Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tall Timbers, MD
May 20, 2024 11:45 PM EDT (03:45 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:49 AM Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 4:39 PM Moonset 3:05 AM |
ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 1033 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Rest of tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night.
Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1033 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will build over the waters through Tuesday. A strong cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal system will settle south of the area Friday before retreating back toward the waters this weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.
high pressure will build over the waters through Tuesday. A strong cold front will approach the waters Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal system will settle south of the area Friday before retreating back toward the waters this weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday.
FXUS61 KAKQ 210014 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 814 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 810 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Lows in the low-mid 50s tonight with fog formation again possible across the entire forecast area
High pressure is settling in over the area this evening. Aloft, a trough is pushing offshore and a strong ridge is building in behind it. Clouds have cleared for all but the Eastern Shore and areas near the coast from Norfolk southward into NE NC.
Overnight, temps will cool into the low-mid 50s. Expecting cloud cover to build back in from the east overnight, but should remain scattered over the western half of the area. Fog formation is also expected across the entire area overnight.
Latest guidance shows increasing potential for widespread areas of fog with visibility dropping to 1/2 mile or less late tonight. Will continue to monitor these trends and a Dense Fog Advisory or Special Weather Statement are possible once again overnight through 8-10am.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...
Key Message:
- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend.
- An approaching cold front brings chances showers and thunderstorms Thursday, a few of which could be strong to severe.
High pressure remains in place over the area through mid-week and gradually shifts to the south. The ridge aloft will continue to build through early Wed, then gets suppressed Wed into Thurs. Skies will be mostly clear Tue and Wed. A cold front approaches from the NW on Thurs. Based on 12z global guidance, the front looks to enter the local area late evening Thurs. Northwestern portions of the area should see precip in the late afternoon, then showers/storms move into the remainder of the area later that evening. Thunder seems likely (especially in the afternoon/evening) given sufficient instability from day-time heating. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N.
Temperatures follow a warming trend through the week. Highs on Tues will be in the low 80s in the piedmont, upper 70s in the E, and upper 60s-low 70s immediately at the coast courtesy of onshore flow.
Highs on Wed warm into the upper 80s inland and low-mid 80s immediately along the coast. Cannot rule out a few places touching 90. Hot again on Thurs with highs in the mid-80s to around 90. Lows Tues night in the upper 50s, mid-60s Wed and Thurs night.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend.
A lot of uncertainty in the long term, but the pattern looks to be generally unsettled. Thursday night's cold front will likely stall out over or near the local area due to a weak flow aloft. This will create daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and into early next week, mostly in the afternoon and evenings. Due to the uncertainty, stuck close to the PoPs from the blended guidance. However, capped PoPs at Chnc and did some light editing to reflect the diurnal nature. Regarding temps, Friday has trended warmer with highs now getting into the mid-80s most places and low 80s on the Eastern Shore. Likely a bit cooler on Sat and Sun with temps in the upper 70s-around 80 across the N and up to the mid- 80s in the far south. Back to the low-mid 80s everywhere W of the bay on Mon (upper 70s on Eastern Shore). Lows will be in the low-mid 60s through this period.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 810 PM EDT Monday...
High pressure is settling into the area this evening. Skies have cleared over most of the area but MVFR/IFR CIGs are noted near the immediate coast. ECG and ORF have already fallen into IFR territory and are expected to remain there through mid morning or so. Expect IFR conditions to spread west toward SBY and PHF over the next few hours. LIFR or VLIFR conditions become likely at all but RIC after 06z tonight. Guidance at RIC is less aggressive but will show a period of IFR late tonight. Winds generally from the E 5-10 kt early this evening become calm to light and variable tonight. Easterly/onshore flow resumes by mid morning Tuesday.
Outlook: Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with prevailing VFR conditions.
MARINE
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
-Moderate rip current risk expected for the southern beaches on Tuesday.
- Generally quiet marine conditions continuing for much of the week.
High pressure continues to build into the local area this afternoon, which is pushing an area of low pressure further southeast away from our waters. Wind is generally E/NE at 8-12kt with a few gusts to 15kts. Afternoon seas are 3-4ft across the north with 4-5ft along the southern coastal waters. Waves in the Bay remain around 1-2ft.
