Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dillon Beach, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 4:57PM Saturday November 17, 2018 2:32 AM PST (10:32 UTC) Moonrise 2:21PMMoonset 1:02AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 214 Am Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
Today..SW winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 15 seconds and S around 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog this morning. Hazy and patchy smoke.
Tonight..SE winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 6 ft at 16 seconds and S around 2 ft at 15 seconds. Hazy and patchy smoke.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft at 15 seconds and S around 2 ft at 14 seconds. Hazy and patchy smoke.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 15 seconds and S around 2 ft at 14 seconds. Hazy and patchy smoke.
Mon..SE winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft and sw around 2 ft. Hazy and patchy smoke.
Mon night..E winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell W 3 to 4 ft and S around 2 ft.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft and S around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed..S winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 8 ft and S around 2 ft. Rain.
PZZ500 214 Am Pst Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Generally light winds will continue through the weekend and into early next week. Southerly winds will increase somewhat by mid- week as an upper trough approaches the region. Mixed moderate northwest swell and a light southerly swell will persist.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dillon Beach, CA
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location: 38.25, -122.98     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 170635
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
1035 pm pst Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis Widespread smoke and haze will continue to result in
poor air quality over much of the san francisco bay area through
the weekend. Otherwise, dry weather with mild temperatures are
forecast to persist through early next week. A significant pattern
change appears likely by midweek, with the potential for
widespread periodic rainfall starting on Wednesday and continuing
through the latter part of the work week.

Discussion As of 820 pm pst Friday... Water vapor imagery
continues to show a large ridge of high pressure just off the west
coast this evening, dominating the our overall weather pattern.

Given the placement of the ridge axis, pressure gradients are
extremely weak, with light and variable winds as well as stagnant
conditions prevailing. Visibilities at most ASOS sites have been
holding at 2.5 miles or less in haze and smoke, and this does not
bode well for our air quality through the weekend.

However, my primary concern with this forecast package is with
the return of the marine layer. The 12z local WRF shows the marine
layer redeveloping along the coast tonight, but especially into
the monterey bay area. This translates well with what we are
currently seeing with the monterey dew point running 23 degrees
higher than this time yesterday, and the salinas dew point running
10 degrees higher. Plus, the preliminary goes-17 nighttime
microphysics imagery is starting to show something developing just
east of monterey near marina. Given the current fine particulates
in the air already, any redevelopment will likely result in fog,
and my concern is that it will be dense. The real question though
is how extensive will this fog or dense fog be? For now, have
added patchy fog to the forecast for late tonight and into
tomorrow morning. However, will hold off issuing a dense fog
advisory for now, since confidence is low as to how widespread the
dense fog may or may not be. This is something that we will need
to continue monitoring this evening and through the night. Palmer

Prev discussion As of 02:00 pm pst Friday... Smoke and poor air
quality has continued to impact the region today, with the bay
area seeing the worst of the impacts. Visibilities are reduced due
to smoke with the livermore airport reporting the lowest
visibility at 3 4 a mile. Not expecting much change in smoke
coverage across the bay area as offshore flow continues to bring
smoke from the central valley through the bay area and the north
bay counties. Coastal areas may see some minor improvements in air
quality with an increase in onshore flow at times this weekend.

However, there is abundant smoke over the coastal waters so not
expecting onshore flow to improve conditions appreciably. Smoke
and poor air quality will continue to be an issue through early
next week.

Highs through the beginning of next week will be in the 60s to
lower 70s. This is a couple of degrees cooler than recent days, as
the ridge of high pressure overhead will weaken due to upper
level low approaching the ridge. Overnight lows will continue to
be cool in the valleys, with 30s to 40s expected. A surface low
just offshore will drive weak onshore flow and could see stratus
push into the bay area and along the coast tonight and again on
Saturday night. Will see an increase in offshore flow in the
higher terrain on Saturday night and into Sunday. Winds could be
breezy at times in the north and east bay hills with low relative
humidity, so fire weather concerns will continue through the
weekend.

Looking ahead to next week, models are in better agreement that
the first disturbance in a major pattern change will arrive on
Wednesday. There are significant differences between the GFS and
the euro on the amplitude of the shortwave trough, with the euro
much deeper and wetter. However, both the euro and GFS ensembles
are in good agreement of at least some precipitation over the
region. Have increased pops into the likely category during the
day on Wednesday. This pattern change will bring a return of
cleaner marine air, stronger winds, and precipitation which will
help to remove smoke from the area. The next trough is expected
to bring additional rainfall late on thanksgiving and into Friday,
with another trough possible over the weekend. These systems will
bring cooler temperatures, with rainfall amounts still highly
uncertain. While the timing and rainfall amounts of these troughs
is uncertain, confidence continues to increase that a major shift
towards a wet pattern will develop for our region.

