Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chance, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 4:50PM Friday November 16, 2018 2:53 PM EST (19:53 UTC) Moonrise 1:39PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 1237 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
This afternoon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until late afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 1237 Pm Est Fri Nov 16 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build in from the ohio valley today through Saturday. High pressure will move offshore Sunday and a weak cold front may pass through early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chance, MD
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location: 38.22, -76.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 161945
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
245 pm est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure over new england will accelerate away from the area
through tonight. High pressure resumes control behind the
departing low and remains over the region through the weekend
and into next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 245 pm Friday...

latest upper level analysis reveals strong upper level
shortwave in the process of ejecting NE across coastal new
england. This feature offshore of the E ma coast will
accelerate off to the northeast to atlantic canada tonight, with
the associated (and still deepening) potent sfc low reaching
newfoundland labrador by late tonight. Resultant w-sw downslope
flow has allowed for a mainly sunny, breezy and cool fall
afternoon across the region. Temperatures at 20z mainly in the
upper 40s to mid 50s across the area.

Continued mainly clear tonight. Surface high pressure currently
over the mid-south gulf coast regions will build across the
region tonight into Saturday, with winds slowly diminishing this
evening. Clear sky, drying airmass and diminishing winds should
allow for quickly falling temps this evening. Look for early
morning lows in the 30s inland (some upper 20s far nw) to low
40s for coastal SE va NE nc early Saturday morning.

Short term Saturday through Monday
As of 245 pm est Friday...

sensible weather over the weekend into early next week
characterized by gradually moderating temperatures, as
previously referenced sfc high pressure builds overhead.

Progressive, quasi-zonal will bring a quiet, pleasant weekend.

Despite the modest warm up, temperatures remain at or just
below climo norms. Highs in the 50s to near 60 each day. Early
morning lows ranging through the 30s to near 40.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
As of 345 pm est Thursday...

much quieter weather still on track for much of next week. A weak
upper-level shortwave approaches the area late Sunday-Monday
(coupled with a sfc cold front). Not much in the way of rain
expected with the fropa, but have slight chc pops for coastal NE nc
from 06-18z mon. Looks like the bulk of the rain will fall well
offshore after the front crosses the CWA by Mon aftn. Behind the
front, sfc high pressure settles just west of the region Mon night-
tue. However, am only expecting temperatures to drop to slightly
below average. A weak shortwave caught in NW flow aloft is progged
to swing through the mid-atlantic on Wed (coupled with another cold
front). However, moisture will be lacking across the area, so this
will be another (mainly) dry fropa. Canadian high pressure then
settles over the region on Wed night-thu am before moving offshore
by the end of the day on thu.

The cooler air lags behind the front a bit, so highs on Mon will
still be in the 50s to near 60. Cooler on Tue wed, with highs in the
upper 40s to near 50 north mid 50s south. Warming back up into the
50s area-wide on thu. Lows Monday night in the low-mid 30s
inland around 40 in coastal SE va-ne nc. Cooler on both Tuesday and
Wednesday night with lows ranging from near 30 NW to the mid-upper
30s se.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
As of 245 pm est Friday...

vfr conditions across area terminals ATTM will prevail through
the 18z TAF period... And through the day Saturday as high
pressure builds across the southeast and mid-atlantic region.

Outlook: high pressure prevails for the latter half of the
weekend into next week with continuedVFR conditions expected.

Marine
As of 450 am est Friday...

low pressure exiting the region this morning. Strong pressure
rises in wake of departing low means strong wsw winds up to
gale force being observed across parts of the marine domain.

Winds have diminished enough to replace gales with SCA for all
but northern 2 3 of the coastal waters. Winds over the rivers
will diminish below SCA by late morning, then for the chesapeake
bay by mid evening tonight. Seas will follow suit by subsiding
below 5 feet tonight.

Calmer conditions return for the weekend as high pressure
settles back over the region.

Hydrology
As of 1150 am est Friday...

river flood warnings remain in effect for stony creek on the
nottoway, and mattoax on the appomattox, lawrenceville on the
meherrin and sebrell on the nottoway. Palmyra on the rivanna.

Richmond westham on the james.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
anz630>632-634-656-658.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz638.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Saturday for anz650-652-
654.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mam
long term... Eri
aviation... Mam
marine... 99
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 0 mi35 min W 9.9 G 12 49°F 49°F1012.7 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 20 mi33 min W 14 G 16 51°F 1011.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi35 min NW 11 G 16 50°F 1012.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 23 mi35 min WSW 11 G 15 52°F 53°F1012.1 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 25 mi41 min 50°F 50°F1011.8 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 27 mi41 min W 12 G 15 51°F 48°F1012.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 27 mi41 min WNW 8.9 G 11
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 31 mi33 min 51°F 1012.8 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 46 mi35 min W 5.1 G 11 53°F 51°F1012.5 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 47 mi33 min WNW 14 G 18 53°F 1014.2 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 47 mi35 min WSW 13 G 16 1013.5 hPa
44089 49 mi53 min 59°F4 ft

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD20 mi2 hrsW 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy49°F37°F64%1012.2 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD21 mi60 minW 810.00 miFair52°F39°F61%1012.1 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD22 mi73 minWSW 7 G 1510.00 miFair50°F35°F58%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN10N7N5N7NE9NE7NE9NE13NE11NE12NE13NE10
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2 days agoNW15NW16
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NW17N14NW8W7W7W8NW12NW11N13N14NW17NW13N13N14NW12N14NW12NW9N11

Tide / Current Tables for Hooper Strait Light, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Hooper Strait Light
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:07 AM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:05 AM EST     1.54 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:15 PM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:19 PM EST     1.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.40.50.711.21.51.51.51.31.10.80.60.50.50.711.31.51.71.61.51.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:29 AM EST     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:39 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:29 AM EST     0.44 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 01:13 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:04 PM EST     -0.33 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:32 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:22 PM EST     0.41 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.20.10.30.40.40.30.20-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.10.10.30.40.40.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.