Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rock Point, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:37PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 3:14 PM EDT (19:14 UTC) Moonrise 12:20PMMoonset 12:21AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 132 Pm Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
This afternoon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 132 Pm Edt Wed Jun 20 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will track from west virginia east over the waters along a stalled front through tonight. The front will then drop farther south Thursday as high pressure briefly builds from the ohio valley to new england. The front will then return north as a warm front Friday night into Saturday as the high moves offshore and low pressure moves from the midwest to the great lakes. A small craft advisory may be needed for a portion of the waters Friday into Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rock Point CDP, MD
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location: 38.23, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 201720
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
120 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018

Synopsis
A weak frontal boundary drops into the area today, then settles
near the virginia north carolina border Thursday. The front
drops farther south into the carolinas Friday as high pressure
builds over the new england coast.

Near term through tonight
As of 1015 am edt Wednesday...

latest surface analysis shows a stationary front across the
region from NW to se. This front will be the focus for
thunderstorm development once again this afternoon. Latest cams
guidance suggests that thunderstorms will develop over the va
mountains piedmont and move into central va later this
afternoon. With the 500mb wind flow being slightly stronger than
yesterday, there is a slightly better chance for severe weather
compared to yesterday, but mostly we are still expecting just
localized heavy downpours with perhaps a severe wind gust. Have
mentioned locally heavy rain in the forecast for this
afternoon evening.

Otherwise, a weak short wave speed MAX over central oh will
allow for storm development over pa this afternoon. This
activity will spread across md and far northern va this evening
into the early overnight period as it weakens.

Overall, the forecast is in good shape, and only minor tweaks
were needed.

As of 400 am edt Wednesday...

a weak area of low pressure is located off the coast early this
morning, which is essentially a remnant from last evenings
convection, and a trailing boundary extends back into nc likely
an artifact of the old outflow boundary. Otherwise, a cold front
is located near the mason-dixon line evidenced mainly by a
dewpoint gradient. Temperatures early this morning are generally
in the low mid 70s. Stratus and patchy fog have developed
mainly over areas that received rain last evening. Stratus fog
should dissipate lift by 9 am with partly sunny conditions
prevailing through midday. The cold front will remain N of the
region today. Temperatures will remain above average, but not as
hot as yesterday, with highs ranging from the mid 80s over the
ern shore, to the upper 80s around 90f inland. Showers tstms are
expected to develop in vicinity of a pre-frontal lee-side
trough this aftn, initially over the NW piedmont and then
shifting into central SE va and NE nc later aftn into early
evening. Another round of showers and embedded tstms are
expected over the md ERN shore through the evening and early
overnight hours as the front approaches from the n. Remaining
warm and humid tonight with lows in the low mid 70s.

Short term Thursday through Friday
As of 400 am edt Wednesday...

the frontal boundary settles near the va nc border Thursday,
with the best chc of showers tstms shifting into central srn
va NE nc. Highs Thursday will be in the mid upper 80s (with
upper 70s around 80f for the immediate atlantic md coast). By
Friday, high pressure builds over coastal new england resulting
in onshore flow. 20 00z GFS nam ECMWF have become more
aggressive with respect to shortwave energy and upper divergence
aloft, and hence pops are now higher for Friday, mainly 20-40%
near the coast and 40- 60% farther inland. Mainly showers are
expected near the coast, with some embedded thunder possible
farther inland. The current guidance has a large spread with
high temperatures. For now, highs are forecast to be generally
in the upper 70s to mid 80s after morning lows in the upper 60s
to low 70s.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 300 pm edt Monday...

a warm frontal boundary is lifted across the region during the
day on Saturday as a low pressure system tracks from near the
great lakes to the northeast. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible during the day on Saturday as the boundary lifts north
across the region. Sunday will likely feature warmer and drier
conditions as the low pressure system tracks well north of the
region, putting the area in S SW flow. A shower or thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out during the day on Sunday as a surface trough
may continue to linger across the region. The attendant cold
front pushes southward across the region Sunday night into
Monday bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms.

