Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rock Point, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:20PM Monday January 22, 2018 11:15 AM EST (16:15 UTC) Moonrise 10:29AMMoonset 10:46PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ537 Tidal Potomac From Cobb Island To Smith Point- 931 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of today..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt...becoming W 10 to 15 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 931 Am Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain off the southeast coast today. A cold front will approach the area Monday night and cross the area Tuesday. This will be followed by another area of high pressure for the second half of the week. Small craft advisories will likely be needed Tuesday night through Thursday, with gales possible Tuesday with the frontal passage.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rock Point CDP, MD
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location: 38.23, -76.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 221541
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1041 am est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
High pressure remains centered off the mid atlantic coast
today. A trough crosses the region Tuesday morning, with the
cold front lagging behind and pushing through the region by late
afternoon. Es well off the coast by Tuesday night. High
pressure becomes centered over the south central states
Wednesday and builds east into the local area by Thursday.

Near term through tonight
Latest analysis places a potent sfc low ~992mb over iowa with
cutoff upper low lagging back a bit to the SW acrs eastern
kansas and NW missouri. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure remains
off the mid- atlantic coast with dry warm conditions over the
local area. Temperatures are now mainly ranging through the 50s
as of 10 am with a fairly thick cirrus shield in place (and some
mid clouds with CIGS around 10k ft over the eastern shore).

Bufkit soundings suggest a continuation of high clouds all day
and will call it partly cloudy overall for the aftn. Well above
avg for highs today, mainly in the mid-upper 60s except locally
cooler coastal eastern shore va beach nc outer banks. Do not
anticipate setting any record highs today but for reference
these are included in climate section below.

Dry very mild tonight with temperatures staying in the 50s just
about everywhere. Partly mostly cloudy in the evening, then
becoming cloudy overnight with increasing rain chances after 06z
mainly over the piedmont. Have likely pops to the i-95 corridor
after 09z. Enough mid level instability will move in late to
include mention of isolated tstms late across the far west.

Short term Tuesday through Wednesday
High rain chances (60-80%) prevail Tue morning as main sfc low
pressure becomes occluded over michigan and significant pressure
falls and a meso-low develop along the central appalachians by
around 12z. The strength of this feature will likely have a
significant affect on QPF and the potential for some embedded
convection in the morning in a high shear minimal cape
environment. At this time, SPC does not even place the CWA in a
marginal risk and current pattern with convection across the
deep south and gulf of mexico could be a hint that a split in
the precip shield is likely (and thus most areas should expect
0.25" or less of total QPF except for locally higher amounts in
tstms). Models remain in good general agreement wrt timing and
should see pops taper off w-e quickly by aftn... W pcpn moving
out of the entire area by 21z Tue to 00z wed. With aftn
sunshine, deep mixing, and a downslope flow highs Tue will be
breezy and unseasonably warm, possibly close to record highs.

Current forecast is for highs 70-75 f across much of central se
va and NE nc, with 65-70 f on the eastern shore and over the far
n NW sections of the cwa. Dry cooler Tue night Wed W lows
mainly in the 30s and highs Wed upper 40s N and on the ERN shore
to 50-55 f elsewhere.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
Medium range period (late week into next weekend) characterized by
building upper level ridge building over the eastern half of the
conus. Starting off seasonably cool behind the cool front on
Thursday... Then steadily warming as surface high pressure builds
over the area on Friday, sliding offshore late Friday and Saturday.

Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s Thu Fri warm back into the 50s
Saturday... And well into the 50s to 60s by Sunday.

