Montross, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montross, VA

May 10, 2024 4:47 AM EDT (08:47 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM
Moonrise 6:36 AM   Moonset 10:31 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 438 Am Edt Fri May 10 2024

Rest of the overnight - NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.

Today - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.

Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt - . Becoming N 5 kt late. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.

Sat - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.

Sat night - S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely.

Sun - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Sun night - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.

Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day. A chance of tstms. Showers likely through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 438 Am Edt Fri May 10 2024

Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
low pressure slowly pushes to the south today. Another low pressure system will quickly follow late Saturday into Sunday. High pressure will move overhead Sunday night and Monday before the next low pressure system approaches from the west Tuesday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Saturday night and again Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montross, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 100748 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 348 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

SYNOPSIS
An upper level trough will bring another round of showers and storms this afternoon into tonight. A chance for showers continues across mainly northern areas over the weekend. Dry and warmer weather to start next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Another round of showers/storms possible this afternoon and evening. While widespread severe is not expected, a few stronger storms are possible, especially for portions of northeast NC.

Early morning analysis shows weak low pressure over the region with a lingering boundary bisecting the area, roughly along the I-64 corridor. Aloft, flow is from the W-SW ahead of a shortwave trough digging SE across the Ohio Valley. Easterly flow is noted north of the front with continued SW winds to the south. Some elevated convection continues across the northern Ches Bay into the MD Eastern Shore. These showers with embedded thunder will continue to translate eastward and offshore early this morning.

Most of the area will be dry to start the day with just slight chance PoPs across the far northern counties through noon.
Temperatures will vary considerably today with the front lingering across the area. Highs may not reach 60 degrees across the MD Eastern Shore this afternoon with continued cool/onshore flow while areas along and SE of the I-64 corridor will warm into the mid 70s to low 80s. As the potent shortwave aloft approaches the region this afternoon, clouds increase and isolated to scattered showers will redevelop across the area. CAM guidance has backed off on the potential for stronger thunderstorms in our area this afternoon but favorable kinematics aloft and cool temps associated with the upper trough will keep the mention of thunder in the forecast. Brief gusty winds are possible with any of the deeper convective cores this afternoon. Forecast soundings show a few hundred J/Kg of SBCAPE but the more robust instability will be confined to central and southern NC. SPC has included a Marginal Risk of severe weather for areas near and south of the Albemarle Sound. Chance for showers will linger over the eastern half of the area this evening and toward the coast overnight as low pressure forms offshore and forces the cold front through the remainder of the area. Breezy near the coast late tonight with some bay-effect showers possible from Norfolk southward into NE NC. Lows fall into the upper 40s to low 50s as cold advection ensues behind the front.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers possible Saturday with an upper- level disturbance.

Surface low deepens offshore and pulls away from the coast on Saturday but another trough aloft dives SE toward the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Temps will range from the mid and upper 60s inland with low 60s forecast for the Atlantic side of the Eastern Shore. PoPs increase across the NW in the afternoon and spread east and northeast through the evening as the trough axis moves through the area. Limited low level moisture will keep QPF down despite the favorable lift ahead of the trough. Cool once again Saturday night with lows in the 40s to low 50s.

The upper trough will be slow to exit the region on Sunday and showers are expected to linger across the NE third of the area into the afternoon hours. Temperatures will vary quite a bit with sunshine allowing temps to rise into the low and mid 70s for the SW half of the area while clouds and precip should keep highs in the 60s elsewhere. Cool temps aloft will result in at least some elevated instability during the afternoon for the MD Eastern Shore so have included a slight chance of thunder in the wx grids. Drying out Sunday night as high pressure builds into the area with lows in the 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Warm and mostly sunny on Monday as high pressure moves offshore and return flow develops. High temps top out in the mid to upper 70s more most of the area. Some lower 70s are forecast along the Eastern Shore with the cool water influence and lower 80s are possible for portions of the NE NC. Clouds increase Monday night ahead of a digging southern stream trough. A few showers are possible across the west after midnight with lows back into the 50s to low 60s.

Unsettled conditions and above average rainfall are expected later Tuesday through most of next week as multiple southern stream systems move ENE towards the mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms are also possible from Tuesday through late week. Highs Tuesday will be warmest across the E (where precip holds off longest) and in the upper 70s, with lower 70s W. Temps next Wed and Thu hover a few degrees above/below 80F w/ overnight lows around 60F.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

Mix of flying conditions across the region early this morning with VFR noted over the southern half of the area and IFR/MVFR for areas north of the front. IFR CIGs likely likely linger through the forecast period at SBY. The front drops further S early Friday morning, potentially serving to focus additional showers/storms for Friday afternoon/evening (potentially leading to flight restrictions).

Outlook: Mainly dry/VFR most of Saturday, but another chance for showers Saturday night into Sunday. Dry conditions return Monday.

MARINE
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

-Key Messages:

-Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, Atlantic Ocean, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound from today through Saturday morning-afternoon.

-Prevailing sub-advisory conditions return by Saturday afternoon/evening, and are expected to persist through at least Monday.

