Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Royal, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:54PM Thursday November 22, 2018 6:12 AM EST (11:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:54PMMoonset 6:01AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 336 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..N winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain or a chance of sleet.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the day.
ANZ500 336 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Strong canadian high pressure will build over the waters through Friday before a storm system develops along the coast and moves northward Saturday. High pressure will briefly return Sunday before another system moves in Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday and Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Royal, VA
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location: 38.22, -77.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 220916
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
416 am est Thu nov 22 2018

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure will slide southeast across the region
through Friday. A storm system will then move northeast across
the region on Saturday. High pressure will briefly return Sunday
before another storm system arrives for Monday. High pressure
will return once again by the middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
Arctic boundary was slow to cross the region overnight, but
colder air is slowly bleeding into the region on a gusty
northwest to north wind, and this will continue through the day.

That having been said, with midnight temps in the low 40s at
both dca and bwi, stat-wise this thanksgiving won't go down as
anything too unusual, even though it will still feel bitterly
cold with wind chills in the 20s all day long. As the high
builds overhead later today and tonight, winds will relax, and
with very dry air in place, most areas outside of the cities
will radiate down into the teens, making it the coldest night so
far this year - the cities will likely stay in the 20s, however.

With the wind dropping off, the wind chill will be less of a
factor tonight.

A streamer of clouds presently exists over the central portion
of the cwa, but expect this to gradually break up as we head
into the daylight period today. With the high in overall
control, skies should be clear to partly cloudy for the bulk of
today and tonight, with no chance of precipitation.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
High pressure quickly slides into the atlantic later Friday and
Friday night, with the return flow on the back side allowing
some warm advection to develop. This should lead to temperatures
rising back above freezing in most areas, though it will
probably stayin the 30s.

The next system moving in from the southwest still looks to be
quite wet, but its progress appears a bit slower once again. At
this point, precip may not arrive in the metro area until
southeast winds have helped temps to rise into the 40s on
Saturday, by which point there should be no threat of anything
except a stray sleet pellet due to lingering dry air. Inland,
and particularly west of the blue ridge catoctins, the same
cannot be said. The precip will arrive earlier, and the warm
advection will be delayed by a weak wedge, so freezing rain and
sleet are much more likely near and west of the blue
ridge catoctins. That said, the strong southerly flow aloft will
be making a strong attempt to mix out the lingering low level
cold, and right now we expect all locales to rise above freezing
by mid afternoon. That having been said, potential for ice is
high, although the heaviest precip looks to arrive after temps
rise above freezing. Thus, maintain freezing rain sleet in
forecast and it looks likely that we will need winter weather
advisories for this area late Friday night into Saturday. Anyone
with travel plans Saturday should keep well aware of the latest
forecast.

The system which will ultimately help scour out the cold after a
bout of ice inland will also bring heavy rain, thanks to a
particularly good setup with a negatively tilted trough and
strong southeast fetch off the ocean. The saving grace is that
it will be moving relatively fast, so expect the heavy rain to
be rather brief. Still, it has been quite wet already this month
(and year) so flooding may be a concern. The wpc has placed the
region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

The storm slides northeast away from us on Saturday night, with
rain tapering off in the evening. Temps should stay above
freezing with some lingering clouds.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will bring drier
conditions to the region Sunday and Sunday evening.

Temperatures Sunday will be near normal in the 50s under partly
sunny skies.

Sunday night, low pressure will approach the lower great lakes
with an upper trough nearing the ohio valley. This low will
stretch a frontal boundary toward the region with precipitation
knocking on the doorstep late Sunday night and early Monday
morning. With forecast lows in the low to middle 30s along the
allegheny front, have kept a mention of rain snow, with
precipitation further east remaining as rain. The bulk of the
precipitation will overspread the area Monday morning and
continue through Monday afternoon. GFS is a bit more progressive
and develops low pressure off the jersey coast Monday
afternoon, which brings an end to the rain by the early
afternoon hours. The ECMWF lingers the rain into Monday evening
and slows the development of the low off the coast. Will go with
a blend and maintain slight chance pops into Monday evening.

Upslope snow showers likely Monday night as colder air filters
into the region and winds remain gusty out of the west northwest
in the wake of the exiting low pressure to the northeast.

