn over
southern waters. Seas of around 5-8 ft ATTM (highest southern
coastal waters) slowly subside tonight with waves of 4-5 feet.

High pressure settles over the waters Thursday morning with
winds becoming north to northeast at or below 15 knots. Seas
gradually subside from north to south Thursday morning, finally
dropping below 5 ft threshold in the southern coastal waters by
early Thursday afternoon.

High pressure slides offshore Thursday night with flow becoming
southwest Friday and lingering through Saturday. Speeds increase
to 15-20 knots Friday afternoon as a storm system develops over
the midwest. The next front crosses the waters early next week,
with relatively benign marine conditions expected over the
weekend in light return flow, courtesy of high pressure anchored
over the western atlantic. Seas remain 2-3 ft, waves 1-2 ft.

Radar kdox remains inoperable due to a bad spectrum filter.

Maintenance is expected to begin overnight with an estimated
(though possibly unstable) return to service is now Friday,
march 24th.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... High surf advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for ncz102.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for

Gale warning until 4 pm edt this afternoon for anz630>632-634-

Gale warning until 7 pm edt this evening for anz633-650-652-

Synopsis... Bmd
near term... Bmd
short term... Bmd
long term... Mam
aviation... Lkb
marine... Mam
equipment... Akq

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 11 mi40 min N 8.9 G 11
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 16 mi40 min NNE 8 G 11 45°F 49°F1027.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 21 mi100 min NW 15 G 19
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi28 min N 12 G 18 43°F 46°F1 ft1027.3 hPa (+2.8)
NCDV2 22 mi40 min NNW 5.1 G 6 44°F 47°F1027.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 28 mi40 min N 20 G 23 43°F 1028.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi28 min N 18 G 19 44°F 44°F2 ft1028.6 hPa (+3.0)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi40 min N 6 G 9.9 41°F 49°F1028 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi28 min NNE 18 G 21 44°F 48°F2 ft1027.7 hPa (+3.2)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 47 mi58 min N 1.9 47°F 1028 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 47 mi118 min NW 9.9 44°F 1027 hPa10°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi40 min N 14 G 16 42°F 45°F1027.3 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD16 mi35 minN 510.00 miFair44°F7°F22%1027.7 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD18 mi47 minNW 410.00 miFair41°F5°F22%1028.4 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA19 mi33 minNW 510.00 miFair44°F-12°F9%1028.1 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD22 mi36 minNNW 1310.00 miFair42°F10°F28%1027.8 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalm------------Calm6--------NW12
1 day ago3CalmCalmSE3SE3E3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW6NW55--N53--S4SW4CalmCalm
2 days agoCalm45NW4NW5NW4NW644--Calm35NW7N63SW10SW9SW9W8W7W6NE4E3

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Holly, Nomini Creek, Virginia
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Mount Holly
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Wed -- 03:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:40 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:09 AM EDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:42 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:57 PM EDT     1.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Wed -- 01:31 AM EDT     -0.48 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:06 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:39 AM EDT     0.49 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:29 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:33 PM EDT     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:34 PM EDT     0.29 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:47 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.