A stationary front lingers over the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning, with E-NE winds of ~15kt north of it, and variable winds of 5-10kt across most of the bay and ocean S of Chincoteague. This boundary will slowly move south over the waters today, and will pick up speed this evening before dropping S of the local area tonight as low pressure develops and tracks NE off the NC Outer Banks. A NE wind is expected to increase to 15-20kt N of Chincoteague today with seas building to 5-7ft. Elsewhere, winds will be W-NW at 10-15kt for much of the day before becoming N-NNE and increasing to ~20kt this evening shortly after the FROPA. With decent CAA and water temps in the 60s to near 70F in many areas, went a bit higher than blended guidance for winds tonight and expect N-NNE winds to remain around 20kt (with frequent 25kt gusts) through much of the night. A few 30kt gusts are possible. As for headlines, SCAs go into effect this morning N of Parramore Island, and have been issued for all other zones (except for the upper rivers) starting late this aftn/this evening. The SCAs run through Sat AM-Sat aftn (ending across the nrn waters earliest/srn waters latest). Seas build to ~6ft across all ocean zones tonight, with 3-4ft waves on the bay. Winds quickly diminish to ~10kt by early Sat aftn as the pressure gradient relaxes as the low moves well offshore. Seas should quickly fall below 5ft by mid to late aftn.

A secondary front tracks across the coast later Saturday aftn/evening. The wind becomes SE 10-15kt ahead of the front and then shifts to NW late Saturday night/early Sunday. The current forecast is sub-SCA, although some guidance suggests low-end SCA conditions are possible over the Ches Bay. High pressure builds over the coast later Sunday into Monday. Another low pressure system and weak cold front impact the Mid-Atlantic coast in the Tuesday- Wednesday timeframe.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

-Key Messages:

-Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for almost all of the area bordering the Chesapeake Bay, Atlantic Ocean, and tidal rivers for tonight's high tide.

-Minor tidal flooding (inundation of ~1 foot above ground level in vulnerable areas) is expected during high tide tonight into early Saturday.

An increasing NE then N wind tonight into early Saturday along with elevated astronomical tides will bring a round of widespread minor tidal flooding across the area. Water levels are expected to crest a few tenths of a foot above minor flood thresholds in areas adjacent to the Ches Bay, Atlantic Ocean, and tidal rivers during tonight's high tide cycle. Levels at Oyster may crest right at the moderate flood threshold for that site. Went ahead and issued Coastal Flood Advisories for all areas except the bay side of the MD Eastern Shore, where levels are forecast to crest near or just above minor flood thresholds tonight. A Statement or Advisory may eventually be needed, but confidence isn't high enough to issue one attm.
Additional tidal flooding is expected Saturday night.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ024-025.
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ099-100.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ075-077.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ076-078-085-521-522.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ084-086-095-097-098-523.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ089-090-093-096-524-525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-654.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ638.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
NCDV2 14 mi48 min 0G4.1 58°F 70°F29.59
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 25 mi48 min NNE 5.1G7
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 30 mi48 min E 4.1G5.1 63°F 71°F29.58
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 32 mi48 min NE 6G8.9 60°F 67°F29.59
44042 - Potomac, MD 36 mi36 min ENE 7.8G9.7 60°F 67°F1 ft
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 38 mi48 min ENE 8G9.9 57°F 29.60
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 43 mi30 min ESE 12G16 56°F 65°F2 ft
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 48 mi78 min 0 57°F 29.5956°F


Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KXSA TAPPAHANNOCKESSEX COUNTY,VA 19 sm12 mincalm10 smOvercast61°F61°F100%29.60
Link to 5 minute data for KXSA


Wind History from XSA
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Leedstown, Rappahannock River, Virginia
   
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Leedstown
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Fri -- 12:02 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:47 AM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:01 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:29 PM EDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Leedstown, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.1
1
am
0.2
2
am
0.6
3
am
1.1
4
am
1.6
5
am
1.9
6
am
1.9
7
am
1.8
8
am
1.4
9
am
1.1
10
am
0.7
11
am
0.4
12
pm
0.2
1
pm
0
2
pm
0.2
3
pm
0.6
4
pm
1
5
pm
1.4
6
pm
1.6
7
pm
1.6
8
pm
1.3
9
pm
1
10
pm
0.7
11
pm
0.4


Tide / Current for Colonial Beach, Potomac River, Virginia
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Colonial Beach
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Fri -- 04:53 AM EDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:35 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:27 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:12 PM EDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:20 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Colonial Beach, Potomac River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.2
1
am
0.7
2
am
1.2
3
am
1.7
4
am
2.1
5
am
2.2
6
am
2
7
am
1.7
8
am
1.2
9
am
0.7
10
am
0.3
11
am
0.1
12
pm
0.1
1
pm
0.3
2
pm
0.7
3
pm
1.2
4
pm
1.5
5
pm
1.7
6
pm
1.6
7
pm
1.3
8
pm
1
9
pm
0.6
10
pm
0.3
11
pm
0.1


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Sterling, VA,




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