Friday, February15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Royal, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 5:49PM Friday February 15, 2019 10:39 PM EST (03:39 UTC) Moonrise 1:28PMMoonset 3:24AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1009 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Saturday...
Rest of tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain or snow with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain or snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain or snow through the night.
Wed..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
ANZ500 1009 Pm Est Fri Feb 15 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will move south of the waters tonight. Low pressure will track along the boundary to our south on Saturday. High pressure will briefly return Saturday night, but low pressure will pass by to the west Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure will return early next week before stronger low pressure possibly impacts the waters during the middle portion of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Royal, VA
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location: 38.22, -77.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 160200
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
900 pm est Fri feb 15 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will pass through the area this evening. Low
pressure will track along the boundary, passing by to our south
Saturday. High pressure will briefly build to our Saturday night
and low pressure will pass through late Sunday into Sunday
night. High pressure will build to our north early next week.

Stronger low pressure may impact the area during the middle
portion of next week.

Near term through Saturday
A cold front is crossing the area this evening, extending from
baltimore washington southwestward toward western nc based on 9
pm observations. The front is moving through dry, so will be
removing pops for the remainder of the evening. There is a
decent surge of westerly winds behind the front, with 20-30 mph
gusts common so far in its wake. These gusts should decrease
later tonight as the pressure rises taper. Based on latest
guidance and surface trends, the going temperature forecast may
fall off too steeply tonight, especially if we can maintain a
any breeze. Will be bumping up low temperatures a bit.

It looks like the chance of precipitation will begin increasing
after 2-4 am in central virginia ahead of the low pressure
system currently in the lower mississippi. That low will track
through the gulf coast states this evening and into north
carolina by Saturday morning. The low will pass by to our south
Saturday morning into the midday hours before moving offshore
later Saturday afternoon. The track of this system has shifted
to the south, so that means that the most likely scenario is for
northern and central areas to be dry, including washington and
baltimore. However, a period of snow or rain snow mix is
expected across central virginia and perhaps into southern
maryland late tonight through midday Saturday. Across these
areas, any snow accumulation is most likely to be light and
confined to grassy surfaces with temperatures near or above
freezing for most of the time. However, accumulating snow is
more likely in the mountains, especially across the central blue
ridge mountains near interstate 64. A winter weather advisory
is in effect for this area for 1-2". Recent model runs even put
this much snow in doubt, but will not make any changes to the
headline at this time.

Dry conditions will return across the entire area later Saturday
afternoon, but it will be seasonably chilly with highs in the
upper 30s to lower 40s for most locations.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
High pressure will briefly build toward the area from the north
Saturday night, bringing dry and cold conditions. Low pressure
is expected to track through the ohio valley Sunday before
passing through our area Sunday evening. Warm advection ahead of
the low will cause more clouds and the likelihood for light
precipitation sometime later Sunday morning or afternoon, into
Sunday evening. With very dry air in place to start, there will
likely be enough of a cooling affect for in situ cold air
damming. This means that a light wintry mix is possible,
especially north and west of interstate 95. Light snow or ice
accumulations from snow sleet and freezing rain are most likely
across the climatologically favored areas (northern maryland and
near west of the blue ridge and catoctin mountains).

The low will move away from the area overnight Sunday and drier
condtions should gradually return. Lows will be in the lower to
middle 30s for most locations.

Long term Monday through Friday
High pressure will build to our northwest on Monday.

Northwesterly winds will advect cooler temperatures into the
area. Other than a few upslope snow showers along the allegheny
front, conditions are expected to stay dry. High temperatures
will reach into the 40s following morning lows in the low 30s.

High pressure will continue to build eastward to our north on
Friday. Meanwhile, a positively tilted trough will dig southward
across the four corners region. Downstream of the trough, the
pattern will amplify a bit, with heights rising across south-
central and southeastern portions of the country. As the
trough ejects out from the desert southwest, return flow will
develop at low levels in response. With strong warm air
advection occurring at lower levels, precipitation will break
out across the southern us during the day Tuesday. This
precipitation will progress off to the northeast along with the
upper level trough, likely reaching our area Tuesday night. With
high pressure in place to our north, cold air may initially be
locked in at low levels. As a result, some wintry precipitation
may be possible. It's far too early to focus in on exact timing
and precipitation types, but with temperatures initially around
freezing both at the surface and aloft, snow, sleet, freezing
rain and rain are all within the realm of possibility.

