Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lexington Park, MD

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Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:36PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 1:56 PM EDT (17:56 UTC) Moonrise 9:37PMMoonset 6:39AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 138 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
This afternoon..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 138 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A front will remain stalled out across the area this afternoon. It will then cross the region late Thursday or early Friday, with high pressure building over the waters at the end of the week and into the weekend. Small craft advisories may be necessary Thursday night and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lexington Park, MD
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location: 38.27, -76.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 191434
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1034 am edt Wed jun 19 2019

Synopsis
A front will be stalled near the area through much of the
upcoming week. This will lead to a prolonged period of unsettled
weather. The front should finally push southeast of the region
Friday, with a period of drier and less humid weather likely for
week's end and the start of the weekend.

Near term through tonight
A stationary front remains draped to the north while bermuda
high pressure is centered to our southeast. We will remain in
the warm sector. While there is no significant shortwaves
coming in for this afternoon, heights will be slowly falling as
we head through the day. Clouds will be plentiful, but expect
enough destabilization in the strong june sunshine to result in
more showers and storms by this afternoon, waning once again as
we lose heating this evening. Storm motion looks slower than
yesterday, but CAPE also looks reduced and shear is pretty weak
too, so do not expect a lot of severe weather or flooding. Thus,
no watches are planned for flooding, and the SPC has kept us in
general thunder. That said, certainly wouldn't rule out an
isolated instance of flooding or severe weather given high pw's
and numerous storms, resulting in lots of opportunities, even if
individual storm chances look low. Thus, will mention isolated
potential in the hwo. Otherwise, just another warm muggy june
day, with highs in the 80s. Tonight will see convection die in
the evening, with late night hour turning out mostly dry, except
for perhaps some mist or light fog. Lows again in the 60s and
70s.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
We will finally see a significant change to the pattern start to
take shape on Thursday. A strengthening, digging upper level
trough will approach from the west. This will induce stronger
surface cyclogenesis on the front to our northwest, with this
low then heading northeastward into new york, new england and
far southern canada. As the low moves east, the cold front to
its west will be shoved southeastward, pushing across our region
Thursday night. Southerly flow ahead of the front will bring
slightly warmer air northward, and we should start out with some
sun, so highs will approach 90 on Thursday. This will aid
destablization, with CAPE values likely to approach or exceed
2000 j kg by afternoon. Shear is not looking particularly
strong, near 30 knots, but certainly more than today, and
whatever is lacking in shear may be more than made up for in
cape. Mid-level lapse rates should also increase, nearing 7c km.

This will help to make for some "fat cape", with a significant
amount in the hail growth zone. Thus, storms on Thursday
afternoon will have potential for large hail in addition to
damaging winds, though right now at least, the tornado threat
appears limited. Storms likely MAX out during late
afternoon early evening and then wane after that.

Upper trough swinging through late at night, combined with a
secondary front, may allow a few showers to linger or redevelop
late Thursday night or Friday morning, but most of the region
should be drying out and cooling down. As the surface low
strengthens to the northeast, winds may gust upwards of 35 mph
by Friday afternoon, helping the overall feeling of a refreshing
change to the weather. Highs will only be a bit cooler, with
lower 80s common, but humidity will be much lower, with dew
points likely falling into the upper 50s. Winds should die down
as high pressure builds closer to the region Friday night, and
lows will drop much lower than recent days, with 50s common in
rural areas. One thing to watch Friday night is the front, which
will now be stalled to our south. A weak wave may approach from
the west late at night, which could cause a few showers or a
thunderstorm to develop or move into west-central va late.

However, odds of this remain low.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
High pressure should be generally overhead on Saturday with a
frontal boundary poitioned south west of the region across the
southern appalachians and ohio valley. This should lead to
mainly dry and pleasant conditions, although will keep a slight
to low chance of a few showers storms across parts of eastern wv
and western central va nearest to the frontal boundary and
impulses riding along it.

Upper level ridging will then build eastward on Sunday, with
the frontal boundary advancing northeastward towards the area as
a warm front during the day. This will act to increase chances
for some showers thunderstorms, especially across
central western va and eastern wv. The front will then lift
through the area Monday with continued building heights out
ahead of a system over the midwest. This will lead to rising
temperatures and humidity values, and along with that, some
chances for showers thunderstorms across the region.

The system over the midwest will then move eastward on Tuesday
towards the mid-atlantic states, with continued chances for some
showers thunderstorms.

High temperatures will rise from the 80s on Saturday and Sunday
and towards or near 90f by Monday Tuesday.

Aviation 15z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr overall this afternoon and again Thursday, but showers and
t-storms will pose a threat of additional sub-VFR conditions
during the afternoon and evening hours both days. Cold front
then clears out the t-storm risk for Friday, withVFR
dominating, though gusty northwest winds may exceed 30 knots at
times.

PrimarilyVFR expected Saturday and Sunday with high pressure
building near the region. A few showers storms may be around,
especially cho Sunday.

Marine
Winds below SCA levels through Thursday morning. Main concern
will be potential gusty winds with thunderstorms this afternoon,
which may require special marine warnings.

Southerly flow picks up ahead of an approaching cold front
Thursday afternoon. This may result in marginal SCA conditions,
but confidence is currently low, so have held off on issuing
sca.

Strong (for late june) northwest flow behind cold front on
Friday will lead to widespread SCA gusts, potentially has high
as 30 knots or so. Winds should diminish Friday night.

Sub-sca conditions will return Saturday and Sunday as high
pressure builds near the waters.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm klw
short term... Rcm
long term... Mm
aviation... Mm klw
marine... Mm klw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 4 mi56 min SW 5.1 G 6 81°F 75°F1008.9 hPa (-1.4)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 10 mi51 min S 4.1 G 4.1
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 10 mi56 min S 9.9 G 11 75°F 1010 hPa (-1.2)
44042 - Potomac, MD 18 mi26 min Calm G 0 80°F 79°F1008.5 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 19 mi56 min SW 8 G 9.9 81°F 79°F1009.3 hPa (-1.5)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 23 mi62 min SW 8 G 9.9 78°F 82°F1010.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 30 mi56 min 81°F 78°F1009.3 hPa (-1.0)
NCDV2 31 mi56 min ESE 5.1 G 6 79°F 79°F1008.5 hPa (-1.4)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 43 mi56 min SE 6 G 7 75°F 74°F1010.2 hPa71°F
44063 - Annapolis 48 mi26 min E 3.9 G 3.9 76°F 77°F1009.2 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 49 mi56 min 78°F 1008.7 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for Solomons Island, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD3 mi64 minSSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F75°F82%1009.3 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD6 mi73 minSSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F71°F79%1010.2 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD9 mi63 minS 810.00 miFair85°F78°F80%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9N7W5SW5SW3SW3W16
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1 day agoSE10SE8SE9SE5SE10S5SE3N8
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Tide / Current Tables for Solomons Island, Patuxent River, Maryland (3)
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Solomons Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:07 AM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:24 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:27 PM EDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:52 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.31.722.121.81.51.20.90.70.50.50.70.91.11.31.31.10.90.70.50.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Wed -- 12:57 AM EDT     0.68 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:49 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:58 AM EDT     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 12:37 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:03 PM EDT     0.33 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:40 PM EDT     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:36 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:03 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.60.3-0.1-0.5-0.8-1-1.1-1-0.8-0.5-0.20.10.30.30.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.3-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.