With relatively benign conditions expected on the marine side for most of the week, expect seas and waves to persist at the aforementioned levels, with perhaps the southern seas coming down to 3-4ft as well. The high pressure will slide offshore later this week ahead of an incoming frontal system turning the winds more SSW, but they should remain below SCA thresholds. The cold front will settle into the region Thursday and into the weekend bringing a chance of scattered showers and storms each day.
A high risk of rip currents continues for the rest of the day for the southern beaches, with a moderate risk for the northern beaches. Expecting the rip forecast for tomorrow to "come down" to moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually subside.
HYDROLOGY
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...
Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this afternoon. The river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday morning before falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from the weekend may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...
Another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected to occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. Thus, a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for these locations, as well as the upper James area, for tonight's high tide cycle. A similar pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated over the next several days.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 814 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 810 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Lows in the low-mid 50s tonight with fog formation again possible across the entire forecast area
High pressure is settling in over the area this evening. Aloft, a trough is pushing offshore and a strong ridge is building in behind it. Clouds have cleared for all but the Eastern Shore and areas near the coast from Norfolk southward into NE NC.
Overnight, temps will cool into the low-mid 50s. Expecting cloud cover to build back in from the east overnight, but should remain scattered over the western half of the area. Fog formation is also expected across the entire area overnight.
Latest guidance shows increasing potential for widespread areas of fog with visibility dropping to 1/2 mile or less late tonight. Will continue to monitor these trends and a Dense Fog Advisory or Special Weather Statement are possible once again overnight through 8-10am.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...
Key Message:
- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend.
- An approaching cold front brings chances showers and thunderstorms Thursday, a few of which could be strong to severe.
High pressure remains in place over the area through mid-week and gradually shifts to the south. The ridge aloft will continue to build through early Wed, then gets suppressed Wed into Thurs. Skies will be mostly clear Tue and Wed. A cold front approaches from the NW on Thurs. Based on 12z global guidance, the front looks to enter the local area late evening Thurs. Northwestern portions of the area should see precip in the late afternoon, then showers/storms move into the remainder of the area later that evening. Thunder seems likely (especially in the afternoon/evening) given sufficient instability from day-time heating. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper level flow with the trough passing to to our N.
Temperatures follow a warming trend through the week. Highs on Tues will be in the low 80s in the piedmont, upper 70s in the E, and upper 60s-low 70s immediately at the coast courtesy of onshore flow.
Highs on Wed warm into the upper 80s inland and low-mid 80s immediately along the coast. Cannot rule out a few places touching 90. Hot again on Thurs with highs in the mid-80s to around 90. Lows Tues night in the upper 50s, mid-60s Wed and Thurs night.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend.
A lot of uncertainty in the long term, but the pattern looks to be generally unsettled. Thursday night's cold front will likely stall out over or near the local area due to a weak flow aloft. This will create daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and into early next week, mostly in the afternoon and evenings. Due to the uncertainty, stuck close to the PoPs from the blended guidance. However, capped PoPs at Chnc and did some light editing to reflect the diurnal nature. Regarding temps, Friday has trended warmer with highs now getting into the mid-80s most places and low 80s on the Eastern Shore. Likely a bit cooler on Sat and Sun with temps in the upper 70s-around 80 across the N and up to the mid- 80s in the far south. Back to the low-mid 80s everywhere W of the bay on Mon (upper 70s on Eastern Shore). Lows will be in the low-mid 60s through this period.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 810 PM EDT Monday...
High pressure is settling into the area this evening. Skies have cleared over most of the area but MVFR/IFR CIGs are noted near the immediate coast. ECG and ORF have already fallen into IFR territory and are expected to remain there through mid morning or so. Expect IFR conditions to spread west toward SBY and PHF over the next few hours. LIFR or VLIFR conditions become likely at all but RIC after 06z tonight. Guidance at RIC is less aggressive but will show a period of IFR late tonight. Winds generally from the E 5-10 kt early this evening become calm to light and variable tonight. Easterly/onshore flow resumes by mid morning Tuesday.
Outlook: Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with prevailing VFR conditions.
