Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tall Timbers, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:21PM Thursday January 24, 2019 1:40 AM EST (06:40 UTC) Moonrise 9:41PMMoonset 9:52AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 116 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
.gale warning in effect through this afternoon...
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through late tonight...
Overnight..S winds 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 ft. Rain.
Thu..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 45 kt... Becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Waves 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt...becoming W 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt late. Waves 4 ft...subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 kt...becoming s. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 116 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front over the ohio valley will cross the waters this afternoon as low pressure passes through the region. A reinforcing front will push through the waters on Friday, with high pressure transiting the area through the weekend. Small craft advisories are likely Friday and Friday night, and may be required Saturday night and Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tall Timbers, MD
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location: 38.15, -76.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 240604
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
104 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will approach from the west tonight, with an area
of low pressure intensifying along the front Thursday morning. The
trailing cold front crosses the area Thursday afternoon. High
pressure builds in again for the weekend.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 830 pm est Wednesday...

warm front has made it through most of the fa... W only far wnw
areas (well wnw of ric) still hanging onto sfc cold air wedge.

Breezy and warm elsewhere W mostly cloudy conditions w... Partly
cloudy e. S winds will remain gusty to 20-30 mph overnight... Highest
e of I 95 to the coast. Both kakq and kdox radars currently
down so determining pcpn coverage difficult. Sfc obs void of any
-ra so far. Using nearby radar to the W and s... Some patchy -ra
appears to be moving slowly E in WRN va... And slowly N in nc.

Based on near term hi res model guidance... Continuing the trend
of slowly raising pops mainly w-e overnight... Eventually to
80-100% far W and 20-40% at the coast. Lows are generally near
current values... From the l-m40s far wnw to the 50s elsewhere.

Short term 6 am this morning through Saturday
As of 350 pm est Wednesday...

the low tracks NE along the advancing cold front Thu morning
with the trailing cold front crossing the area through the day,
pushing offshore by 21z Thu to 00z fri. Data shows a decent
slug of SRN stream moisture combined with strong lift btwn 12z-
18z just ahead of the cold front. Some convective elements noted
for a band of locally heavy downpours. Thus, continued with some
r+ for a 3-6 hr period. Also see the potential for brief wind
gusts to 35-45 mph sometime from 12-15z give or take an hr or
two. Opted against a wind advisory in favor of issuing sps's as
the duration is expected to be only 1-2 hrs. If a wind advisory
were to be issued by next shift, would likely be the eastern
shore and far SE va NE nc. Pcpn quickly tapers off to some
light rain or showers Thu aftn west to east as the front pushes
all the deep moisture towards the coast. Mild with highs upper
50s NW and most of the eastern shore to lower-mid 60s most other
places. QPF will avg 0.75" to 1.25".

Clearing and colder Thu night as weak high pressure briefly builds
in from the nw. Lows mid upper 20s NW to mid 30s se. A trailing
upper level shortwave will cross the area on Fri and after a
sunny start will see some clouds develop by late morning early
aftn. There will be decent lift due to the upper energy aloft,
but low levels look very dry so did not add any pops at this
time (though will need to watch this closely as a 20% pop may be
needed). Back to near normal temps Fri with highs mainly in the
40s and then below normal temps Fri night (lows in the upper
teens to mid 20s) and Sat (highs upper 30s to lower 40s) as
cold high pressure builds in and settles over the region.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 350 pm est Wednesday...

fairly quiet conditions for much of the extended period in our area.

An upper level disturbance skirts north of the area during the day
on Sunday which may lead to some light precipitation across the far
northern portions of the area. Due to the lack of moisture, just
maintained a slight chance of pops across the north into Sunday
night. Warm air advection develops Monday into Tuesday as upper
heights build ahead of another great lakes low pressure system. The
associated cold front approaches the region late in the day on and
crosses the region early Wednesday bringing the potential for rain
or snow showers across the region. Much colder conditions work into
the region by Wednesday night.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
As of 105 am est Thursday...

low pressure and an associated cold front will push ewd across
the mountains early this morning, and then arrive into the
region later this morning, before pushing offshore this aftn. A
strong pressure gradient ahead of this system will result in a
modestly strong S wind of 12-15kt with gusts to ~25kt early,
will then increase to 15-20kt with gusts of 25-30kt (locally up
to 35kt toward the coast). The potential for llws of 45-60kt
~2kft will continue early this morning, mainly for
sby phf orf ecg. The wind will become westerly in the wake of
the cold front with gusts to ~20kt. Light rain will overspread
the region from 08-12z, with a period of moderate to heavy rain
passing across the region later this morning through early aftn.

