Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fishing Creek, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:14PM Thursday May 23, 2019 12:52 AM EDT (04:52 UTC) Moonrise 11:41PMMoonset 8:49AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ534 Chesapeake Bay From Drum Point To Smith Point- 1036 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening...
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1036 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore through tonight. A warm front will approach the waters late tonight before passing through Thursday and a cold front will pass through the waters Thursday night. The cold front will stall out nearby for the rest of the weekend into early next week. A small craft advisory will be needed for the waters Friday, and possibly into Friday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fishing Creek, MD
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location: 38.27, -76.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 230140
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
940 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will move offshore through this evening. A warm
front will pass through the area late tonight into Thursday. A
cold front will approach Thursday night before stalling out
nearby for Friday and Saturday. The boundary will likely
dissipate Sunday but another cold front will approach from the
north and this boundary will likely stall out nearby for the
early portion of next week. Unsettled conditions are possible
during this time.

Near term through Thursday
High pressure continues to move offshore this evening with high
level clouds continue to move across our area. A warm front
will move into the region late tonight along with a weak upper-
level disturbance. There may be just enough lift ahead of the
boundary to trigger a few showers and perhaps even a
thunderstorm. However, coverage should be isolated to scattered
since the lifting mechanism will be weak and instability will be
elevated and limited. No severe weather is expected. Min temps
will hold in the upper 50s to the lower middle 60s for most
areas due to the southerly winds.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
The warm front will pass through the area Thursday morning. A
couple showers and perhaps even an isolated thunderstorm may
accompany the frontal passage, but again coverage will be
isolated to widely scattered.

A west to southwest flow behind the boundary will usher in
noticeably warmer and more humid conditions. MAX temps will top
off well into the 80s for most areas, and a few locations may
even approach 90 degrees. Dewpoints should rise into the 60s for
most areas, making it feel more uncomfortable as well.

Still keeping a close eye on the potential for severe
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. The warmer and
more humid conditions will lead to an unstable atmosphere. The
12z href forecasts mean SBCAPE to be about 1-2kj kg across most
of the area with locally higher amounts east of the blue ridge
mountains (where dewpoints will be a bit higher east of a
pressure trough). Deep layer shear will most likely be around 40
to 50 knots, which is plenty to support the threat of severe
thunderstorms. Latest guidance has come into better agreement
that an MCS will track across the midwest tonight and then
toward our area Thursday morning. The system will likely pass
through our area Thursday afternoon and evening, and with the
moderate instability and shear in place... The threat for severe
thunderstorms is elevated with damaging winds being the
primary threat along with large hail. Confidence is still low on
exactly how this will play out because it will be highly
dependent on the strength of the mcs, which has not developed
yet. If the MCS holds together and tracks through our area, then
the threat for severe thunderstorms will be enhanced. However,
if the MCS dissipates before reaching our area, then popup
thunderstorms will still pose a threat for severe weather but it
will be more isolated. Latest thinking is that the best chance
for more enhanced severe weather will be across our northern and
perhaps even central areas... Where height falls are more
noticeable and there will be less of an impact from downsloping
low-level westerly flow.

The actual cold front will drop into our area from the north
Thursday night. Convection will dissipate overnight with the
loss of daytime heating and a downslope west to northwest flow.

The cold front will stall out over central virginia. There will
not be much of a temperature gradient with MAX temps ranging
from the lower to middle 80s for most areas, but upper 80s to
near 90 in central virginia. Dewpoints will mix down into the
50s north of the boundary making it more comfortable compared to
Thursday. High pressure will briefly build overhead Friday
night, allowing for dry conditions. The boundary will likely
push farther south and west likely getting hung up near
appalachains.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
Mid-upper level flow will be zonal across the eastern conus
through the extended forecast period. Consequently,
latitudinal variability in frontal positions will be
constrained. Low pressure will be tracking across canada this
weekend, which will drop a cold front across the great lakes
toward new england. This front likely will stall; it remains to
be seen whether that will be across the forecast area, to the
north, or to the south. Regardless, we'll be close enough to the
frontal zone for a chance of showers (and some thunderstorms)
on most days. Sunday may become the most pronounced of those
days, as that will be when frontal forcing collides with a
warmer, more humid air mass. Ultimately, forecast temperatures
will depend upon resolving fate of that boundary, and it appears
that there may be an opportunity for it to be south of the area
for at least one day.