Aviation As of 10:30 pm pst Friday... For 06z tafs... Widespread
smoke and haze will continue through the forecast period. In
addition, a developing marine layer may result in patchy dense
fog at TAF locations near the coast and locally in the north bay
valleys late Friday night and Saturday morning. Hrrr smoke model
indicates decreasing fog by Saturday afternoon which may result in
somewhat improved visibilities.

Vicinity of ksfo... MVFR-ifr visibilities in smoke and haze, with
some improvement in visibilities possible by late Saturday
afternoon. Local ifr visibilities in fog possible late Friday
night and Saturday morning, most likely to east of ksfo near koak.

Poor slant range visibilities will persist. Winds remaining
light.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals... Ifr visibilities in smoke and haze
early in period with fog likely developing by 10z. Possible lifr
visibilities in fog between 12z and 16z. MVFR ceilings early in
period will likely degrade into ifr ceilings overnight, improving
toVFR conditions by midday Friday. Early return of marine layer
low clouds and fog expected on Saturday evening. Winds light.

Marine As of 8:36 pm pst Friday... Generally light winds will
continue through the weekend and into early next week. A mixed
moderate northwest swell and light southerly swell will also
persist. No significant change in the weather pattern is expected
until the middle of next week at the earliest.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tngt None.

Public forecast: palmer st
aviation: dykema
marine: dykema
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46013 - Bodega Bay - 48NM North Northwest of San Francisco, CA 17 mi33 min WNW 3.9 G 7.8 56°F1016.2 hPa (+0.3)
PRYC1 - 9415020 - Point Reyes, CA 18 mi33 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 55°F1015.7 hPa (+0.0)
46214 - Point Reyes, CA (029) 33 mi33 min 57°F6 ft
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 35 mi23 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 53°F 54°F1016.5 hPa
46237 - San Francisco Bar, CA (142) 37 mi33 min 55°F4 ft
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 38 mi33 min Calm G 0 51°F 56°F1015.7 hPa
PPXC1 - 9414847 - Richmond (Point Potrero), CA 40 mi33 min N 5.1 G 5.1 51°F 1016.3 hPa (+0.3)
DPXC1 - 9415141 - Davis Point, San Pablo Bay, CA 40 mi33 min WNW 1 G 2.9 49°F 1015.8 hPa (+0.3)
FTPC1 - 9414290 - San Francisco, CA 41 mi33 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 51°F 55°F1016.4 hPa (+0.4)
PXOC1 - 9414311 - San Francisco (Pier 1), CA 44 mi33 min W 2.9 G 4.1 53°F 1015.2 hPa (+0.5)
PXSC1 44 mi33 min 54°F 53°F
OMHC1 - 9414769 - Oakland Middle Harbor Met, CA 46 mi33 min NW 4.1 G 5.1
OKXC1 - 9414776 - Oakland (Berth 34), CA 46 mi33 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 52°F 1016.2 hPa (+0.5)
OBXC1 46 mi33 min 53°F 47°F
MZXC1 - 9415102 - Martinez-Amorco CA 48 mi33 min Calm G 1 47°F 56°F1016 hPa (+0.3)38°F
AAMC1 - 9414750 - Alameda, CA 49 mi33 min Calm G 1 51°F 58°F1016.4 hPa (+0.4)
LNDC1 49 mi33 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 53°F 1016 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Point Reyes, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Rosa, Santa Rosa Sonoma County Airport, CA20 mi40 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist33°F32°F96%1015.2 hPa
Petaluma Municipal Airport, CA20 mi58 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist32°F28°F87%1016.3 hPa
Novato / Gnoss Field, CA24 mi38 minN 02.50 miOvercast with Haze37°F30°F75%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from O69 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE33S4S5SE5SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Tomales Bay entrance, California
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Tomales Bay Entrance
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Sat -- 12:46 AM PST     0.88 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:02 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:55 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:36 AM PST     4.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:56 PM PST     1.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:20 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:58 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:10 PM PST     3.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.91.21.72.53.444.44.44.13.632.521.92.12.533.43.63.53.12.62

Tide / Current Tables for Point Reyes, California Current
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Point Reyes
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:03 AM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:38 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:44 AM PST     0.82 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:55 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:55 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:29 AM PST     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:20 PM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:27 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:58 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:05 PM PST     0.58 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:51 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:35 PM PST     -0.86 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.20.20.50.80.80.70.4-0-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.20.20.50.60.50.3-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sacramento, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.