Tuesday, August22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montross, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 7:52PM Tuesday August 22, 2017 8:47 PM EDT (00:47 UTC) Moonrise 6:16AMMoonset 7:36PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 732 Pm Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 5 am edt Wednesday...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 732 Pm Edt Tue Aug 22 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the waters late tonight into early Wednesday. High pressure will return for the second half of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montross, VA
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location: 38.1, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 222309
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
709 pm edt Tue aug 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure remains centered off the mid atlantic coast
through tonight as a cold front begins to approach from the
west. The front crosses the area late Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday night, with strong high pressure building
north of the area from Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Latest surface analysis centers high pressure over the western
atlantic, with a lee thermal trough over the piedmont. Isolated
to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have spread into
interior portions of northeast north carolina, but the overall
trend is for the activity is to dissipate as it moves northeast.

Activity will dissipate this evening as instability wanes.

Warm humid tonight with little chance for
any rain under a SW wind of 10 mph. Lows mainly in the mid to
upper 70s. Clouds increase across the north ahead of the
approaching cold front and lead shortwave. Have introduced a
slight chance pop for the maryland eastern shore late tonight,
but best chances for measurable precipitation remain north and
west of the local area.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday
Models in good agreement with dropping the cold front into the
local area Wednesday morning, then pushing the front across the
area through Wednesday afternoon. Shearing vort lobe progged to
ride along the front as winds increase aloft. The added forcing
along the boundary along a narrow ribbon of high precipitable
waters will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Downslope flow from 1-3km
will limit the coverage over the piedmont, but hi-res and course
resolution guidance indicates that the activity should become
more organized central virginia eastward as it interacts a
moderately unstable air mass (mixed-layer CAPE values 500-1500
j kg) and marginal shear (25-30 knots). Dry mid levels and an
inverted v sounding indicate the main threat will be damaging
winds and frequent lightning. SPC maintains a marginal risk for
severe weather across the southeast half of the local area.

Heavy rainfall is also possible as the cold front slows as it
reaches southeast virginia and northeast north carolina
Wednesday afternoon. Precipitable water values progged around 2
to 2.25 inches. Westerly flow in the mid levels indicates that
the motion should prevent widespread heavy rainfall, but some
areas could see periods of heavy rainfall. No headlines planned
at this time. Flow becomes north to northeast behind the front,
as dry air spreads into the area from the northwest. The front
and upper wave push offshore Wednesday evening. Guidance
indicates a wave of low pressure develops along the front over
the carolinas, keeping rain chances in northeast north carolina
and far southeast virginia through Wednesday night. Highs
Wednesday range from the mid 80's northwest to around 90
southeast. Lows Wednesday night in the low to mid 60's inland to
the low 70's near the coast.

High pressure builds in from the northwest Thursday as the front
stalls along the southeast coast. Will keep low chance pops
across northeast north carolina Thursday nearest the front and
deepest moisture. Otherwise, dry, cooler and less humid
conditions expected. Highs Thursday forecast in the low to mid
80's under a partly cloudy sky.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Cooler and drier for the late week period courtesy of building
longwave upper level trough over the eastern united states.

Meanwhile, broad 1024+ mb surface high pressure builds south over
the interior northeast from great lakes Thursday and Friday,
eventually setting up over new england and ridging down the east
coast over the weekend into early next week. Forecast remains mostly
dry, although a few showers possible along the coast in persistent
onshore flow.

Medium range guidance in relatively good agreement with developing a
tropical system along and offshore of the southeast coast along the
old frontal boundary early next week. Kept weekend dry, with low
rain chances along the SE coast by Monday. Looking ahead, rain
chances look to improve into the middle of next week, with moisture
from the remnants of harvey looming to the sw. For temperatures,
high temperatures fri-mon will be at or just slightly below normal
through the period, mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. Early
morning lows in the 50s inland to mid 60s along the coast.

Aviation 23z Tuesday through Sunday
Vfr and dry conditions continue at the 00z TAF period with
high pressure just offshore. Skies are mostly clear with a few
cu that are generally dissipating. South to southwest winds
10-15 knots will prevail through the overnight.