Upslope snow showers will continue into Tuesday morning before
waning. An upper level and surface low will linger over the
northeast into Wednesday, as shortwave energy swings across the
mid atlantic on Wednesday. This will result in another bout of
upslope snow showers along the allegheny front. The persistent
and gusty northwest flow will promote continued cold air
advection over the region as the low remains situated to our
north. As a result, temperatures will run around 10 degrees
below normal Tuesday through Wednesday.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
Vfr thru Friday night all terminals. Gusty north to northwest
wind today with gusts up to 25 knots dies off later this
afternoon, with winds generally 10 knots or less later tonight
thru Friday night.

Cigs and vis likely drop to ifr or maybe even lifr later
Saturday as storm system brings a burst of heavy precipitation
with it. Most of the region should be rain, though cho and mrb,
possibly also iad, could start as fzra pl. Low vis with the
heavy precip should end early in the evening, though low cigs
could linger into the overnight Saturday night.

High pressure and dry conditions expected over the terminals on
Sunday withVFR conditions prevailing. Light northwest winds
will back out of the south by Sunday evening. Low pressure will
near the great lakes region Sunday night with rain showers
reaching the terminals Monday morning and persisting through the
day with subVFR conditions expected. A frontal boundary will
cross the terminals Monday afternoon and evening, ushering in
gusty west to northwest winds in its wake with a return toVFR
conditions Monday night.

Marine
Sca for all waters today with cold advection behind the
overnight cold front. North to northwest winds start dying off
this evening and looks like we are mostly below SCA by midnight.

Winds mostly below SCA Friday and Friday night, but strong
system moving in Saturday may push south to southeast winds back
up to SCA levels in rain, which may be heavy at times later in
the day into early evening. Rain and wind likely diminishes
later Saturday night.

High pressure will build over the waters during the day on
Sunday and persist into the Sunday evening with lighter winds
and sub SCA conditions favored. Low pressure will approach from
the west late Sunday night, tightening the gradient with
increasing southerly breezes, thus a potential for SCA gusts
over portions of the waters will exist. SCA conditions likely
Monday and Monday night as low pressure moves through the waters
with gusty west northwest breezes persisting in its wake.

Climate
While today will be quite cold, the cold was slow to arrive
overnight, and both dc and baltimore were still in the 40s at
midnight. Thus, for stat keeping, this thanksgiving will only be
the coldest since 2013.

Rainfall totals continue to creep upward, with baltimore setting
the annual record already. Here are the current rankings for
wettest year on record (through november 18th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.09 inches (1878)
4. 58.58 inches (2018)
5. 58.17 inches (1886)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 63.18 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
3. 62.35 inches (1889)
4. 58.98 inches (1979)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 59.17 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
4. 58.09 inches (1996)
5. 55.43 inches (1979)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for
anz530>532-535-536-538>542.

Small craft advisory until midnight est tonight for anz533-534-
537-543.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Bkf
aviation... Bkf rcm
marine... Bkf rcm
climate... Rcm lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 15 mi42 min N 2.9 G 4.1 36°F 48°F1027.9 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 40 mi48 min NNE 13 G 18
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 44 mi42 min NNW 11 G 14 37°F 51°F1028.2 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi42 min N 8 G 13 39°F 47°F1027.8 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi42 min N 6 G 13 34°F 46°F1029.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 49 mi102 min N 5.1 34°F 1028 hPa22°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 49 mi42 min N 16 G 25 36°F 1028.9 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA10 mi37 minN 510.00 miFair35°F26°F71%1028.4 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA15 mi17 minN 810.00 miFair34°F23°F65%1030.5 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA20 mi16 minNNE 1210.00 miFair35°F21°F57%1029.8 hPa

Wind History from EZF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW7SW6W7SW8W5W4W3N9
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1 day agoCalmCalmNW3N5NW7N5NW10
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NW5NW4NW9CalmN4NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmSE3CalmSW4CalmCalmCalmS5SE6SE4S5SE6S7S4S4S4SW9SW8SW7SW4SW6CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:24 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:38 AM EST     2.63 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:00 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:17 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:48 PM EST     3.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.10.61.42.22.62.62.31.71.10.50.1-0.100.51.52.42.932.82.21.610.5

Tide / Current Tables for Port Royal, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Port Royal
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:25 AM EST     1.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:00 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:48 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:35 PM EST     2.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:44 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.61.21.61.81.81.51.10.60.20-0.10.10.61.31.82.12.11.91.410.60.20

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.