Remaining dry through the Saturday night. Rain chances increase by
late next weekend, as an amplifying upper trough over the plains is
forecast to lift across the plains from the desert southwest
fri sat. Gulf is wide open during this time frame, and expect llvl
moisture to surge north into the area ahead of this feature, with a
period of showers late next weekend. Worth noting that there is good
to excellent agreement among the GEFS eps early next week, as both
show temperatures dropping back quickly behind the associated cold
front into early next week.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
Vfr conditions expected to continue through the bulk of the 12z
taf period. Bkn-ovc mid level cloudiness (cigs mainly 7-9 kft)
moving across the local area attm... Expected to continue into
the morning hours... W most CIGS lifting to above 12 kft for
late this morning-this eve. Generally light S winds early
today... Increasing to 10-15 kt through the rest of day. Sfc high
pres remains off the SE coast W dry conditions continuing. The
next chance for widespread precipitation and flight
restrictions comes after 06-09z 23 through (early) Tue aftn
with a passing cold front. Gusty ssw winds (to 20-30 kt) early
tue shift to the wnw late in the day along W potential for
widespread ifr CIGS (and shras). Isold tstms possible with the
front mainly Tue morning. Dry andVFR conditions then prevail
late tue-fri.

Marine
High pressure over the waters today will keep S winds below 15 kt
waves seas 1-2 ft. Winds will begin to increase tonight as a
deepening low over the great lakes pushes its associated cold front
toward the region by tues morning. Winds will increase to 15 to 25
kt from the s-sw prior to daybreak tues, continuing thru
midday early aftn, with seas on the coastal waters building to 4-6
ft; waves 3-4 ft on the bay. Scas remain in effect for all waters.

Hard to get gales with warm s-sw winds over cold water this time of
year, but did keep mention of a few gusts to 35 kt for our northern
coastal waters. Once the front clears the area tues afternoon, winds
will shift to the west 10-15 kt tues night Wed and then northwest on
Thursday. Waves seas subside to 1-3 ft.

Climate
Record high temperatures today and Tuesday.

Today Tuesday
ric 75 1906 76 1974
orf 77 1937 76 1999
sby 72 1927 73 1999
ecg 79 1937 76 1937

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 am to 6 pm est Tuesday for
anz630>632-634>638.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Tuesday for anz633.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Tuesday to midnight est Tuesday
night for anz650-652-654.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 10 pm est Tuesday for anz656-
658.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Lkb
short term... Alb lkb
long term... Mam
aviation... Alb
marine... Jdm mam
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 12 mi45 min SSW 8.9 G 8.9
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 16 mi45 min Calm G 1.9 51°F 35°F1021.7 hPa
NCDV2 17 mi45 min SSW 6 G 8.9 57°F 36°F1020.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 21 mi45 min SW 7 G 8 58°F 37°F1022.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi45 min S 8 G 9.9 42°F 1022.5 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 25 mi85 min WNW 12 G 12 45°F 1021.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 28 mi75 min SSE 9.7 G 9.7 40°F 34°F1 ft1022 hPa (+1.0)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 37 mi45 min S 11 G 14 45°F 38°F1022.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi105 min SE 4.1 46°F 1021 hPa40°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 42 mi45 min 55°F 33°F1022.7 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi45 min S 6 G 7 52°F 34°F1021.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 49 mi75 min SSW 4.1 G 4.1 40°F 33°F

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD11 mi38 minSW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F41°F55%1022.3 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD17 mi22 minS 99.00 miPartly Cloudy58°F43°F58%1021.7 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD18 mi83 minSSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F41°F62%1021.6 hPa

Wind History from NUI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE4SE6SE7SE6------------------------------S4S7S8S9
1 day agoW54CalmS5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3S5
2 days agoSW6S7SW3SE3E6E4E5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SW5SW4W6

Tide / Current Tables for Colton's Point, Potomac River, Maryland
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Colton's Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:45 AM EST     1.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:29 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:39 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:06 PM EST     1.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:46 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:57 PM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.10.511.41.71.71.51.10.60.20-00.10.30.81.31.61.71.61.30.80.3-0

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Mon -- 01:02 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:01 AM EST     0.43 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:44 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:15 AM EST     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:59 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:57 PM EST     0.36 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:16 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:24 PM EST     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 10:45 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-00.30.40.40.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.200.30.40.30.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.8-0.8-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.