Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Montross, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 4:54PM Friday November 16, 2018 11:51 AM EST (16:51 UTC) Moonrise 1:42PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 936 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..W winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 936 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will move off to the northeast today. High pressure will build in from the ohio valley today through Saturday. High pressure will move offshore Sunday and a weak cold front may pass through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montross, VA
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location: 38.1, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 160958
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
issued by national weather service newport morehead city nc
458 am est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move off to the northeast this morning. High
pressure resumes control as the low departs an and remains over
the region through the weekend and into next week.

Near term through Saturday
As of 450 am fri... Upper level low analyzed on h2o vapor
imagery over the central appalachians will eject NE toward new
england through the day today. Resultant w-sw downslope flow
will help to quickly scour out clouds this morning, and
scattered clouds are observed at area ASOS awos. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure rebuilds from the west late today into
Saturday, bringing a mostly clear sunny sky late Friday into the
weekend. Weak CAA at the surface will maintain temperatures
near or just below seasonal averages. Highs generally in the 50s
today Saturday and lows in the 30s inland to low 40s for
coastal SE va NE nc Saturday morning..

Short term Saturday night through Sunday
As of 325 pm est Thursday...

high pressure at the surface builds overhead into the upcoming
weekend, with a quieter, quasi-zonal flow aloft bringing a dry,
quiet wx weekend across the local area. Maxima do moderate through
Sunday, but temperatures look to remain at or just below climo
norms. Expect highs generally in the 50s to near 60 with early
morning lows generally into the low to mid 30s inland to around
40 at the coast.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
As of 345 pm est Thursday...

much quieter weather still on track for much of next week. A weak
upper-level shortwave approaches the area late Sunday-Monday
(coupled with a sfc cold front). Not much in the way of rain
expected with the fropa, but have slight chc pops for coastal NE nc
from 06-18z mon. Looks like the bulk of the rain will fall well
offshore after the front crosses the CWA by Mon aftn. Behind the
front, sfc high pressure settles just west of the region Mon night-
tue. However, am only expecting temperatures to drop to slightly
below average. A weak shortwave caught in NW flow aloft is progged
to swing through the mid-atlantic on Wed (coupled with another cold
front). However, moisture will be lacking across the area, so this
will be another (mainly) dry fropa. Canadian high pressure then
settles over the region on Wed night-thu am before moving offshore
by the end of the day on thu.

The cooler air lags behind the front a bit, so highs on Mon will
still be in the 50s to near 60. Cooler on Tue wed, with highs in the
upper 40s to near 50 north mid 50s south. Warming back up into the
50s area-wide on thu. Lows Monday night in the low-mid 30s
inland around 40 in coastal SE va-ne nc. Cooler on both Tuesday and
Wednesday night with lows ranging from near 30 NW to the mid-upper
30s se.

Aviation 10z Friday through Tuesday
As of 110 pm est Thursday...

deepening sfc low continues to lift n-ne along the carolina
coast this late this evening, bringing widespread ifr ceilings
and patchy reduced visibility in fog drizzle. Breezy to gusty
wind will occur through the night. Conditions will improve from
southwest to northeast across the terminals Friday morning,
withVFR conditions ensuing within a couple of hours after
sunrise at the latest.VFR conditions prevail through the rest
of the TAF period.

Outlook: high pressure prevails Friday night through Monday
with continuedVFR conditions expected.

Marine
As of 450 am est Friday...

low pressure exiting the region this morning. Strong pressure
rises in wake of departing low means strong wsw winds up to
gale force being observed across parts of the marine domain.

Winds have diminished enough to replace gales with SCA for all
but northern 2 3 of the coastal waters. Winds over the rivers
will diminish below SCA by late morning, then for the chesapeake
bay by mid evening tonight. Seas will follow suit by subsiding
below 5 feet tonight.

Calmer conditions return for the weekend as high pressure
settles back over the region.

Hydrology
As of 450 am est Thursday...

river flood warnings remain in effect for stony creek on the
nottoway, and mattoax on the appomattox, lawrenceville on the
meherrin and sebrell on the nottoway. Palmyra on the ravanna.

Richmond westham on the james.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for anz633-
635-636-638.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
anz630>632-634-656-658.

Gale warning until 10 am est this morning for anz650-652-654.

Synopsis...

near term... Tl @mhx
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Eri
aviation... Ajz mam
marine... Tl @mhx
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 11 mi39 min NW 15 G 17
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 16 mi39 min W 11 G 13 47°F 48°F1013.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 21 mi33 min W 8 G 14 47°F 53°F1012.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 21 mi31 min W 14 G 18 46°F 1012.5 hPa
NCDV2 22 mi39 min WSW 8 G 12 48°F 47°F1012.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 28 mi33 min NW 7 G 13 46°F 1013.1 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi31 min 47°F 1013.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 38 mi33 min W 15 G 19 46°F 46°F1013.2 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi31 min WNW 12 G 16 49°F 1014.8 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 47 mi81 min SW 5.1 48°F 1015 hPa36°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 47 mi141 min WNW 8 44°F 1011 hPa34°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi39 min 46°F 49°F1012.3 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD16 mi58 minW 710.00 miFair48°F37°F66%1012.7 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD18 mi68 minWSW 8 G 1410.00 miFair45°F35°F71%1013.2 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA19 mi76 minWSW 710.00 miFair47°F36°F68%1013.9 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD22 mi2 hrsWNW 1010.00 miFair44°F37°F76%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN8NW7664CalmCalmCalmNE8NE5NE10NE8NE8NE9NE9NE6NE10
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2 days agoW9
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W8W9NW9NW8NW6NW7NW85
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NW8NW5W46NW7NW7NW8N4NW7364NW4----

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Holly, Nomini Creek, Virginia
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Mount Holly
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:09 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:31 AM EST     1.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:20 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:54 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:47 PM EST     1.43 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.30.20.20.40.81.11.31.41.41.20.90.50.30.20.20.40.711.31.41.41.3

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Fri -- 04:03 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:02 AM EST     0.39 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:47 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:14 PM EST     -0.46 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:52 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:56 PM EST     0.35 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:18 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.3-00.30.40.30.2-0-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.200.30.40.30.1-0.2-0.5-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.