Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lavalette, WV
May 5, 2024 5:44 AM EDT (09:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:25 AM Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 3:57 AM Moonset 4:47 PM |
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 050754 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 354 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times this weekend. Active weather continues into next week, with daily chances for showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 350 AM Sunday...
Showers and isolated storms continue to progress across the area as a shortwave lifts northward early this morning. Some areas of fog are also developing in locations where skies have at least partially cleared and winds have calmed. Early morning fog should dissipate later this morning.
A brief lull in precipitation may occur around daybreak, then activity is expected to pick up once again as instability becomes moderate to strong for the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a strong system pivoting over Canada steers a cold front towards the area. The front should reach the CWA late today and then ease eastward overnight, with showers and storms remaining a possibility out ahead of and along the front.
SPC has included the northwestern quadrant of the CWA in a marginal severe weather risk for later today as isolated storms be capable of producing damaging winds or perhaps hail. Heavy downpours within storms could also cause localized flash flooding if they occur over locations that have already been subjected to high rainfall amounts.
High temperatures for today are expected to range from mid 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and 60s to 70s in the mountains.
Temperatures will then lower back into the 50s to 60s overnight.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 AM Sunday...
Key Points:
* Unsettled weather opens up the work week after a brief reprieve late Sunday night into early Monday morning.
* Temperatures gradually climb through the week, contributing to warm and muggy conditions that will help daily storm development.
After a brief lull in activity from late Sunday night into early Monday morning, active weather returns in earnest for the start of the new work week. Upper level ridging will be swept offshore as a trough and associated shortwave energy encroach from the west. This will usher in a surface southern stream disturbance through the course of the day Monday, making it as far north as the northern panhandle of West Virginia by the evening timeframe. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the wake of the end of weekend cold frontal passage, but dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will ensure an unstable environment for convection to prosper once more during peak heating hours on Monday. As has been the case the past several days, additional rainfall will continue to deplete flash flood guidance, and may impose localized concerns pending radar trends.
Unsettled weather remains intact on Tuesday as a developing system in the Upper Midwest latches onto the lingering southern stream disturbance loitering about along what will become a warm front. This will yield afternoon temperatures to climb back into the 70s and 80s and maintain the humid airmass still parked overhead. Shower and thunderstorm chances flourish once more through the day Tuesday, with similar hazards to monitor of local flash flooding and lightning within sprouting thunderstorms.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 315 AM Sunday...
Key Points:
* Daily chances for showers and storms remain present for the second half of the work week.
* Strong to severe storms may be possible Wednesday and Thursday, along with the growing concern for flash flooding.
* Cold front anticipated to sweep through by the end of the work week, but active weather remains even in its wake.
The daily chance for showers and storms shows no sign of giving up during the extended portion of the forecast. This will be under the guise of an upper level low over the Rockies continuing to pump moisture and shortwave energy through the heart of the country and into the Central Appalachians. A surface warm front will impose a steady climb in high temperatures, maxing out in the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday. Diurnally driven convection prevails within this warm and humid atmosphere, and could garner strong to severe characteristics by midweek as instability becomes more established over the area.
Heading into Thursday, convection coverage will become more prevalent as a cold front enters into the Ohio Valley. With warm and humid conditions preceding the boundary, coupled with increasing ascent as the front approaches, strong to severe weather could be present once more Thursday afternoon into the evening. However, models are still undecided on the placement of the front during optimal peak heating hours. Hydro concerns will also remain at the forefront of weather hazards as soil conditions continue to be tested by day to day heavy downpours from passing showers and storms. A grand total of over two inches of rain could be feasible for the forecast area between the time of writing (Sunday) and into next weekend.
The front is progged to sweep through sometime between Thursday night and Friday, but the post-frontal environment will still remain unstable in which active weather rolls into the weekend as well. Temperatures will trend cooler in the wake of the front.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 150 AM Sunday...
Isolated showers and storms will continue making their way across the area overnight. While VFR is currently present at most locations, sub-VFR flight conditions will be possible in storms. Low clouds and some areas of fog are also expected to reduce VIS/CIGs early this morning; however, confidence in extent of fog is low as development should be constrained to locations where winds turn calm and enough clearing occurs.
While lower clouds may linger over the mountains through the morning, VFR is generally expected for the lowland terminals after 12Z. Chances for scattered showers/storms and associated MVFR to IFR VIS restrictions persist throughout the day, with the greatest activity likely to be during the afternoon and evening hours.
5-12kt winds, with occasionally stronger gusts, continue along the mountains while flow has become calm to light to the west.
During the day, 5-12kt flow is expected to swing from a southerly direction to a west/southwest direction. Winds then weaken and become variable after 00Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and intensity tonight could vary from the forecast. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions are possible throughout the TAF period in heavier showers or any thunderstorms.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 05/05/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L L L H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L H H H M M M H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible at times in showers and thunderstorms into mid next week. Fog and/or low stratus are possible Sunday night and Monday night.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 354 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
Upper level waves bring showers and storms at times this weekend. Active weather continues into next week, with daily chances for showers and storms.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 350 AM Sunday...
