Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dillon Beach, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:58PM Saturday February 23, 2019 1:03 PM PST (21:03 UTC) Moonrise 11:00PMMoonset 9:39AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 833 Am Pst Sat Feb 23 2019
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds and S around 1 ft at 15 seconds. A slight chance of rain.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds and S around 1 ft at 15 seconds. A chance of rain.
Sun..S winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 6 ft at 13 seconds and S around 1 ft at 15 seconds. A chance of rain.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds and S around 1 ft at 13 seconds. A chance of rain.
Mon..S winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. NW swell 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds and S around 1 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Mon night..SE winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. NW swell 2 to 3 ft at 14 seconds and S around 1 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Tue..S winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. NW swell 2 to 3 ft and S around 1 ft. Rain.
Wed..S winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft and S around 1 ft. A chance of rain.
PZZ500 833 Am Pst Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Generally light west to northwest winds will continue today. Winds will turn southerly late this weekend and continue into mid- week. Light to moderate northwest swell will persist into next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dillon Beach, CA
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location: 38.25, -122.98     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 231800
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
1000 am pst Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis Dry and seasonably cool conditions will prevail across
most of the region through the weekend. The exception may be the
north bay where there is a chance of light rain late in the
weekend. A plume of moisture will bring moderate to heavy rain to
the majority of the region for the first half of next week,
though the exact positioning of the heaviest rains continues to
vary. Another potentially wet system may bring more rain to the
region late next week and into the following weekend.

Discussion As of 9:20 am pst Saturday... Water vapor imagery
shows northwesterly flow aloft over northern california this
morning, with plenty of high cloud cover beginning to filter
across the region ahead of the next system. This system is trying
to dig south across the pacific northwest, but running into the
ridge off the west coast. Therefore, expect this system to stall
today, with the main moisture plume primarily focused on the
oregon and california border and the far northern california
coast. However, cannot rule out some light rain maybe sagging
south of point arena late this afternoon or evening. Otherwise,
expect another seasonably cool day to prevail across the region
today, with just a few more high clouds expected than yesterday.

The models continue to show that this moisture plume will remain
focused on the area just to our north through Sunday, with just
some light rain possible across our north bay counties. Our
current forecast seems to be handling this trend well, so no
updates are planned at this time.

The primary focus of this afternoon forecast package will be what
happens with this moisture plume early next week. At this point in
time, most of the models are keeping all the rainfall north of the
golden gate through Monday morning. However, the 12z GFS is
slightly faster than the other models, showing that the bay area
could have a bit of a rainy and messy commute Monday morning. It
looks like the rain should spread as far south as santa cruz
during the day on Monday, but the heaviest rainfall appears to be
focused on the north bay and up into the mendocino coast. At this
point in time, it will be a waiting game to see how the rest of
the 12z models trend. Palmer

Discussion As of 3:30 am pst Saturday... Overnight temperatures
are 5 to 15 degrees cooler versus 24 hours ago despite dew points
running 10 to 15 degrees warmer. Both nights featured clear skies
but differ in that last night featured light to breezy winds for
the majority of the night, where as winds early this morning are
mostly calm across the region. The lack of winds this morning
means the relatively warmer layers aloft decoupled from the
surface layer, allowing it to radiational cool down towards the
dew point. Latest observations suggest temperatures are now
approaching their dew point readings, meaning the cooling rate
will decrease significantly. Sunrise temperatures will be slightly
warmer this morning due to the higher overall dew points versus
24 hours ago despite being significantly cooler at this hour.

The synoptic scale pattern currently features a benign
northwesterly flow aloft with a much deeper 534dm 500mb open wave
farther northward. Forecast models suggest this open wave trough
will descend southward along the british columbia coastline
through the next 24 hours before stalling out near seattle. This
upper low stalls out due to the presence of a broad low amplitude
ridge blocking its southward progression into california.

Satellite imagery model data show the presence of a 0.80-0.90"
precipitable water plume straddling the border of the weak ridge
to the south and the aforementioned trough to the north. The
stalling upper low will tap into this moisture plume through the
weekend, but given the synoptic setup, will keep the bulk of any
rain confined to the northern extremes of sonoma napa counties
and farther northward. Previous model runs have steadily slowed
and shunted northward the precipitation this weekend with the
latest runs continue that line of thinking.

A secondary vorticity pulse will round the base of the trough
later Sunday into early Monday and reinvigorate the broader
trough. The trough deepens and expands southward Sunday night into
Monday, which finally allows precipitation to expand southward
through the north bay and into the immediate san francisco bay
area by Monday morning.

At the same time Monday, a secondary closed low that developed
north of hawaii will steadily move eastward towards northern
california. This secondary feature will drive a deeper
precipitable water plume (1.15-1.25") towards california, which
the strengthening deepening low near seattle will be able to
interact with. This moisture plume looks significant enough to be
classified as a weak to moderate atmospheric river plume and is
expected to bring wet conditions to much of northern california
from Monday through midweek. Forecast confidence remains on the
very low end regarding the positioning of this atmospheric
moisture plume, given that the GFS focuses the bulk of the plume
over the immediate san francisco bay area and the latest run of
the euro has pushed the bulk of the moisture much farther
northward, from ukiah up to central oregon. This is a significant
change, especially when contrasted with previous runs and other
models. Usually we can count on the GFS coming into alignment with
the euro when the euro has high run to run consistency, but the
latest run of the euro removes that possibility. For now, will
treat the last run of the euro as somewhat of an outlier and focus
more on consistency of previous euro runs, with a slight blend
towards the GFS solution in the current forecast package.

