Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 4:09 AM   Moonset 5:53 PM

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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 834 Pm Pdt Mon May 6 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 am pdt Tuesday through late Tuesday night - .
Today - W winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds and W 2 to 4 ft at 19 seconds. Tonight - NW winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds. Tue - NW winds 20 to 30 knots. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 14 seconds. Tue night - NW winds 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. Wind waves 6 to 8 ft. NW swell 7 to 9 ft at 13 seconds and sw up to 2 ft at 18 seconds. Wed - NW winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. NW swell 8 to 10 ft at 12 seconds and S up to 2 ft at 17 seconds. Wed night - N winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 10 to 12 ft at 12 seconds and S up to 2 ft at 17 seconds. Thu - N winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft and S up to 2 ft. Fri - W winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft and S around 2 ft.

PZZ500 834 Pm Pdt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - .
dry weather to continue through next weekend. West to northwesterly winds will gradually transition northerly overnight tonight into Tuesday. As the high pressure system continues to build and move eastward, winds will strengthen starting Tuesday with gale force gusts Tuesday night through Wednesday night with the strongest gusts located along the big sur coast and northern outer coastal waters. Significant wave heights will build to heights to 15 to 16 feet by mid-week. Conditions will be extremely hazardous for all but the largest vessels Tuesday and Wednesday and extreme caution should be exercised during this time.

FXUS66 KMTR 070425 AAA AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Francisco CA 925 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

New UPDATE, MARINE

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 124 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

Seasonal temperatures to start the week with above normal temps expected by Wednesday onward. Warm to end the week with minor Heat Risk.

UPDATE
Issued at 909 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

Other than a few tweaks to the sky grids, the short term forecast is in good shape. Nighttime GOES imagery reveals that marine stratus has crept into western portions of the Bay Area and will gradually invade parts of the East Bay, Santa Clara Valley, Salinas Valley and Monterey Bay areas. The 00 UTC High Resolution Rapid Refresh and a blend of other short-term guidance has captured the evolution quite well and sky grids were updated to account for these trends. VWP and data from our evening sounding does suggest some potential for interior fog development across San Benito County, but I anticipate this to be confined to the most sheltered locations as 925mb winds still appear a bit elevated (10-15 knots) to prevent the PBL from decoupling completely. If winds are lighter than forecast, then the fog potential will increase substantially.

There are signals (40-60% probabilities of visibility below 1 mile) of a greater fog threat across marine zones adjacent to the Santa Cruz County and Monterey County shorelines this evening and the forecast mentions this in the worded products. The chance for fog across the land areas (e.g. SF Peninsula) diminish, though remain around 20%...so we'll have to monitor overnight. At this time, low level flow (again around 10-15 knots) should favor more in the way of low stratus than reduced visibility.

Otherwise, this week is shaping up to be rain-free, but warm.
We'll have more details on the late week heat later tonight/early Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 124 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

Another mostly clear day across the area with some high clouds streaming through and some shallow cumulus over terrain in a few of the coastal ranges. Similar to days previous, sufficient mid- level stability will prevent anything interesting from happening with the cumulus. Coming off of a chilly morning today, temperatures will be near seasonal averages the next couple of days, warming gradually. Really not much else to talk about in the short term, as it look like a very pleasant couple of days with little weather risk.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 124 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

By Wednesday, high temps will be above average with afternoon highs nearing 80 for inland areas. This trend will continue into the weekend. Thursday and Friday look to be the warmest days where inland locations could see their first 90 degrees of the year.
Most other will see temps in the 80s, while coastal locations will be in the 70s. A bit of uncertainty in regard to the high temp forecast for areas near the coast and bay shoreline, including San Francisco. It appears we'll have a moderate push of offshore winds for inland areas late Wednesday into Thursday morning. We aren't expecting these onshore winds to completely erode the marine layer like some strong events we see in the fall, but they could prove to make Thursday's high temp forecast difficult, especially for SF and the east and north bay shorelines. Current forecast for these areas Thursday is the upper 70s to lower 80s, but these temps may need to be nudged upwards in the event we expect the offshore component to last longer into Thursday. In regard to the offshore winds, it appears to be a fairly short event (<1 day), and any drying that occurs is not expected to reach critical levels.
Inland areas will see very limited RH recovery going into Thursday, but should bounce back by Friday morning and into the weekend as winds return to onshore. Guidance brings temps down slightly into the weekend, but still above normal. All in all should be a very nice second half of the week for everyone. That being said, folks should still exercise caution when enjoying time outdoors as this swing from below normal to above normal temperatures can catch people off guard. Plan to pack some extra water and sun protection if you're planning to spend time outdoors. And the most important preparation if you're going to the coast or relaxing poolside...SUNSCREEN!!!

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 442 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR through the TAF period for all terminals. Some models suggest MVFR ceilings for some terminals overnight, but had low confidence to include in TAFs at this moment and was indicated with a SCT group. Breezy to strong W/NW will diminish overnight and rebuild to breezy by Tuesday afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Breezy westerly winds will becoming moderate overnight but will rebuild to breezy by Tuesday afternoon. Models do hint at MVFR cigs building this evening into the morning. With low confidence and model disagreement, a SCT group was placed in TAFs to maintain VFR conditions at this moment.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...High confidence that VFR will persist through the evening, but models hint at MVFR conditions tonight into the morning. With low to moderate confidence that stratus will build to MVFR levels, a SCT group was placed to hint at the possibility of low CIGs , and will continue to monitor for any needed amendments.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 909 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024

Dry weather to continue through next weekend. West to northwesterly winds will gradually transition northerly overnight tonight into Tuesday. As the high pressure system continues to build and move eastward, winds will strengthen starting Tuesday with gale force gusts Tuesday night through Wednesday night with the strongest gusts located along the Big Sur Coast and northern outer coastal waters. Significant wave heights will build to heights to 15 to 16 feet by mid-week. Conditions will be extremely hazardous for all but the largest vessels Tuesday and Wednesday and extreme caution should be exercised during this time.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

Gale Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

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Blakes Landing
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Mon -- 05:09 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:03 AM PDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:58 AM PDT     4.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:48 PM PDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:52 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:08 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:34 PM PDT     5.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Blakes Landing, Tomales Bay, California, Tide feet

Point Reyes
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:04 AM PDT     -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:09 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:46 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:09 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:47 AM PDT     1.29 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:57 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:31 PM PDT     -1.05 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:48 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:53 PM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:08 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:41 PM PDT     1.10 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:33 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Reyes, California Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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