Monday, February19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
English, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 6:32PM Monday February 19, 2018 2:55 PM EST (19:55 UTC) Moonrise 9:44AMMoonset 10:23PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near English, IN
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location: 38.27, -86.48     debug

Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 191749
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
1249 pm est Mon feb 19 2018

Updated aviation discussion...

Forecast update
Issued at 1042 am est Mon feb 19 2018
currently, partly to mostly sunny skies were noted across much of
central kentucky this morning. Partly to mostly cloudy skies were
found across southern indiana. Earlier rain showers have moved
northward into ohio. Some additional rain showers will affect our
far northwest counties into the afternoon hours.

With this forecast update, have trimmed back pops to just our far
northwest counties. Have also decreased cloud cover across ky in
the near term, but we'll see some upper level cloudiness move back
in this afternoon. Strong south southwest winds will be seen this
afternoon with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 35 mph
at times. Have also raised high temperatures a bit. Highs will
range from the upper 60s to around 70 across our far northern
southern indiana counties. Across ky highs of 73-78 look likely.

This warmth across ky may result in most sites coming close to
tie or break their daily maximum temp records.

Short term (today through Tuesday)
issued at 236 am est Mon feb 19 2018
at the surface the short term will be spent sitting between high
pressure off the east coast ridging back into the southeast united
states and low pressure from the southern rockies to the great
lakes. The upper pattern will become increasingly meridional with a
trough digging into the west and a ridge pumping up over the east.

The ridging will keep upper vort energy and lower surface pressures
to our west and north, and, as a result, that's where most of the
shower activity will be as well. The best chance for showers here
will be during the morning hours today as a warm front lifts
northward across the region.

Deep southwesterly flow will bring very moist, warm air northward.

Surface winds will gust to 30-35mph this afternoon and Tuesday
afternoon, with temperatures peaking in the 70s both days. Didn't go
quite as robust with the temperatures tomorrow as the GFS did since
clouds and wet ground may help to temper things a bit, especially
with the still relatively low Sun angle in february. Nevertheless, a
few spots touching 80 isn't entirely out of the question and has
been advertised by the models for several days now. Went on the
warm side of guidance for lows tonight in the 60s.

Long term (Tuesday night through Sunday)
issued at 250 am est Mon feb 19 2018

Significant rainfall possible this week and into the weekend...

the trough west ridge east pattern will stay in place through this
weekend, though it will start to flatten late in the week. The main
corridor of heavy rains will be from texas to the eastern great
lakes, with frequent waves of showers moving along that pathway in
the static pattern.

The mean of the GEFS plumes is showing three inches of rain during
the Wednesday-Sunday time period. The operational run of the GFS is
close to the mean in central kentucky but is a very wet outlier in
southern indiana. Naefs output is closer to 4 inches, and the euro
is generally in the 3 to 5 inch range. GEFS mean and GFS are also
generally in the 3 to 5 inch range if the wet anomaly over southern
indiana is taken as being too high. An amount of 3-5" is also in
agreement with the latest wpc data as of this writing.

There may be enough instability present for a few rumbles of thunder
Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday, primarily in kentucky.

Went warm for low temperatures south of the ohio river Tuesday
night, with the lake cumberland region possibly not falling below
the middle 60s. No cold weather is in the picture throughout the
long term period, with lows most nights near or above the normal
highs for this time of year.

Aviation (18z TAF issuance)
issued at 1245 pm est Mon feb 19 2018
the main aviation impact this TAF period will be the wind. Winds are
currently gusting at the surface to 25-30 kts, which is forecast to
continue through sunset. The gusts will diminish somewhat late this
evening, but llws concerns return due to winds increasing to 45-50
kts at 2-3 kft after 02z. Passing (sct bkn) mid and high clouds will
continue to stream overhead from the southwest. Hnb has been MVFR
all morning, but those lower clouds are forecast to lift to the
northwest this afternoon through tonight. Another period of MVFR
will be possible toward daybreak Tuesday. Tuesday will be similar
today, with southwest winds cranking up after sunrise. Gusts to 30
kts will be common.

Issued at 304 am est Mon feb 19 2018
minor flooding is already occurring on the ohio river at tell city
and should commence tonight at cannelton and mcalpine upper. The
rolling fork river near boston is slightly above flood stage at the
time of this writing, but being a smaller stream and with only some
light rain showers in the area today, it should fall below flood
stage this morning.

In general, many other river forecast points in southern indiana and
central kentucky are forecast to go into minor flood. Depending on
the location of the heaviest rainfall later this week, some rivers
could reach moderate flood stage. Confidence in minor flooding is
high, and confidence in moderate flooding is medium. If rainfall
amounts are on the high side of the current forecast, the ohio river
could approach moderate flood levels from louisville downstream.

Looking at GEFS and naefs data, there is, as of right now, a 50-60%
chance of mcalpine upper getting to between 29 and 30 feet this
weekend. Of course, that is *highly* dependent on how much rain
actually falls in the basin over the next several days. Just
something to keep an eye on for now.

The main risk for heavy rainfall across southern indiana and central
kentucky will be from Wednesday into the weekend. Multiple rounds of
moderate to heavy rainfall are possible in this time frame. Rainfall
amounts exceeding 3 to 5 inches are possible. This would exacerbate
flooding problems in low-lying areas and near rivers and creeks.

Stay tuned to the latest rainfall and river forecasts in the coming
days since the flood forecast will depend strongly on just where the
axis of heaviest rain sets up.

Issued at 318 am est Mon feb 19 2018
record warm temperatures are possible today and Tuesday. Below are
the daily record high temperature records for 2 19 and 2 20 and the
all-time february high temperature records, which may be in jeopardy
for some locations tomorrow.

Mon 2 19 tues 2 20 feb all-time
sdf 74 (1939) 76 (2016) 81 (2 24 2017)
lex 75 (1939) 72 (2016*) 80 (2 23 1996)
bwg 73 (1994*) 76 (2017) 83 (2 28 1918)
fft 75 (1939) 73 (2016) 80 (2 24 2017 & 2 10 1932)
record warm lows are expected on Tuesday. Here are the current
sdf 55 (1994)
lex 54 (1994)
bwg 55 (1994)
* and previous years

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Ky... None.

Update... Mj
long term... 13
aviation... Ebw
hydrology... 13
climate... ..13

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntingburg, IN25 mi59 minSSW 15 G 2810.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F59°F62%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from HNB (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE8SE8SE7SE8SE6SE7SE8SE10SE8SE8S8S6S13S13S15S13S15
1 day agoSE5S7SW3SW5SW6W9W13W9W6W4CalmCalmS3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4SE5E10SE11SE9
2 days agoN9N7N7N8N6N5N6CalmNE4NE3CalmE4E4E4CalmE4E5NE5NE6NE3E5E5E6SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.