Assuming the current forecast package is correct (it will change
in the coming days), the heaviest rain is expected to fall across
the north bay between Monday and Tuesday afternoons. The north
bay mountains and coastal ranges could pick up 4-6" storm total,
with 2.5-3.5" for the inland valleys. Farther southward, 1.25-2.0"
are possible for san francisco, san mateo, alameda and contra
costa counties, plus the santa cruz mountains. Increasingly lesser
amounts are expected farther southward across the south bay and
monterey bay regions as the main moisture plume remains locked in
place farther northward. These numbers will most likely change
given the very low run to run and model to model data consistency.

Southerly winds will be breezy to occasionally gusty with this
storm system but are not expected to be nearly as strong as the
other recent storms that have battered the region since the new
year. Temperatures will be warmer, with highs in the 60s and
overnight lows in the low 50s.

Models agree that we will see a brief period of drying out later
Thursday into early Friday as a weak ridge develops in the buffer
space between the aforementioned storm system and a second storm
system. This second storm system is expected to bring another
round of unsettled wet, windy weather to the region late next week
through next weekend.

Aviation As of 10:00 am pst Saturday... For 18z tafs.VFR
through tonight with increasing and thickening high clouds today.

Expect CIGS to gradually lower this evening and overnight.

Guidance shows development of patchy low clouds into tomorrow
morning. Generally light winds this morning turning onshore this
afternoon.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR. Light winds this morning turning onshore
in the afternoon, but expected to remain generally light (~10 kt).

Increasing high clouds today lowering this evening.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to sfo.

Monterey bay terminals...VFR. Light winds around 10 kt becoming
onshore this afternoon. Increasing high clouds throughout the day
with patchy low cloud development overnight.

Marine As of 8:33 am pst Saturday... Generally light west to
northwest winds will continue today. Winds will turn southerly
late this weekend and continue into mid- week. Light to moderate
northwest swell will persist into next week.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday None.

Public forecast: palmer
aviation: sims
marine: sims
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46013 - Bodega Bay - 48NM North Northwest of San Francisco, CA 17 mi34 min Calm G 1.9 53°F1027.1 hPa
PRYC1 - 9415020 - Point Reyes, CA 18 mi34 min 53°F1026.9 hPa
46214 - Point Reyes, CA (029) 33 mi34 min 54°F6 ft
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 35 mi24 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 51°F 54°F1027.6 hPa
TIBC1 - Tiburon Pier, San Francisco Bay, CA 38 mi53 min E 2.9 48°F 1027 hPa
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 38 mi34 min ESE 1 G 2.9 51°F 53°F1026.6 hPa
DPXC1 - 9415141 - Davis Point, San Pablo Bay, CA 40 mi34 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 49°F 1026.7 hPa
PPXC1 - 9414847 - Richmond (Point Potrero), CA 40 mi34 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 51°F 1027.1 hPa
FTPC1 - 9414290 - San Francisco, CA 41 mi34 min WSW 7 G 9.9 51°F 53°F1027.1 hPa
PXSC1 44 mi34 min 51°F 44°F
PXOC1 - 9414311 - San Francisco (Pier 1), CA 44 mi34 min NNE 1.9 G 2.9 50°F 1025.9 hPa
OKXC1 - 9414776 - Oakland (Berth 34), CA 46 mi34 min S 4.1 G 5.1 54°F 1026.8 hPa
OMHC1 - 9414769 - Oakland Middle Harbor Met, CA 46 mi34 min SSE 4.1 G 6
MZXC1 - 9415102 - Martinez-Amorco CA 48 mi34 min NE 4.1 G 4.1 49°F 48°F1026.9 hPa37°F
UPBC1 48 mi34 min NE 1.9 G 2.9
LNDC1 49 mi34 min SSW 5.1 G 7 52°F 1026.8 hPa
AAMC1 - 9414750 - Alameda, CA 49 mi34 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 50°F 52°F1027.2 hPa

Wind History for Point Reyes, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Rosa, Santa Rosa Sonoma County Airport, CA20 mi71 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy49°F39°F69%1026.4 hPa
Petaluma Municipal Airport, CA20 mi69 minN 010.00 miOvercast50°F41°F71%1027.4 hPa
Novato / Gnoss Field, CA24 mi69 minSSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F39°F67%1027.8 hPa

Wind History from STS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3SE4SW4CalmS4SW7S10S3SE5SE4W6NW4N5W4CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmN5CalmCalmNE3Calm
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2 days agoN6NW11NW13
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NW13NW10NW9N7N6E4W4NE5NW10N6N5N5NW3N6N5N9N9

Tide / Current Tables for Tomales Bay Entrance, California
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Tomales Bay Entrance
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Sat -- 02:10 AM PST     5.16 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:32 AM PST     0.81 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:38 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:22 PM PST     4.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:58 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:30 PM PST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:59 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.94.85.254.33.32.31.40.90.91.32.13.13.94.34.23.72.921.20.80.81.32.2

Tide / Current Tables for Point Reyes, California Current
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Point Reyes
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Sat -- 02:50 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:37 AM PST     -1.19 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:20 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:38 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:11 PM PST     0.96 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:19 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:59 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:59 PM PST     -1.02 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:35 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:59 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.90.5-0.1-0.7-1.1-1.2-1-0.6-0.20.30.810.90.60.2-0.4-0.9-1-0.9-0.6-0.30.20.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sacramento, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.