Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
English, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:31PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 5:26 AM EST (10:26 UTC) Moonrise 2:50PMMoonset 3:14AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near English, IN
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location: 38.27, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Louisville, KY
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Fxus63 klmk 180811
afdlmk
area forecast discussion
national weather service louisville ky
311 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 245 am est Tue dec 18 2018
a high pressure center advancing from fort wayne to CAPE hatteras
will give us very quiet weather today and tonight. Some valley fog
in the lake cumberland area and along the kentucky river will burn
off this morning, replaced by patchy cirrus today and tonight
streaming in from the west. High temperatures today will be 45-50
and lows tonight around 30 with light winds.

Long term (Wednesday through Monday)
issued at 300 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Complex storm system to affect our area Thu and fri...

Wednesday - Wednesday night...

expect a mild, dry day over our forecast area on Wed as the flow
aloft amplifies significantly across the central u.S. Downstream,
clouds will be on the increase during the day across the oh valley
as deeper-layer moisture begins to surge northward out of the gulf
of mexico. Highs Wed afternoon will surge through the 50s and could
hit around 60 downstate. Showers should develop over central ky wed
night as the southern moisture streams into the tn and lower oh
valleys in advance of the deepening trough to our west.

Thursday - Friday...

complex meridional trough axis comes together from the upper ms
valley and western great lakes to the lower ms valley and gulf
coast. As expected, models offer slightly varying solutions in the
trough evolution and the degree to which a closed low will form on
the southern extension of the trough over the gulf states. Even the
surface low position in each model is not necessarily consolidated
as one entity that bodily moves nne from the gulf states up the
spine of the appalachians. Inconsistency in these finer details will
ultimately affect sensible weather conditions across our area,
although good agreement exists in the synoptic signal.

Rain showers will break out first across central ky late Wed night
and continue areawide Thu within an area of isentropic and moisture
upglide (e.G., on 290 and 295 k potential temp surfaces) within the
low-to-mid-level warm conveyer belt. Rain intensities will vary from
light to moderate, with embedded episodic heavier elements.

Currently, consensus model qpf, wpc qpf, and GEFS plumes suggest
highest rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.5 inches from parts of south-
central to east-central ky (perhaps higher over eastern ky).

Additional rain showers will occur on the back side of the storm as
the low moves nne to our south and east. This would be within an
elongated deformation like structure, centered from the gulf states
northward into the lower oh valley.

The question remains whether precip will change to snow on the back
side of this system Fri morning. Models tonight show a little more
of an elongated trough aloft to the north of the closed low than
last nights runs, with some northern energy bringing some cooler air
aloft into it. This would suggest that at least a mix if not a
changeover to wet snow could occur, first over the western half of
our forecast area. The GFS is on the warmer side (perhaps a bit too
much) in its boundary layer temps despite cool advection aloft,
suggesting a mix at most at the end.

If a changeover occurs, should not amount to too much given marginal
surface temps (for instance, a scenario of wet snow falling with mid
30s temps over western areas is possible). However, have seen narrow
banding occasionally occur on the western edge of such systems which
can surprise. Once again, models will inevitably change, which will
affect our forecast. Trends are more important than one particular
model or one model run time. Precip will move east and diminish to
flurries or drizzle later Fri as the trough and deeper moisture pull
eastward.

The other concern on Fri is potential for very gusty N to NW winds
on the back side of the surface low due to a strong pressure
gradient. Interestingly, models suggest development of steeper low-
level (below 850 mb) lapse rates in a layer with a forecast of
ambient 30-35 kt winds. Given the warmer boundary layer temps in the
gfs, its lapse rates and wind gust potential are highest, i.E., over
30 kts. Even if this is a little high, expect Fri to be gusty (20-
30+ kts at times) and raw.

Saturday - Monday...

the flow aloft relaxes and becomes more zonal quickly this coming
weekend. This means a return to dry weather for the most part,
except for possibly isolated showers with a quick moving moisture-
starved system late Sunday or Sunday night. High temps each day
should top out through the 40s.

Aviation (06z TAF issuance)
updated at 1221 am est Tue dec 18 2018
high pressure centered near ord at the start of the TAF period will
slide southeast, reaching CAPE hatteras by Wednesday morning. Winds
will be light and the weather will be quiet as this high moves
through.

We have some dry air advecting into the region helping to keep fog
at bay. Satellite loops show some fog developing in the deeper river
valleys of eastern kentucky, but with markedly less coverage than 24
hours ago. Satellite also shows cirrus, albeit thin, spreading in
from the west. Model data take this ci across most of central
kentucky and southern indiana during the pre-dawn hours. So, fog
chances look to be fairly slim this morning though some ground fog
can't be completely ruled out at bwg and lex. Will keep an eye on
satellite and observation trends.

Lmk watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Ky... None.

Short term... 13
long term... Twf
aviation... 13


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntingburg, IN25 mi30 minN 010.00 miFair28°F26°F92%1024.1 hPa

Wind History from HNB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3W4NW3S3W44W5NW34NW7N6NW5NW5NW4NW4NW5N4N4N3NE3CalmN3CalmCalm
1 day agoNW7NW5NW5NW8NW9W4W9W4S3SW4W7W8W8SW4SW4CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W3
2 days agoNE12NE7NE10NE9NE11NE12NE11NE8NE8N7N9NE10N4NW8N10N8NW9NW7NW10NW10NW10N10
G15
N6NW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Louisville, KY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Louisville, KY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.