Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 10:45 AM   Moonset 12:50 AM

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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 153 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Overnight - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Numerous showers. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less. Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms. Wed night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Showers likely after midnight. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 402 Am Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis - A warm front lifts north of the waters today, with winds remaining moderate to fresh from the south-southeast through tonight. Low pressure will meander from the ohio valley to the carolina coast over the next couple days, dragging a weakening cold front toward the local waters by Wednesday night. Scattered showers and lightning storms will continue to be possible through midweek. The cold front will become stationary before dissipating over south florida late this week.
Gulf stream hazards - South to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday, may 14th.
41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS61 KLWX 140800 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Slow moving low pressure will gradually push across the Mid-Atlantic region today through Wednesday bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms as well as below normal temperatures.
Drier conditions return briefly Thursday before another storm system brings the threat for showers and storms Friday into the weekend.
Weak high pressure tries to build back over the area Monday with additional shower and thunderstorm chances heading into the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Low pressure is swirling over Missouri this morning while a lead shortwave and isentropic ascent are bringing thickening cloud cover along with some light showers moving into central Virginia and the central Shenandoah Valley. While these showers will continue to advance northward through the morning, they may tend to fall apart, or at least produce little measurable rain, as the airmass to the north will still need to saturate. The Baltimore metro area may stay dry until this afternoon. Overall, the showers will be off and on for most of the day. Rain may tend to fill in late this afternoon into tonight as secondary low pressure develops along the Carolina coast and moisture is advected northward toward the area. Instability through tonight will be very weak, with an isolated thunderstorm threat mainly limited to the mountains and our southern tier from central Virginia to southern Maryland. Forecast rain totals have trended down a bit. The greater chance for higher totals remains across Central Virginia and perhaps to southern Maryland, due to a combination of upslope flow into the Blue Ridge and closer proximity to forcing from the coastal low. The flood threat in this area remains marginal/isolated at best.

The highest temperatures today (mid 70s) may be across the Baltimore area where clouds will stay thinner longer. The areas already seeing showers will likely stay in the 60s. Lows tonight drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Saturated low levels may allow some patchy fog to develop, especially where there are breaks in the rain.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The coastal low will be moving northeast Wednesday while the upper level low slowly approaches from the west. The forecast has trended cooler and more stable thanks to the onshore flow.
This means rain may take the form of occasional light showers interspersed with drizzle, which has lowered rain amounts a bit.
Two day totals are now in the 0.25-0.75 inch range for much of the area, with 0.75-1.5 inches across the south. A chance of thunderstorms remains in the forecast for now, but it's quite possible any instability remains south and west of the area.
Temperatures likely remain in the 60s for most of the area. Rain should gradually wind down Wednesday night as the upper level trough axis passes, although low clouds likely stick around.

Thursday and Thursday night should feature a relative break in the action as a narrow upper ridge moves overhead and surface high pressure wedges in from the north. However, the now-stacked low off the coast won't be too far away, and it's possible clouds and a few showers continue to rotate westward into the area. A few showers could also form along the Alleghenies due to upslope flow. High temperatures will likely rebound into the 70s, but this will be contingent on cloud cover.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Weak high pressure Thursday gives way to another shortwave trough of low pressure Friday into the weekend. The overall weather patterns remains about the same with one day of dry conditions (i.e Monday and potentially Thursday this week) followed by 2 to 3 days of unsettled weather conditions.

Mid level ridging will slide east while the next upper level trough and low pressure system set to approach from the Ohio River Valley/Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday. With that said, model guidance continues to show subtle discrepancies in regards to to the timing of this system and placement of it's associated surface fronts across the region. Most of the recent 00z guidance suggests an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon and night as a warm front lifts through the area. A slow moving cold front and it's associated surface low will immediately follow Saturday into Saturday night bringing with it additional showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather does not appear to be a concern at this point although one or two strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out if CAPE/shear can be maximized within the peak heating period. Localized flooding could be the bigger concern given repetitive rounds of rain throughout the week and rich moisture flooding in along the slow moving warm front Friday into Friday night. PWATs are forecast to remain high the next 5-7 days, exceeding the 90th percentile, so rain efficiency will be high wherever/whenever it rains. No washouts are expected Friday or Saturday although rain gear will come in handy especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

