Thursday, April18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tall Timbers, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:48PM Thursday April 18, 2019 12:47 PM EDT (16:47 UTC) Moonrise 6:00PMMoonset 5:17AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1101 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Rest of today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt...becoming S 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 3 ft late.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers and tstms.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1101 Am Edt Thu Apr 18 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will cross the waters today. Strong low pressure and its cold front will likely impact the waters Friday and Friday night, with its effects lingering into the weekend. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Friday night through Saturday night, possibly continuing into Sunday. Gale warnings are possible Friday and Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tall Timbers, MD
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location: 38.15, -76.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 181450
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1050 am edt Thu apr 18 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will lift well north of the area this afternoon. A
strong cold front arrives late Friday. An upper level low will
be slow to lift northeast over the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1045 am edt Thursday...

late this morning, a warm front was still lingering acrs extrm
nrn va, as sfc winds just about everywhere over the CWA were ssw
genearlly 5-10 kt. That warm front will lift well north of the
region this aftn. This will result in a warm day acrs the
entire fcst area, esply near the coast in va-md, as compared to
yesterday, even right near the waters of the bay ocean (though
those areas will not be as warm as inland). Mainly sct-bkn ci
this aftn, and sct high based cu, esply inland. Ssw winds will
average 10-15 kt, with gusts to 20-25 kt. Highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s, except upper 60s to lower 70s right along the
immediate coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday
As of 410 am edt Thursday...

the first slug of overrunning moisture pcpn in advance of a cold
front will start to move into the area from the wsw late
tonight Fri morning m the wsw late Thu night into Fri morning
(mainly west of i-95). Remaining mild tonight W most lows
60-65f.

Upper trough sharpens significant W of the mountains Fri and
eventually closes off as it pushes into the tn valley fri. The
attendant sfc lo lifts NE into the ERN oh valley Fri afternoon
w its trailing cold front entering the mountains early fri
evening. That front will be slow to push E to the coast fri
night due to deep layered S flow sfc-aloft. Models continue to
hone in on a narrow axis of moisture deep layered moisture.

This influx of deep layer gulf moisture will once again support
pw values of 1.5-1.75" (or +2 to +3 std dev) over the local
area late Fri into Fri night, and cause a spike in sfc dew
points. Expect periods of showers tstms with the potential for
some locally heavy rainfall Fri aftn into Fri night. QPF of
1-1.5" W the potential for locally higher totals. SPC continues
w a slight risk for the NRN portion of the fa Fri fri night and
an enhanced risk over the SRN half (of va into NE nc).

Additionally... Most of the fa is in a slight risk for excessive
rainfall. Highs on Fri will range through the 70s... U60s right
at the immediate coast.

Regarding the convective threat, there remains some question as
to how much instability can be generated given the forecasted
cloud coverage, but that may be overtaken to some degree by the
favorable dynamics the system will have. Strong forcing for
ascent will exist W wind field aloft easily able to support
damaging winds in any bowing line segments. Additionally,
potential slight backing of near sfc low level winds across se
va-ne nc will need to be watched very closely fri
afternoon... ESP if any clearing can be realized.

Aside from anticipated possible hydro issues, timing for any
strong svr storms appear to be late aftn evening (4p-8p) west
of i95, between 8p-midnight along and east of i95, and 12a-3a
along the immediate coast. Rainfall convective wind potential
will continue to be highlighted in the hwo, and will continue to
mention for gusts even outside of convection due to tightening
pressure gradient Fri morning. Appears our area may approach
wind advisory criteria ahead of storms Fri morning afternoon
along the coast... And will need to monitor that in future
packages.

The cold front pushes offshore late Fri night early Sat but
lingering moisture combined an upper low to our W may lead to
isold sct shras during the remainder of sat. Otw... Partly sunny
to mostly cloudy on sat. Lows Fri night ranging from the m50s w
to the l60s e. Highs on Sat in the m-u60s.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 400 pm edt Wednesday...

upper-level low will be over the area during the day on Sunday. 20-
40 pops were put in for Sunday with the greatest chance in the
northern parts of the area. As the upper-level low moves off to the
ne, a SW flow will begin ahead of a front that moves south out of
the great lakes. With the upper-level flow out of the west early
next week, the front will stall and a chance of showers will be
around for tue-wed. Models are showing that a wedge may develop
Tuesday night and into Wednesday with scattered showers around.

Temperatures will be cool on Sunday with the upper-level low over
the area. Highs will be in the upper 60s to near 70 and lows in the
40s inland to mid 50s along the coast and eastern shore. 80s will
return for Monday all the way to the atlantic coast with a SW wind.