MARINE
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
-Moderate rip current risk expected for the southern beaches on Tuesday.
- Generally quiet marine conditions continuing for much of the week.
High pressure continues to build into the local area this afternoon, which is pushing an area of low pressure further southeast away from our waters. Wind is generally E/NE at 8-12kt with a few gusts to 15kts. Afternoon seas are 3-4ft across the north with 4-5ft along the southern coastal waters. Waves in the Bay remain around 1-2ft.
With relatively benign conditions expected on the marine side for most of the week, expect seas and waves to persist at the aforementioned levels, with perhaps the southern seas coming down to 3-4ft as well. The high pressure will slide offshore later this week ahead of an incoming frontal system turning the winds more SSW, but they should remain below SCA thresholds. The cold front will settle into the region Thursday and into the weekend bringing a chance of scattered showers and storms each day.
A high risk of rip currents continues for the rest of the day for the southern beaches, with a moderate risk for the northern beaches. Expecting the rip forecast for tomorrow to "come down" to moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually subside.
HYDROLOGY
As of 340 PM EDT Monday...
Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River, with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this afternoon. The river will likely stay in flood into Tuesday morning before falling below flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from the weekend may cause localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should stay below action stage.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...
Another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected to occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. Thus, a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for these locations, as well as the upper James area, for tonight's high tide cycle. A similar pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will remain elevated over the next several days.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 5 mi | 46 min | S 9.9G | |||||
| LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA | 14 mi | 46 min | S 8.9G | 64°F | 71°F | 30.04 | ||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 15 mi | 46 min | SE 5.1G | 66°F | 68°F | 30.03 | ||
| 44042 - Potomac, MD | 18 mi | 40 min | SSE 14G | 62°F | 67°F | 1 ft | ||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 22 mi | 46 min | E 7G | 66°F | 30.03 | |||
| NCDV2 | 25 mi | 46 min | 0G | 67°F | 73°F | 30.00 | ||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 30 mi | 40 min | SSE 7.8G | 64°F | 68°F | 0 ft | ||
| BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD | 32 mi | 46 min | SSE 8.9G | 64°F | 69°F | 30.04 | ||
| CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD | 42 mi | 46 min | S 4.1G | 65°F | 68°F | 30.04 | ||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 44 mi | 76 min | 0 | 62°F | 30.04 | 61°F | ||
| 44058 - Stingray Point, VA | 45 mi | 40 min | S 9.7G | 60°F | 68°F | 1 ft |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KNUI WEBSTER NOLF,MD | 11 sm | 52 min | SE 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 63°F | 94% | 30.03 | |
| KNHK PATUXENT RIVER NAS/TRAPNELL FIELD/,MD | 15 sm | 53 min | ESE 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 68°F | 63°F | 83% | 30.03 | |
| KXSA TAPPAHANNOCKESSEX COUNTY,VA | 24 sm | 10 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 59°F | 59°F | 100% | 30.04 |
Coles Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:46 AM EDT 2.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:05 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT 0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:14 PM EDT 1.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:39 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:40 PM EDT 0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:46 AM EDT 2.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:05 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 05:51 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT 0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:14 PM EDT 1.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:39 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 06:40 PM EDT 0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Coles Point, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2 |
| 1 am |
| 2.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.9 |
| 3 am |
| 1.5 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.7 |
Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315° true
Ebb direction 145° true
Mon -- 12:35 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:04 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:30 AM EDT -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:57 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:17 AM EDT 0.26 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:12 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:02 PM EDT -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:38 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 07:40 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:17 PM EDT 0.63 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for MapFlood direction 315° true
Ebb direction 145° true
Mon -- 12:35 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:04 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 04:30 AM EDT -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:50 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 08:57 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:17 AM EDT 0.26 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:12 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:02 PM EDT -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:38 PM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 07:40 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 10:17 PM EDT 0.63 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| -0.1 |
| 2 am |
| -0.5 |
| 3 am |
| -0.7 |
| 4 am |
| -0.8 |
| 5 am |
| -0.8 |
| 6 am |
| -0.7 |
| 7 am |
| -0.5 |
| 8 am |
| -0.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0 |
| 10 am |
| 0.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 0 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Dover AFB, DE,
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