Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Snow Hill, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 4:51PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 10:32 AM EST (15:32 UTC) Moonrise 12:28PMMoonset 10:50PM Illumination 40% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 1017 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
.gale warning in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening...
Rest of today..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 4 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of rain late.
Thu..E winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 30 to 35 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds, building to 11 to 13 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late in the evening, then becoming se 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt late. Seas 12 to 14 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds, subsiding to 10 to 12 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds after midnight. Rain, mainly in the evening.
Fri..W winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 10 ft, subsiding to 6 to 8 ft in the late morning and afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ600 1017 Am Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Strong northerly winds will persist today in the wake of a cold front. A strong low pressure system is forecast to impact the region later tonight into Thursday bringing gale conditions to a majority of the waters. High pressure slowly builds in from the west Friday into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Snow Hill, MD
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location: 38.15, -75.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 141143
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
643 am est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
High pressure briefly builds over the northeast states today.

Another complex area of low pressure affects the region Thursday.

High pressure and dry conditions return Friday into the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 645 am est Wednesday...

high pressure quickly moves east across the nern states later
today and tonight. Still noting some lingering light rain along
the albemarle sound so kept slght chc pops there for few hours
as the latest high res data shunts all pcpn south of the fa by
15z. Otw, the high will provide enough dry air in the lower
levels to give the area a dry but cool day ahead of the next
system quickly taking shape across the south. Tsctns show mainly
high mid level clouds so expect pt sunny skies north with mstly
cloudy skies south. Highs 45-50.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
As of 345 am est Wednesday...

the high quickly retreats to the NE tonight. Meanwhile, a deep upper
low moves ene from the lower ms valley through the tn valley on thu.

At the sfc, the fa will be wedged in between the strong retreating
high and sfc low pressure riding NE into the southern appalachians
along with a secondary sfc low developing along the carolina coast.

00z suite of data continues to show pcpn arriving across the south
during the evening then quickly spreading NE through the night.

An insitu-wedge scenario is shaping up with the likelyhood for some
mixed pcpn thurs morning across nwrn zones mainly NW of richmond.

The challenge as we see just about every year at akq is to what
extent any freezing rain falls vs a rain sleet to rain scenario. The
latest models have come in just a tad warmer in the lower levels.

The latest bufkit sndgs suggests some freezing rain may mix in with
sleet across fluvanna and WRN louisa county with just a rain sleet
mix to rain scenario from fvx-ofp. Sfc and wet bulb temps will be
hovering arnd 32 33 degrees so this will be a marginal event at best
with not much in the way of icing expected. Thus, after coord with
lwx and given the uncertainity, will hold off on any winter advsry
headline with this package and let the day shift further evaluate
sfc temps for later tonight. Otw, a cold rain overspreads the area
through the night. Lows ranging from the lwr 30s-lwr 40s. The other
issue will be temps across the lwr md ERN shore where temps after
sunset will likely drop to near 32 before rising after midnight
allowing the pcpn to be mainly liquid form. This area will have to
be watched for a brief mix at the onset but will keep it just rain
for now.

Next comes another batch of mdt to lclly heavy rainfall Thursday as
the models are showing decent lift ahead of the low. A widespread 1-
2 inch QPF event is likely thurs before a punch of drier air cuts
off the strong lift thurs night. Given that we just got a 1-2 inch
event yesterday, will go ahead and issue a flood watch fa wide given
the already saturated ground. Thinking is not one for flash flooding
but the typical flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas as
well as local rivers and streams which are already running higher
than normal. 100% pops with r+ at times. Expect a 25-30 degree temp
difference across the fa with temps nearly steady in the mid-upr 30s
nw to between 60-65 alog the SE cstl areas.

Pcpn assciated with the upr level system keeps the high pops thurs
evening with pops tapering off to some light rain drizzle after
midnight as the system begins to pull north. Lows mid 30s NW to mid
40s se.

The flow becomes a bit more zonal late in the week with high pres
building into the sern states. Dry, breezy and milder Fri with highs
ranging from the lower 50s NW to around 60 f se. Clr Fri night with
lows from the upr 20s NW to lwr 40s se.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 345 am est Wednesday...

relatively quiet wx with temps averaging a few degrees below
normal. Sfc hi pres will build into the region Sat then weaken
sun. A weak cold front will approach from the NW late sun... Then
cross the fa late Sun night-mon. Will carry pops about 20% w
the frontal passage... Esp ERN portions. NW flow aloft will bring
a return to dry but breezy cooler wx by Tue as hi pres builds
towards the region.