A cold front approaches the region late tonight into wed
afternoon and evening. Flight restrictions will be possible
with the front later on Wednesday... Mainly in the late afternoon
into Wednesday night from showers and thunderstorms. The front
should exit the coast early Thursday morning with lingering
showers possible across far SE va NE nc. Conditions are
anticipated to improve Thursday afternoon into Friday as the
front shifts farther southeast and high pressure builds north of
the region. Breezy NE winds expected near the coast Thursday
and Friday.

Marine
A cold front will approach the waters from the northwest tonight,
crossing the area Wednesday through Wednesday night. Winds will
increase tonight ahead of the cold front with ssw winds of 15 to 20
knots possible across both the bay and ocean. A few wind gusts of 25
knots will also be possible across the northern ocean and bay zones.

As a result, went ahead and issued a small craft advisory for the
chesapeake bay tonight into early Wednesday morning. Waves will
build to 2 to 3 feet in the bay and seas will build to 3 to 5 feet
in the northern zones. Winds shift to the N NE 10 to 15 knots behind
the front by Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning.

Strong high pressure builds north of the region Thursday and into
the weekend. Expect wind speeds of 10 to 15 knots with a few
occasional gusts to 20 knots, particularly early Thursday morning as
the gradient tightens. Waves will be 1 to 3 feet and seas will be 2
to 4 feet.

Onshore (e-ne) flow for the late week period as high pressure builds
nnw of the local area. Winds remain elevated 10 to 15, occasional
gusts to ~20 kt through the late week period as a couple of waves
move across the stalled front to the south across the carolinas.

Seas remain choppy for the late week period into the weekend with
the persistent onshore flow, remaining 2-4 ft northern waters... 4-
5ft southern waters.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 pm this evening to 6 am edt
Wednesday for anz630>632-634-650-652.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb sam
short term... Lkb sam
long term... Mam
aviation... Sam jef
marine... Mam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 11 mi47 min SW 9.9 G 11
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 16 mi47 min SSW 8.9 G 12 85°F 86°F1011.8 hPa (-0.4)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 21 mi47 min SSW 9.9 G 13 85°F 82°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi37 min SSW 9.7 G 12 85°F 2 ft1011.2 hPa
NCDV2 22 mi47 min SSW 8.9 G 13 86°F 84°F1010 hPa (-0.6)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 28 mi47 min SSW 13 G 16 85°F 1012 hPa (-0.7)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi37 min S 12 G 14 85°F 1 ft1011.5 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi47 min S 16 G 17 84°F 85°F1012 hPa (-0.7)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi37 min SW 9.7 G 12 86°F 1 ft1013.1 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 47 mi77 min Calm 85°F 1013 hPa74°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 47 mi137 min S 7 87°F 1010 hPa73°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi47 min 84°F 83°F1012.3 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD16 mi54 minS 610.00 miFair83°F75°F77%1011.5 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD18 mi70 minS 410.00 miFair82°F71°F70%1012.2 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA19 mi52 minS 610.00 miFair85°F64°F50%1012.5 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD22 mi55 minS 610.00 miA Few Clouds83°F73°F74%1011.4 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S5S5S5S5S6S9S9SW8SW6S5S7S5S6S9S7S11S9S9S10S7
G16
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmSE5SE7SE5SE8S9SE7SE5SE10SE7SE8SE5SE4
2 days agoSE4S3S4S3NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalm3NE4CalmN7N44W65NE4E3NE3NE4E3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Holly, Nomini Creek, Virginia
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Mount Holly
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:52 AM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:28 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:22 PM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:45 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.61.11.61.921.81.410.60.30-00.30.81.31.71.81.81.51.10.70.40.10

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Tue -- 02:30 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:27 AM EDT     -1.08 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:28 PM EDT     0.52 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:39 PM EDT     -0.87 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:28 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.50.2-0.2-0.6-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.30.20.50.50.3-0-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.9-0.7-0.5-0.20.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.