Chances for precipitation will extend into Wednesday as
the weakening parent low tracks into the ohio valley and a weak
coastal low forms off the carolina coast. Temperatures will warm
aloft on Wednesday, but there is at least some potential for a
wedge of cold air to remain locked in at the surface between
the two areas of low pressure. As a result, some wintry precip
can't be ruled out during the day Wednesday, although snow
appears less likely with temperatures warming aloft. Model
guidance diverges by Thursday. The 12z GFS builds a weak area of
high pressure in, allowing conditions to dry out, while the 00z
euro moves another wave of low pressure overhead, leading to
continued chances for precipitation. High pressure should return
late next week.

Aviation 02z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr conditions should prevail at most terminals through
Saturday night. Winds are shifting to the northwest behind a
cold front this evening. Some gusts of 20-25 kt are possible in
its wake. Low pressure will be passing to the south late tonight
into Saturday. A period of snow or rain snow mix is possible
Saturday morning near kcho, but other terminals should remain
dry. If precipitation occurs, ceilings and visibility could drop
into the MVFR category, but this outcome is looking
increasingly unlikely. Clearing skies are expected by Saturday
afternoon.

Low pressure will pass by to the west later Sunday into Sunday
night, bringing the likelihood for rain or a wintry mix. Sub-vfr
conditions are possible during this time.

Vfr conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday. Conditions will
likely deteriorate to sub-vfr Tuesday night into Wednesday as a
system approaches from the southwest.

Marine
Winds will shift from southwest to west this evening as a cold
front crosses the waters, then eventually become northerly by
Saturday morning. Since 20-25 kt wind gusts have been common in
the wake of the frontal passage over land, have re-issued the
small craft advisory for the upper and middle potomac river. So
the advisory will be in effect for all waters through 6 am,
though the winds will likely start subsiding late tonight. Winds
will be last to subside over the middle bay and lower potomac,
where the advisory continues until 10 am. Weak low pressure will
pass by to the south early Saturday, which could bring some
light rain or snow to the far southern maryland waters.

High pressure will briefly build toward the waters later
Saturday and Saturday night before low pressure passes by to the
west later Sunday into Sunday night. The gradient should be weak
enough for winds to remain below SCA criteria for most of this
time.

Sca conditions appear likely on Monday with gusty northwesterly
flow in the wake of a departing area of low pressure. Winds
will lighten Monday night through Tuesday as high pressure
builds to our north.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... Winter weather advisory from 4 am to noon est Saturday for
vaz508.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Saturday for anz530-531-
535-536-538-539.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est Saturday for anz532>534-
537-540>543.

Synopsis... Bjl
near term... Bjl ads
short term... Bjl
long term... Kjp
aviation... Bjl ads kjp
marine... Bjl ads kjp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 15 mi45 min SW 5.1 G 5.1 57°F 42°F1006.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 40 mi45 min WSW 5.1 G 6
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 44 mi45 min SW 12 G 14 55°F 40°F1006.2 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi45 min WSW 8 G 9.9 60°F 42°F1006.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi45 min NW 7 G 11 56°F 41°F1007.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 49 mi129 min SSW 5.1 60°F 1005 hPa41°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 49 mi45 min WSW 12 G 16 60°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA10 mi64 minSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy60°F44°F56%1006.8 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA15 mi64 minNNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F43°F57%1008.5 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA20 mi43 minN 710.00 miPartly Cloudy58°F41°F53%1008 hPa

Wind History from EZF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW4CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmW6CalmCalmS6S8S11SE6SE4SE5E3SE7E4
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Tide / Current Tables for Corbins Neck, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Corbins Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:23 AM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:23 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:53 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:36 PM EST     2.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:47 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:15 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.522.32.21.91.40.90.40.10.10.20.71.52.32.72.72.521.40.90.50.20.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Port Royal, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Port Royal
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:10 AM EST     1.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:22 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:24 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:23 PM EST     1.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:46 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.61.61.30.90.50.20.10.10.30.71.31.71.91.91.71.30.90.50.30.10.10.20.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.