Aviation 01z Thursday through Monday
Vfr conditions are expected most of the time through Friday
night. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may impact the
terminals late tonight into Thursday morning, but severe storms
are not expected. There is a better chance for thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening. Subvfr conditions are possible
along with the possibility for locally damaging winds and large
hail. Drier conditions along with a west to northwest flow is
expected behind a cold front later Thursday night through
Friday. Winds will become light Friday night.

Local flight restrictions possible this weekend within
showers thunderstorms. Late Sunday appears to be the more likely
day for storm development to occur.

Marine
A southerly flow will strengthen over the waters tonight ahead
of a warm front. The warm front will pass through the waters
Thursday and a deep mixing layer should allow for breezy
conditions Thursday afternoon. A small craft advisory is in
effect for the middle portion of the bay and lower tidal potomac
river for southerly channeling winds overnight into Thursday
morning and an SCA is in effect for the rest of the waters
Thursday afternoon and evening.

There is a chance for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon
and evening, with the most likely time being between 4 pm and 8
pm. Confidence in coverage of severe storms is low, but locally
damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible later Thursday
afternoon and evening.

A cold front will stall to the south and west of the waters
Friday through Friday night, but an SCA will likely be needed
for portions of the waters during this time.

South winds will increase Saturday afternoon evening. If
ingredients come together, the setup for southerly channeling
will be there. It's unclear at this time whether SCA conditions
would result.

A cold front will drop towards the waters Sunday; however, at this
time it does not seem as though the front will make it to the bay
potomac. That would keep the preferred mixing on land.

Tides coastal flooding
A southerly flow will increase over the waters through tonight
and this will cause anomalies to increase. Minor flooding is
possible for sensitive areas with the high tide cycle late
tonight into Thursday morning, but confidence is too low at
this time for an advisory. The flow will turn toward the west
Thursday night and northwest Friday, causing anomalies to
decrease.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight edt Thursday night for
anz531>534-537-539>541-543.

Small craft advisory from noon Thursday to midnight edt
Thursday night for anz530-535-536-538-542.

Synopsis... Bjl
near term... Bjl imr jmg
short term... Bjl
long term... Hts
aviation... Bjl hts
marine... Bjl hts
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 11 mi47 min S 8.9 G 12 66°F 71°F1025.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 12 mi35 min S 15 G 17 65°F 1025.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 12 mi35 min SSE 7 G 8 64°F 70°F1024 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 17 mi53 min SSW 12 G 14 67°F 70°F1024.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 19 mi35 min SSW 13 G 15
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 22 mi71 min S 12 G 14 66°F 1025.1 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 23 mi47 min 62°F 71°F1024.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 23 mi47 min SSW 7 G 8 63°F 70°F1025 hPa
NCDV2 43 mi47 min S 5.1 G 7 63°F 73°F1023.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 45 mi53 min SSE 18 G 19 66°F 66°F1024.8 hPa (+0.0)53°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 49 mi59 min SSW 14 G 16 66°F 71°F1022.8 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 49 mi53 min S 16 G 16 66°F 67°F1024 hPa (-0.2)

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD9 mi61 minSSE 610.00 miFair63°F51°F65%1024.7 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD14 mi60 minSSE 710.00 miFair68°F52°F57%1024.6 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD17 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair59°F50°F72%1025.4 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD21 mi68 minESE 410.00 miFair59°F51°F77%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5W4NW5NE8NE7NE6NE5NE10NE9E8E7S663SE4S5E7SE8SE10S8S4CalmS6S6
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Tide / Current Tables for Hooper Island Light, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Hooper Island Light
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Thu -- 05:39 AM EDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:55 PM EDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:12 PM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:37 PM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.711.31.82.12.32.42.21.91.61.210.70.70.811.31.51.61.61.41.10.90.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:42 AM EDT     -0.33 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:01 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     0.68 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:58 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:38 PM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:05 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:33 PM EDT     0.36 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:51 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.30.50.70.70.50.3-0-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.3-00.20.30.40.30.1-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.