Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Piney Point, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:50PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 11:13 PM EST (04:13 UTC) Moonrise 2:09PMMoonset 2:32AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 936 Pm Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Rest of tonight..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Thu night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 4 ft. Rain.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 936 Pm Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build into the region and linger through Wednesday. The next low pressure system will approach from the southeastern united states late Thursday and cross the region Friday. Gale conditions are possible Thursday night through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Piney Point, MD
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location: 38.13, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 190205
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
905 pm est Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will be in place through Wednesday. A large area
of low pressure will impact the region Thursday and Friday.

Surface high pressure will move back towards the region by late
Saturday.

Near term through Wednesday night
High pressure will be in control through Wed night. With the
center of the high nearby tonight and only some thin cirrus
clouds passing by, radiational cooling should be efficient. Some
outlying areas have already dropped into the 20s. Lows will be
in the lower to mid 20s in most areas, with lower 30s in the
urban and nearshore areas.

Highs Wed a little warmer than today but seasonable in the mid
40s. Not as cold Wed night due to increased cloud cover ahead of
next storm system.

Short term Thursday through Thursday night
Very potent storm system will be affecting the east coast thu
night into Sat with potentially record slp values over our area for
the month of december with values fcst to be less than 990 mb.

There is a low, but non-zero threat that if precipitation moves
in early enough on Thursday, there could be some light freezing
rain in areas west of the blue ridge.

This system will be accompanied by a strong warm conveyor belt
bringing pw values over 1.5 inches which are near 400% or
nearly +4 stds of normal. Widespread heavy rainfall of 1.5 to
2.5 inches is expected with isold higher amts. Given saturated
soils from last weekend's rain and potentially intense rainfall
rates and training convection, flash flooding threat appears
very high with this event. A severe threat may also exist due to
strong low-level wind fields (i.E. 60kt 850 mb low- level jet)
particularly east of the blue ridge mtns. Best chance for heavy
rainfall and flooding threat is from 7pm Thu through about 10am
fri. See long term discussion below.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
Strong cold front will be crossing the region Friday. Convective
elements producing gusty winds and heavy rain will be possible
thanks to anomalously strong low level jet and very high pw's. Both
flash flooding and severe weather may be concerns.

After the front passes, strong pressure gradient as the low pressure
pushes up to southern canada will remain over our region, resulting
in a gusty wind and potentially wind advisory criteria (50 mph
gusts). This will extend from late Friday into Saturday. Upslope
snow showers will be another concern, with advisory level snow
potential along our westernmost zones.

After that, high pressure builds to the south later Saturday through
Sunday, with much more tranquil weather. A weak system then passes
Monday, but with little forcing and limited moisture, precip should
be extremely limited and will likely be restricted to upslope higher
terrain locations. Another high pressure will dominate for Monday
night and Tuesday with benign christmas weather expected.

With a relatively zonal flow in place, temperatures will be near
normal, perhaps even a little on the plus side, through the long
term.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr through 12z Thu with only high clouds. Nearly calm winds
tonight, becoming southerly 5-8 kt on Wednesday as high pressure
moves east. Flight restrictions (with some ifr) likely thu
afternoon through Thu night in moderate to heavy rainfall. Llws
also possible.

Heavy rain and gusty winds are a concern Friday, with potential for
gusty winds continuing into Saturday. Sub-vfr CIGS vis probable
Friday, but should improve toVFR by Saturday.

Marine
Winds have diminished under 10 kt this evening as high pressure
moves over the region. Sub-sca conditions expected through thu
with winds strengthening again Thu night with potential gales
through sat.

Strong front will bring potential for gusty showers, potentially up
to special marine warning criteria, Friday, then gales are possible
behind the front Friday night into Saturday.

Hydrology
River flooding has ended for now, with continued falling stages
are expected through thu. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches are expected Thu night into Friday. Renewed river
flooding appears likely Thu night through sat. Given high stream
levels and saturated ground, flooding will likely be reached
more quickly than the last system. Flash flood watch will
likely be required by this time tomorrow.

Tides coastal flooding
Anomalies will be increasing again Thursday night and Friday
with potential coastal flooding Thu night and fri.

Climate
Rainfall totals continue to creep upward, with baltimore md and
washington dc setting the annual record already. Here are the
current rankings for wettest year on record (through december
17th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 64.22 inches (2018)
2. 61.33 inches (1889)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 68.82 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 64.36 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Ads lfr
short term... Ads lfr
long term... Rcm
aviation... Ads rcm lfr
marine... Ads rcm lfr
hydrology... Lfr ads
tides coastal flooding... Lfr
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 0 mi49 min N 1 G 1
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 10 mi49 min Calm G 1 35°F 43°F1022.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 12 mi43 min W 3.9 G 3.9 40°F 1022.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 14 mi43 min W 1.9 G 2.9 35°F 43°F1022.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 20 mi43 min WNW 2.9 G 2.9 39°F 1023.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 27 mi43 min Calm G 1.9 40°F 42°F1023.1 hPa
NCDV2 30 mi49 min NW 1.9 G 1.9 31°F 40°F1022.3 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 39 mi49 min 33°F 42°F1022.7 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 42 mi43 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 41°F 1023.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 46 mi103 min Calm 29°F 1023 hPa26°F
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 49 mi43 min N 7 G 8 1023.5 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD5 mi20 minENE 310.00 miFair30°F27°F88%1022.2 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD13 mi81 minWSW 310.00 miA Few Clouds31°F28°F89%1022.5 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD13 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair30°F26°F86%1023 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW6NW5NW8NW9W95NW3NW6NW6NW9
G17
NW8NW7NW7NW6W8W7W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
1 day agoNW3W5W6W5W6W6W5W6W6SW6SW5SW7W8W7W8W6W3W4E333N43N8
G17
2 days ago----CalmCalmS3W3SW3CalmCalmSW4S4SW7W6NW4NW8NW105NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Piney Point, Maryland
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Piney Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:32 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:16 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:03 AM EST     1.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:17 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:36 PM EST     1.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.40.1-0-00.10.40.81.11.31.41.310.70.40.100.10.20.60.91.11.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Tue -- 01:11 AM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:32 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:02 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:35 AM EST     0.60 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:34 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:09 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:27 PM EST     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:53 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:09 PM EST     0.24 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:58 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.3-00.30.60.60.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.200.20.2-0-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.