Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 8:05 AM

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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1034 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am edt Sunday - .
Rest of tonight - S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed - N winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming se. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ500 1034 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a warm front will lift through the area by Sunday bringing a significant warm up. A cold front will cross the waters Tuesday bringing chances for showers and Thunderstorms. Small craft advisories may be needed at times through Tuesday.

FXUS61 KLWX 280014 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 814 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will lift through the area by Sunday bringing a significant warm up heading into early next week. The next chance for widespread precipitation arrives with a series of cold fronts Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As we progress through the evening hours, another round of showers may slide across the region from the west. Again, most guidance tears this band apart, and I am inclined to buy that trend as the energy associated with that band of showers is a bit weaker. Still, a spotty shower or two is possible mainly along and west of the Blue Ridge/north of US-50.

Cloud cover will gradually decrease through daybreak. Lows tonight will be mild in the 50s. Any breaks in the clouds could lead to patchy fog, especially over northern MD/eastern WV.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Well above normal temperatures Sunday into Monday as a deep ridge moves across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s Sunday, then mid to upper 80s Monday with a few spots hitting 90F. Even in the mountains, highs are forecast to reach the 70s both days. A couple of climate sites could tie or be near their daily record highs for April 30 / Monday. Very mild overnight lows mostly in the 60s, with 50s in the mountains. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure will remain off the southeast coast Tuesday while a cold front approaches from the Ohio Valley. A lee trough will likely be situated across the local area. Showers, and eventually thunderstorms, will develop across the area in response to the surface features and a shortwave trough aloft. With dew points only around 60F, instability will be on the weaker side of the spectrum.
Bulk shear values around 30 kt would support some strong storms if enough instability can develop. Increasing clouds may knock a few degrees off temperatures, but it will still be very warm with highs in the mid 80s to around 90. Some showers and storms could linger into the night depending on the timing of the forcing.

The front will likely push through the area by Wednesday and the influence of high pressure in New England will likely stabilize the area. However, temperature/dew point contrast behind the front won't be high, with highs still well above normal in the upper 70s to mid 80s. What's left of the front will lift back northward Thursday in response to low pressure moving into the Great Lakes. Thursday should be dry for most of the area as forcing remains to the west.

Timing of the system's progression then becomes more uncertain.
Therefore a chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will remain well above normal during this time.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions return by mid evening and remain in place through Monday as high pressure builds across the region. An exception may be a period of fog near CHO/MRB 07z-14z Sunday.
Winds vary between southwest to west at around 5-10 knots Sunday through Monday.

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Southwesterly wind gusts up to 20 kt are possible Tuesday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday with light winds.

MARINE
Southerly channeling is producing SCA conditions this evening, mainly in the main channel of the Chesapeake Bay. Some surrounding tidal rivers and bays on the Eastern Shore could see SCA winds this evening, so expanded the SCA a couple zones.

High pressure builds over the region Sunday into Monday, keeping winds below SCA levels. Winds vary from southwest to west at or around 10 knots.

Marginal SCA conditions are possible Tuesday in southwest flow.
There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, which could bring strong wind gusts. High pressure will likely provide lighter winds Wednesday and Thursday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal anomalies continue to be on the decrease at this time, so no further tidal flooding is expected over the next several high tide cycles for most areas. DC SW Waterfront could perhaps could be close during the Sunday morning high tide, but the trend is certainly down at this time.

A steady southwest flow could bring some water up the Chesapeake Bay early in the week, but it isn't the most favorable direction to cause tidal issues.

CLIMATE
Near-record to record warmth is possible on Monday afternoon.
Below is a list of record high temperatures for April 29th, and the year the record was set.

Apr 29th Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 91F (2017+) 90F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 89F (2017) 89F Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1951) 88F Martinsburg (MRB) 93F (1974) 85F Charlottesville (CHO)* 92F (1974) 88F Hagerstown (HGR)* 90F (1974) 87F Annapolis (NAK)* 92F (1974) 83F

+ denotes that multiple years reached this value, but the depicted year is the most recent * denotes sites where Record Event Reports (RERs) are not issued

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ531>533-537- 540-541.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ534-543.

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Piney Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:32 AM EDT     1.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:17 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:19 PM EDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:52 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Piney Point, Maryland, Tide feet

Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315° true
Ebb direction 145° true

Sat -- 02:00 AM EDT     0.62 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:02 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:12 AM EDT     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:10 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:10 PM EDT     0.18 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:47 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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