Upper level ridging tries to build back into the area Sunday into Monday bringing slightly drier conditions. Another front will follow with renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Temperatures will continue to warm back above average during this time leading to the potential for greater instability for thunderstorm activity to feed off of. With a fairly active northern stream will continue to monitor for any severe weather or hydro threats within the extended period. Right now, there is no mention in the Day 4-8 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The first showers associated with the next low pressure system are advancing northward early this morning. These will likely be light in nature and may tend to dissipate as they approach the metro areas. A greater chance of showers will come this afternoon. Timing may need to be adjusted a bit. Also slowed down the progression of low ceilings, with MVFR conditions currently confined to western North Carolina. The light and occasional nature of the showers this morning likely won't contribute to a rapid decline in ceilings. However, MVFR is possible by this afternoon, with IFR becoming more likely tonight (timing faster for CHO). LIFR is also possible, with the greatest chance at CHO. A more widespread wave of rain may arrive during the late afternoon into tonight, having a better chance to reduce visibility. An isolated thunderstorm is possible at CHO and MRB this afternoon into tonight, but not a high enough chance to include in the TAF. South to southeast winds 5-10 kt expected through tonight.

Winds become east to north Wednesday and Wednesday night, which will likely lock in low ceilings. IFR may lift to MVFR during the day, only to lower again Wednesday night. Occasional showers and drizzle will continue before tapering off Wednesday night. A few thunderstorms are possible, but this chance seems to be decreasing.

There may be a break in activity on Thursday, but a few showers and low clouds may stick around with low pressure remaining stationary off the coast.

Sub-VFR conditions return Friday into Saturday as another upper level trough and series of fronts traverse the region. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase across the terminals especially Friday and Saturday afternoons. Slightly drier conditions and VFR return Sunday into Monday with weak mid level ridging overhead.
Additional sub-VFR conditions are possible Tuesday into Wednesday next week as another front and shortwave low pressure system cross the region.

MARINE
Winds have been trending downward early this morning, so will be canceling the Small Craft Advisory early. An occasional 20 knot gust could occur today, but overall winds should be sub- advisory. South-southeast winds increase once again late this afternoon and evening, with another SCA being issued for the Chesapeake and lower Potomac. Winds could gust slightly higher to around 24-28 knots in the open waters of the bay during this time. Isolated thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into tonight.

SCA conditions likely continue Wednesday through Thursday, at least along the bay, as low pressure becomes nearly stationary off the coast. Showers and an isolated thunderstorm will continue Wednesday before decreasing Wednesday night.

Marginal SCA conditions remain possible especially over the open waters of the bay and lower tidal Potomac Friday and Saturday. This is due largely in part to an area of low pressure and series of fronts crossing the region. Shower and thunderstorm will increase especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for portions of the waters if any strong storm capable of producing wind gusts of 35 knots develops

SCA conditions continue for portions of the waters Sunday and Monday due in part to the tightened gradient across the region. These conditions may expand into Tuesday and Wednesday as another shortwave low pressure system crosses the region.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
South to southeast winds through tonight will keep water levels elevated in the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac. Expect additional minor coastal flooding at high tide over the next 24-36 hours, especially at sensitive locations in Annapolis, Otter Point, DC Waterfront, and Straits Point.

As an area of low pressure moves east of the area Wednesday, winds become northeast, then north. This should result in quickly decreasing water levels and reduced coastal flood threat.

Beyond Wednesday, the next threat for coastal flooding appears to be Thursday and Friday as snap back occurs.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>532-539-540.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ533-534-537-541-543.

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Fredericksburg
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Tue -- 12:50 AM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:24 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:01 PM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:12 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

Aquia Creek
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Tue -- 01:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:39 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:37 AM EDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:22 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aquia Creek, Virginia, Tide feet

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