Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Royal, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 7:51PM Thursday August 24, 2017 1:01 AM EDT (05:01 UTC) Moonrise 8:26AMMoonset 8:45PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1031 Pm Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 am edt Thursday through Thursday morning...
Rest of tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers late this evening.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt until late afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 1031 Pm Edt Wed Aug 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will drop to the south of the waters tonight. High pressure centered over new england will extend south into the area for Thursday through Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Royal, VA
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location: 38.22, -77.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 240038
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
838 pm edt Wed aug 23 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will settle into southeast virginia tonight. An upper
level trough will sweep southeastward Thursday and push the
front offshore Thursday night. High pressure will build north of
the area through the weekend and remain in control early next
week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
A surface cold front remains off to our south across
southeastern virginia. However... An inverted trough does extend
north from southern virginia into central virginia. A weak
upper-level disturbance is also passing through central virginia
and southern maryland this evening. A couple showers cannot be
ruled out across these areas through late this evening.

Elsewhere... It will remain dry and noticeably cooler less humid.

High pressure will continue to build toward the area from the
great lakes and ohio valley. This will continue to push the
front south overnight. A northerly flow will allow for cooler
and less humid conditions compared to recent nights. Could see a
sct bkn deck of clouds underneath the subsidence inversion
around 5kft. Therefore... Will carry a partly to mostly cloudy
sky especially near and east of the blue ridge mountains.

Min temps will range from the lower to middle 50s in the potomac
highlands to the middle 60s near downtown washington and
baltimore into the virginia piedmont and southern maryland.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Friday night
High pressure will remain well to the northwest on Thursday with
cyclonic flow aloft. A well defined trough will pass through the
area during the late afternoon and evening. At a minimum, this
will lead to increased cloud cover. Better lift and moisture
(although fairly meager in depth) will be across northern
portions of the area. Have introduced a slight chance of showers
during this time. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s,
with overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Some patchy fog is
possible in western valleys.

Afterward, sprawling high pressure will remain in control
through Friday night, although its eastward progress will be
limited to the great lakes region. Thus the local area will
remain in cold to neutral advection. There will be an early
fall feel to the air, with temperatures about 5 degrees below
normal and dew points in the 50s. Some models try to generate
some QPF in the mountains Friday afternoon and evening with a
slight upslope wind component, but am thinking the atmosphere
will be too dry to support precipitation and have thus left the
forecast dry.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
An upper-level trough will remain overhead for Saturday and Sunday
while surface high pressure remains centered over new england. A
north to northeast flow around the high will usher in unusually cool
conditions for this time of year... Making it feel more like late
september instead of late august. A couple showers cannot be ruled
out due to upper-level disturbances associated with the longwave
upper trough overhead... But most of the time will be dry and any
precipitation amounts will be light.

The upper-level trough will slide off to the east Monday and another
upper-level disturbance may approach Tuesday. High pressure will
remain centered over new england... Bringing more cool
conditions.

Aviation 01z Thursday through Monday
An isolated shower near kcho is possible through late this
evening.

High pressure remains to the northwest tonight through Friday
night. This will result inVFR conditions and light northerly
winds. There's a slight chance of a shower Thursday afternoon
and evening with an upper disturbance. Nocturnal fog is
questionable since the center of the high won't be overhead.

High pressure will remain centered over new england Saturday
through Monday. A north to northeast flow is expected most of
the time along withVFR conditions. An isolated shower cannot be
ruled out Saturday or Sunday... Especially across kmrb and kcho.

Even for these areas... Much of the time will likely be dry.

Marine
The boundary will continue to move south of the waters tonight
and a pressure surge is expected as high pressure approaches
from the northwest. Winds will increase a bit, especially over
the open waters of the chesapeake bay and middle lower tidal
potomac river where the gradient will be tighter. Have issued a
small craft advisory for this area from 2 am until noon
Thursday, although it will be marginal with wind gusts around
18 to 20 knots.

The high should be close enough by that winds will remain below
sca levels from Thursday night through Friday night, out of a
north to northeast direction.

High pressure will remain centered over new england for
Saturday through Monday... And a north to northeast flow is expected.

Winds may come close to SCA criteria Saturday night and Sunday... But
the better chance for SCA conditions will be Sunday night and Monday
when the gradient strengthens a bit.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 am to noon edt Thursday for
anz531>534-536-537-539>541-543.

Synopsis... Ads
near term... Bjl ads
short term... Ads
long term... Bjl
aviation... Bjl ads
marine... Bjl ads


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 15 mi49 min N 1 G 1.9 70°F 82°F1012 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 40 mi43 min NNE 6 G 7
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 44 mi49 min NNW 5.1 G 5.1 74°F 82°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi43 min NE 5.1 G 7 77°F 82°F1012.3 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi43 min W 1 G 1.9 77°F 83°F1012.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 49 mi151 min Calm 67°F 1012 hPa66°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 49 mi43 min NE 8.9 G 11 77°F 1013.1 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA10 mi66 minN 010.00 miOvercast71°F70°F100%1013.2 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA15 mi66 minWNW 57.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F67°F100%1014.9 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA20 mi65 minNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F71°F97%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from EZF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N6N7N3N6CalmS4SE4SE5SE3SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW5
1 day agoS3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmS3SW4S5SW8SW11
G15
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmSE3S4S9S6S7S4S10
G15
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E4SE4SE3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:02 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:20 AM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:24 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:45 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:46 PM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.91.30.70.30.10.41.22.22.93.33.22.72.11.40.90.40.10.10.81.82.63.13.22.9

Tide / Current Tables for Port Royal, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Port Royal
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:32 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:05 AM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:53 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:30 PM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 09:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.40.10.10.51.11.72.12.32.21.81.30.80.50.200.30.81.522.22.21.91.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.