Showers and isolated storms continue to progress across the area as a shortwave lifts northward early this morning. Some areas of fog are also developing in locations where skies have at least partially cleared and winds have calmed. Early morning fog should dissipate later this morning.
A brief lull in precipitation may occur around daybreak, then activity is expected to pick up once again as instability becomes moderate to strong for the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a strong system pivoting over Canada steers a cold front towards the area. The front should reach the CWA late today and then ease eastward overnight, with showers and storms remaining a possibility out ahead of and along the front.
SPC has included the northwestern quadrant of the CWA in a marginal severe weather risk for later today as isolated storms be capable of producing damaging winds or perhaps hail. Heavy downpours within storms could also cause localized flash flooding if they occur over locations that have already been subjected to high rainfall amounts.
High temperatures for today are expected to range from mid 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and 60s to 70s in the mountains.
Temperatures will then lower back into the 50s to 60s overnight.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 315 AM Sunday...
Key Points:
* Unsettled weather opens up the work week after a brief reprieve late Sunday night into early Monday morning.
* Temperatures gradually climb through the week, contributing to warm and muggy conditions that will help daily storm development.
After a brief lull in activity from late Sunday night into early Monday morning, active weather returns in earnest for the start of the new work week. Upper level ridging will be swept offshore as a trough and associated shortwave energy encroach from the west. This will usher in a surface southern stream disturbance through the course of the day Monday, making it as far north as the northern panhandle of West Virginia by the evening timeframe. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the wake of the end of weekend cold frontal passage, but dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will ensure an unstable environment for convection to prosper once more during peak heating hours on Monday. As has been the case the past several days, additional rainfall will continue to deplete flash flood guidance, and may impose localized concerns pending radar trends.
Unsettled weather remains intact on Tuesday as a developing system in the Upper Midwest latches onto the lingering southern stream disturbance loitering about along what will become a warm front. This will yield afternoon temperatures to climb back into the 70s and 80s and maintain the humid airmass still parked overhead. Shower and thunderstorm chances flourish once more through the day Tuesday, with similar hazards to monitor of local flash flooding and lightning within sprouting thunderstorms.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 315 AM Sunday...
Key Points:
* Daily chances for showers and storms remain present for the second half of the work week.
* Strong to severe storms may be possible Wednesday and Thursday, along with the growing concern for flash flooding.
* Cold front anticipated to sweep through by the end of the work week, but active weather remains even in its wake.
The daily chance for showers and storms shows no sign of giving up during the extended portion of the forecast. This will be under the guise of an upper level low over the Rockies continuing to pump moisture and shortwave energy through the heart of the country and into the Central Appalachians. A surface warm front will impose a steady climb in high temperatures, maxing out in the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday. Diurnally driven convection prevails within this warm and humid atmosphere, and could garner strong to severe characteristics by midweek as instability becomes more established over the area.
Heading into Thursday, convection coverage will become more prevalent as a cold front enters into the Ohio Valley. With warm and humid conditions preceding the boundary, coupled with increasing ascent as the front approaches, strong to severe weather could be present once more Thursday afternoon into the evening. However, models are still undecided on the placement of the front during optimal peak heating hours. Hydro concerns will also remain at the forefront of weather hazards as soil conditions continue to be tested by day to day heavy downpours from passing showers and storms. A grand total of over two inches of rain could be feasible for the forecast area between the time of writing (Sunday) and into next weekend.
The front is progged to sweep through sometime between Thursday night and Friday, but the post-frontal environment will still remain unstable in which active weather rolls into the weekend as well. Temperatures will trend cooler in the wake of the front.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 150 AM Sunday...
Isolated showers and storms will continue making their way across the area overnight. While VFR is currently present at most locations, sub-VFR flight conditions will be possible in storms. Low clouds and some areas of fog are also expected to reduce VIS/CIGs early this morning; however, confidence in extent of fog is low as development should be constrained to locations where winds turn calm and enough clearing occurs.
While lower clouds may linger over the mountains through the morning, VFR is generally expected for the lowland terminals after 12Z. Chances for scattered showers/storms and associated MVFR to IFR VIS restrictions persist throughout the day, with the greatest activity likely to be during the afternoon and evening hours.
5-12kt winds, with occasionally stronger gusts, continue along the mountains while flow has become calm to light to the west.
During the day, 5-12kt flow is expected to swing from a southerly direction to a west/southwest direction. Winds then weaken and become variable after 00Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog coverage and intensity tonight could vary from the forecast. Brief MVFR/IFR VSBY restrictions are possible throughout the TAF period in heavier showers or any thunderstorms.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 05/05/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H L L L H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L H H H M M M H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible at times in showers and thunderstorms into mid next week. Fog and/or low stratus are possible Sunday night and Monday night.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHTS TRISTATE/MILTON J FERGUSON FIELD,WV | 10 sm | 53 min | SE 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 64°F | 63°F | 94% | 29.97 |
Charleston, WV,
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