Temps will remain mild for the remainder of the week as a front
stalls across the area, with highs ranging from the 60s to near
70.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
As of 635 am edt Thursday...

other than sct-bkn st INVOF sby potentially until mid
morning...VFR conditions expected through the 12z TAF forecast
period. A warm front will lift northward across the area today
with south and southwest winds 10-15 knots and gusts 20-25 knots
this afternoon. The next storm system will begin to impact the
area fri, with flight restrictions possible in showers tstms in
advance of the next cold front. Mdt-hvy downpours along with
strong gusty winds possible Fri afternoon into Fri night.

Marine
As of 300 am edt Thursday...

weak sfc frontal boundary situated near the mouth of the ches
bay ATTM W sfc hi pres exiting SE new england. The front will
return N as a warm front this morning as the sfc hi pres sets up
off the coast. Ese winds mainly AOB 10 kt to start... Then
becoming S this morning... Increasing to generally 15 kt... Maybe
to 20 kt late at the mouth of the bay and on the ocean waters.

Seas expected to reach near 5 ft this evening CAPE charles va
on n. Scas expected to start this evening on the NRN portion of
the ocean waters then for the bay and the SRN ocean waters
tonight. Solid 20-25 kt sse winds expected most of Fri or by fri
afternoon as sfc pres gradient tightens ahead of a cold front
approaching from the w.

Concern shifts to Fri evening night as period of strong scas
(sustained)... And possible gale gusts (esp S of CAPE charles
va). Wind probs continuing to show near 50% prob for gale gusts
over far SRN ocean waters... Though some of the model guidance
has shown a bit of a weakening trend from past runs. Convection
will also likely cross the waters Fri night accompanied by gusty
winds. Won't extend SCA past 00z 20... But will add a gale watch
from 00z-08z 20 S of parramore island va (to currituck beach
light nc). Waves seas rise as well in response to the stronger
s winds by Fri afternoon into Fri night.

Slowly improving conditions are expected over the weekend as an
upper level low is slow to exit to the ne.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 300 am edt Thursday...

increased S winds Friday into Friday night will result in
rising tidal departures to 1 to 1.5 ft above mllw on the lower
md eastern shore along the ches bay (esp crisfield and bishops
head md). Minor flooding is possible during the times of high
tide Fri afternoon and Fri night.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Friday for anz633-
635>638.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt
Friday for anz634-650.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 8 pm edt Friday
for anz630>632-652-654.

Gale watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for
anz654-656-658.

Small craft advisory from 1 am to 8 pm edt Friday for anz656-
658.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Alb tmg
short term... Alb
long term... Cp
aviation... Alb
marine... Alb mpr
tides coastal flooding... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 5 mi47 min SE 6 G 6
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 14 mi47 min WSW 8.9 G 13 73°F 61°F1015.7 hPa (-0.6)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 15 mi47 min SSW 5.1 G 8 69°F 57°F1015.1 hPa (-0.8)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi47 min S 13 G 13 58°F 1016.4 hPa
NCDV2 25 mi47 min E 5.1 G 7 62°F 64°F1014.7 hPa (-1.1)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 32 mi47 min S 12 G 16 65°F 66°F1016.6 hPa (-0.3)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi47 min 71°F 60°F1015.6 hPa (-0.8)
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi47 min S 7.8 G 7.8 62°F 59°F1015.2 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD11 mi54 minS 910.00 miFair72°F60°F66%1015.5 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi64 minSW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F59°F65%1016.3 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD16 mi55 minSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds74°F59°F60%1015.6 hPa
Tappahannock-Essex County Airport, VA24 mi72 minS 710.00 miFair72°F59°F65%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E8E8NE8E9E9E10
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E7E8E8E8E6E7E7CalmNE3E6E5E3E4SE4S6S6S9
1 day agoW11W7W53S9SE5SE4S6S6S7S8S8S10SW8SW8SW5SW4SW5W6N3Calm4NE74
2 days agoW21
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Tide / Current Tables for Coles Point, Virginia
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Coles Point
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Thu -- 01:55 AM EDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:16 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:24 PM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:30 PM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.22.32.11.61.10.60.2-000.411.51.92.22.11.71.20.70.30.100.40.9

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Thu -- 01:23 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:17 AM EDT     -1.03 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:28 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:13 AM EDT     0.49 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:21 PM EDT     -0.89 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:44 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:09 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:28 PM EDT     0.70 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.1-0.3-0.6-0.9-1-1-0.8-0.5-0.20.20.50.40.2-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.4-0.10.40.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.