Highs Sat in the l-m50s... Except u50s far se. Lows Sat night in the
l-m30s W to the l40s at the coast. Highs Sun in the l-m50s... Except
u50s in SE va-ne nc. Lows Sun night in the m-u30s... W l-m40s
at the coast. Highs Mon in the l-m50s... Except u50s in SE va-ne
nc. Highs Tue from the u40s N to the l50s s.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 630 am est Wednesday...

vfr conditions expected for most of the forecast period as high
pressure builds into the area from the nw. Cig wise, expect sct
cu under a bkn ac deck. Still noting some lingering light rain
ivof the albemarle sound so kept vcsh at ecg next few hrs as
the high res data shunts all pcpn south of the area by 15z.

Mid level moisture quickly returns this evening with some light
rain and lower clouds developing after 08z. N-ne winds become
gusty btwn 15-25 kts along the SE coastal sites.

Outlook...

the next complex area of low pressure will impact the Thu thu
night, bringing a return to ifr MVFR flight restrictions
(periods of moderate to heavy rain expected on thu). A rather
strong E NE wind can also be expected near the coast thu. Drier
air returns Fri but a gusty W NW wind will prevail. Dry Sat with
diminishing winds.

Marine
As of 345 am est Wednesday...

cold air surging into the region behind a departing cold front has
allowed for NW winds to increase early this morning with winds
gusting 20 to 25 knots over a majority of the waters. Seas generally
range from 4 to 6 feet while waves range from 2 to 4 feet. Do expect
wind to die off slightly as we head into the late morning and
afternoon hours as high pressure briefly settles into the region.

Seas will likely remain at or above 5 feet and wind gusts will
remain borderline around 20 knots, so opted to leave the small craft
advisory in effect through today.

A strong low pressure system approaches from the south later today
into Thursday. This system will move along the coast during the day
on Thursday before racing off to the northeast by Thursday night.

Winds quickly increase later in the day on Wednesday ahead of this
system and reach gale force by early Thursday morning. NE winds will
likely gust 35 to 40 knots through the day Thursday as the low
approaches the region. As a result, gale warnings are now in effect
for all waters minus the upper rivers Thursday morning through
Thursday evening. Seas will increase to 8 to 12 feet and waves 4 to
6 feet with higher waves at the mouth of the bay. High surf
advisories and wind advisories might be needed at the immediate
coast during the day Thursday into Thursday night.

A brief lull in the winds is expected late Thursday as the low moves
along the coast. Winds turn to the NW Thursday night into Friday
morning and potentially gust to gale force once again over the
coastal waters. Winds will remain in the 20 to 30 knot range into
Friday afternoon. Winds and seas will remain stirred up into
Saturday morning, likely requiring additional SCA headlines. Calmer
conditions return for the weekend as high pressure settles over the
region.

Hydrology
As of 645 am est Wednesday...

river flood warnings remain in effect for stony creek on the
nottoway, farmville and mattoax on the appomattox, lawrenceville
on the meherrin and sebrell on the nottoway. Expect additional
rises and possible warnings on local rivers given the expected
rainfall Thursday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Flood watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
mdz021>025.

Nc... Flood watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
ncz012>017-030>032-102.

Va... Flood watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for
vaz048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Thursday for anz630-631-
638-650-652-654.

Gale warning from 7 am to 10 pm est Thursday for anz650-652-
654.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Thursday for anz632>634-
656-658.

Gale warning from 4 am to 7 pm est Thursday for anz632>634-656-
658.

Small craft advisory from 4 am to 7 pm est Thursday for
anz635>637.

Gale warning from 7 am to 7 pm est Thursday for anz630-631.

Gale warning from 7 am to 4 pm est Thursday for anz638.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Alb mpr
aviation... Mpr
marine... Ajb
hydrology... Mpr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 38 mi43 min 16 G 19 59°F5 ft1030.2 hPa (+2.8)

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD14 mi40 minN 810.00 miFair43°F25°F49%1030.7 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD17 mi39 minNNW 1010.00 miFair42°F28°F58%1031 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA17 mi39 minNNW 11 G 1410.00 miFair43°F27°F53%1030.7 hPa

Wind History from OXB (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNE6--E65SE5CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmW5NW4CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4

Tide / Current Tables for Public Landing, Chincoteague Bay, Maryland
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Public Landing
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Wed -- 05:15 AM EST     0.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:29 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:27 PM EST     0.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:51 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.20.30.30.30.30.30.20.20.10.10.10.20.20.30.40.40.40.40.30.20.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current
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Salisbury
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Wed -- 02:45 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:07 AM EST     0.29 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:34 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:53 AM EST     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:29 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:33 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:26 PM EST     0.41 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:29 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:52 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:36 PM EST     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (10,2,3,4)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.