Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM Moonrise 3:32 AM   Moonset 4:21 PM

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ANZ534 Chesapeake Bay From Drum Point To Smith Point- 436 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening - .
Rest of this afternoon - SE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered showers. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Numerous showers. Mon - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Patchy fog. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Tue night - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Thu - SE winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming w. Waves 2 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 436 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters during the middle to late part of the week.

FXUS61 KLWX 051852 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 252 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
An active pattern will continue through mid-week as multiple disturbances pass through the area. A cold front will move through toward the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A turn in wind direction out of the south and southwest in the Appalachians and Shenandoah Valley may be indicating that the CAD wedge maybe gradually eroding away. Light rain showers exist on radar from northeastern Maryland, southwest to just east of Washington D.C. to near Fredericksburg, VA. Additional popup showers are developing over western Maryland and parts of north-central West Virginia. These showers may be accompanied by thunderstorms as the afternoon progresses into this evening.
Temperatures have only managed to climb a few degrees in the CAD wedge to the east of the Blue Ridge, while temperatures to the west of the CAD wedge have risen an average of 5 to 8 degrees in the past 2 to 3 hours. Highs under the CAD wedge will be in the lower to middle 60s, while highs where there was some sunshine this morning will reach the lower to middle 70s.

Drier conditions will evolve tonight but skies could still remain cloudy for most. Patchy fog may form in parts of the VA Piedmont and northern and northeastern VA where clouds break.
Visibility may drop to a mile or two. Tonight's lows will not be as cool as last night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A mid-level low pressure system over the western Ohio Valley will send waves of energy east into our region Monday, Monday night and into Tuesday. This will provide a prolonged period of cloud cover, developing showers and a couple of thunderstorms, and perhaps some erratic wind directions and speeds, depending on where any stationary fronts or cold fronts align during this 36 hours period early in the week. Highs Monday will be warmer with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Showers and thunderstorms appear possible Monday afternoon, with the greatest coverage expected to be across the Central Shenandoah Valley into Central Virginia, where low- level convergence is expected to be maximized. Showers and thunderstorms could be slow-moving Monday into Monday evening; thus, heavy rainfall could bring a chance for some isolated flooding. Rain amounts could be on the order of a few inches.

Additional showers and thunderstorms appear possible again on Tuesday as a disturbance tracks into the Great Lakes. Much like Monday, high temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Soundings again show relatively saturated profiles along with some surface based instability, so storms may once again be heavy rainfall producers.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue by Wednesday, with an approaching cold front from the west. The precip chances will increase from west to east later in the day on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s for the lower elevations and 70s for the mountains. Winds out of the west will be gusting to 15 to 20 knots throughout the afternoon. Precipitation chances increase overnight Wednesday and through the day on Thursday as the front continues to approach the area. Given the increasing instability ahead of the front, a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible with the frontal passage on Thursday. Additionally, some isolated instances of flooding will be possible with the continuous prolonged batches of precipitation over just a few days. Still a lot of uncertainty pertaining to timing, intensity and antecedent conditions. Highs on Thursday will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s for most areas.

Behind the front on Friday, precipitation will likely linger around with highs in the 70s for the lower elevations and 60s in the mountains. Northwest winds will remain elevated with gusts getting into the 15 to 25 knots range, with the higher amounts along the higher elevations. Lingering light showers may persist into the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 60s for most areas with 50s in the mountains.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
IFR conditions with rain showers will linger at the major terminals along I-95 and northeast Virginia for another few hours this afternoon. Additional showers or thunderstorms could move across MRB, IAD later this afternoon as they develop and move east. Winds will become more southeast to southerly late into this evening. IFR ceilings and fog look to build back in tonight.

VFR conditions is expected on Monday. An afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm may be possible at any of the terminals, with CHO standing the greatest chance to see impacts. Winds will be light and somewhat variable Monday. Prevailing VFR conditions continue into Tuesday, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible once again. Winds will turn southerly on Tuesday, but remain relatively light.

Mainly VFR conditions for the terminals on Wednesday with increasing chances of sub-VFR ceilings by Wednesday night into Thursday as precipitation begins to track across the area. Winds out of the west will continue to gust out of the west.

MARINE
Winds will become southeast to southerly. SCAs remain in effect for the wider waters this afternoon. SCAs may potentially need to be extended a bit into the overnight hours in channeled southerly flow. Thereafter, sub-SCA magnitude is expected on both Monday and Tuesday. Thunderstorms will be possible both Monday and Tuesday. Any storms that move over the waters could lead to the issuance of SMWs.

SCA conditions are possible Wednesday and Thursday with increasing pressure gradient over the waters. Additionally, an SMW may be needed for any stronger thunderstorms that cross the waters Thursday afternoon and evening.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
More sensitive sites will encounter minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding through Monday morning. Winds will begin to turn more out of the southwest on Monday with slow improvements in coastal flooding through midweek. Additional periods of coastal flooding are possible into Wednesday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ533- 534-537-543.

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Hooper Island Light
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:32 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:06 PM EDT     1.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:10 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hooper Island Light, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, Tide feet

Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     0.72 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:38 AM EDT     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:16 PM EDT     0.42 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:07 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:28 PM EDT     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:09 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current, knots

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