The frontal boundary pushes south during the day on Monday with
lingering pops across southern portions of the region. High
pressure builds in north of the area Tuesday bringing drier and
cooler conditions to the region for early next week.

Highs on Saturday will range from the low 90s across the south
to the mid 80s to around 90f across the NE as the boundary
lifts north across the region. Sunday will likely be the warmest
day of the extended period with S SW flow and lower chances for
precipitation, highs will generally be in the lower 90s.

Cooling off early next week as a cold front passes through the
region, temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 80s
on Monday with even cooler conditions on Tuesday. Low
temperatures will generally be in the lower 70s Friday night
through Sunday night. Cooler low temperatures are anticipated
early next week.

Aviation 17z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 120 pm edt Wednesday...

a cold front approaches from the N this aftn, with s-se winds
at 5-8kt. Showers tstms will be possible over central SE va
primarily after 19z and into the evening.VFR conditions will
prevail through this evening with sct-bkn CU of 4-6kft, with
brief MVFR ifr conditions and locally strong wind gusts possible
in any tstms.

The cold front shifts farther S by Thursday settling near the
va nc border, with the best potential for aftn evening
showers tstms mainly over central SRN SE va and NE nc. High
pressure settles over new england Friday resulting in onshore
flow. Remaining unsettled as an upper level trough approaches
from the SW with a 20-40% chc of showers along the coast, and
40-60% farther inland. The potential for aftn evening
showers tstms will continue Saturday and Sunday.

Marine
As of 420 am edt Wednesday...

no headlines in the short term today through Thu night. Early
this morning, winds were northerly 10 kt or less over most of
the waters, except the NRN two coastal zns where winds were se
5-10 kt. Waves were 1 foot and seas 1 to 2 feet. Expect winds to
become NE or E 10 kt or less later this morning, then turn to
the SE this aftn. S winds 10 kt or less this evening, will
become W or NW by Thu morning, then N or NE Thu aftn into thu
evening, as a frontal boundary drops south of the region. Winds
become east and increase a bit late Thu night through fri. Seas
will build to 3 to 4 feet and waves 1 to 3 feet during fri.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz
near term... Ajz mrd
short term... Ajz mrd
long term... Ajb
aviation... Ajz jdm
marine... Tmg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 12 mi50 min ESE 2.9 G 2.9
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 16 mi44 min E 7 G 7 81°F 78°F1009.7 hPa
NCDV2 17 mi44 min E 4.1 G 5.1 84°F 80°F1009.2 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 21 mi44 min E 7 G 8 82°F 82°F1009.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi44 min S 5.1 G 6 80°F 1010.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 28 mi34 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 82°F 1011 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi44 min WSW 6 G 7 81°F 87°F1010.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi104 min SE 1.9 85°F 1010 hPa65°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi44 min 86°F 82°F1010.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi44 min S 5.1 G 5.1 83°F 77°F1010.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi74 min SSW 1 G 1.9 78°F 77°F1011.3 hPa (-1.4)70°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD11 mi37 minWSW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F64°F49%1010.5 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD17 mi21 minS 4 miFair88°F70°F55%1009.3 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD18 mi82 minESE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F73°F68%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE7SW5W6SW3W5W3CalmW4CalmCalmCalm3N3N3CalmN43CalmSW6SW5SW63S4
1 day agoS6SE6SE6SE7S6S5S6S4S5SW6SW5S3S4W3CalmW4SW3W6W6W8W8W7W12W11
2 days agoSE5E5E7E7SE4E5E6E4E5E4CalmCalmNE5CalmCalmCalmE4E5E4E4S6S345

Tide / Current Tables for Colton's Point, Potomac River, Maryland
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Colton's Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:39 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 09:04 AM EDT     2.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:04 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:43 PM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.60.30.20.40.81.31.71.921.91.510.60.30.10.20.51.11.51.92.12.11.9

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Wed -- 01:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:14 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:14 AM EDT     0.43 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 07:35 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:45 AM EDT     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 01:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:55 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:08 PM EDT     0.56 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:00 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.6-0.5-0.3-0.10.20.40.40.2-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.8-0.6-0.300.40.60.50.30-0.3-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.