Generally MVFR CIGS are expected, with a low probability if ifr
cigs. A period of ifr vsby will likely occur with the heaviest
rain, and this will likely occur after 12z for the TAF sites.

Drier air quickly arrives behind the cold front this aftn with
rain ending from about 16-19z. Mostly clear by tonight with a nw
wind of 5-10kt.

A weak and dry cold front crosses the area Friday, with high
pressure building into the region Friday night through Monday.

Marine
As of 400 pm est Wednesday...

a digging upper trough from the central plains ewrd into the
oh tn valleys will result in sfc low pressure and an associated
frontal boundary will push into the area fm the west tonight
into Thu morning. Increasingly steep pressure gradient between
departing high pressure and the approaching low frontal
boundary will allow S winds to increase to 15-25 kt with gusts
to 30-40 kt very late tonight thru Thu morning. Have gone with a
gale warning for the NRN three coastal zns (650-654) from late
tonight into early Thu aftn, due to gusts to 35-40 kt in these
areas. Have maintained sca's for the remainder of the waters
into early Thu aftn, with gusts 30-35 kt possible at the mouth
of the ches bay, the currituck sound, and the SRN two coastal
zns. Waves will build to 3-5 ft in the ches bay tonight into
thu morning, with seas building to 7-12 ft.

Will have to monitor for the potential for a high surf advisory
on Thu from roughly CAPE charles light northward. Winds will
become NW behind the frontal boundary late Thu aftn. Cold
advection behind the front appears rather anemic with northwest
winds 10-20 kt in its wake, decreasing further Thu evening.

Seas will be slow to subside Thu into Fri morning, with sca's
for the coastal zns lasting into Fri morning.

High pressure builds into the region Fri into Sat with tranquil
marine conditions in store through the upcoming weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 350 pm est Wednesday...

departures will continue to rise in the strong S flow through
thu morning (especially in the mid upper bay) but not expecting
any sites to hit minor flood thresholds at this time.

Equipment
As of 100 am est Thursday...

the kdox radar is currently down for a faulty azimuth motor.

Parts will need to be ordered and a return to service time is
unknown.

The kakq radar remains down due to a pedestal slip ring
assembly failure. Due to the time to procure ship the needed
parts, and the repair time, the radar will remain down through
at least Friday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for
anz635>637.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
anz630>634-638.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est early this morning for
anz650-652-654.

Gale warning from 4 am early this morning to 1 pm est this
afternoon for anz650-652-654.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Friday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Alb lkb
near term... Alb
short term... Lkb
long term... Ajb mrd
aviation... Ajz
marine... Tmg rhr
tides coastal flooding... Akq
equipment... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 5 mi59 min S 13 G 15
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 14 mi53 min S 11 G 12 56°F 37°F1011.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 15 mi53 min SSE 12 G 15 54°F 39°F1010.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi53 min S 20 G 21 46°F 1011.9 hPa
NCDV2 25 mi53 min S 9.9 G 15 58°F 34°F1009.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 32 mi53 min SSE 12 G 15 43°F 1012.5 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi53 min 53°F 35°F1012 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 44 mi131 min SSE 11 46°F 1012 hPa44°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi58 minSE 410.00 miOvercast54°F50°F88%1011.8 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD16 mi1.8 hrsS 710.00 miOvercast57°F55°F93%1012.6 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA24 mi46 minSSE 9 G 1410.00 miOvercast59°F54°F85%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--SW5W8SW5CalmSE4SE3E5SE4S7S6S6S7S8S10S10S6S10SW8S6S7S6----
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Coles Point, Virginia
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Coles Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:28 AM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:51 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:41 AM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:51 PM EST     1.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:11 PM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.61.21.61.91.81.510.50.1-0.2-0.3-0.10.41.11.61.921.71.30.80.3-0.1-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Thu -- 01:26 AM EST     0.50 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:54 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:32 AM EST     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:51 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:16 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:28 PM EST     0.59 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:02 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:19 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:05 PM EST     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.50.50.3-0-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.4-0.10.30.60.60.40-0.4-0.7-1-1.1-1-0.8-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.