Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lavalette, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 7:50PM Monday March 27, 2017 10:17 PM EDT (02:17 UTC) Moonrise 6:15AMMoonset 6:30PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavalette, WV
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location: 38.3, -82.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 280149
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
949 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
Active, mild pattern continues in a parade of southern stream
systems. The current system crosses tonight into Tuesday, and
then another crosses late Thursday through Friday.

Near term /through Tuesday/
As of 940 am Monday...

no significant change.

As of 230 pm Monday...

a weak front remains stalled from west to east, along the ohio
river between ohio and kentucky, eastward through central wv,
this afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms were firing up south of the front,
especially over eastern kentucky, aided by a weak upper level
disturbance, a moisture feed from the southwest impinging upon
the front, and surface heating. All of this was leading to an
effective bulk shear axis of 40-45 kts extending up through
eastern kentucky, along with 1000-1500 j/kg of cape. This has
resulted in an earlier / faster severe weather threat, in
concert with the eastward forecast trends from spc.

North of the front, low level moisture has kept heating to a
minimum, helping to maintain a stout stable layer there until
the front moves north in increasing low level south to southwest
flow ahead of the main system approaching from the west this
evening.

The main system arrives tonight, after the loss of daytime
heating. While this may temper the severe threat somewhat,
associated organized convection associated with the main upper
level short wave trough, over the middle mississippi valley this
afternoon, may still pose a wind and excessive water threat, to
the degree it is able to hold together.

The system pulls off to the east Tuesday afternoon, leaving low
level moisture in the form of low clouds in its wake.

Near term temperature guidance resulted in slightly higher
values in the warm sector tonight, wet-bulbing into the mid and
upper 50s in the lowlands again, and slightly lower highs
Tuesday versus the previous forecast and the latest met/mav.

Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday night/
As of 305 pm Monday...

cold front moves away from the region with high pressure
building in from the north. In response... Precipitation chances
should come to an end by late Tuesday night.

Long term /Thursday through Monday/
As of 305 pm Monday...

another system approaches the area for Friday bringing
precipitation chances back into the region. This system should
then push east Friday night with high pressure building in again
Saturday night and Sunday. Expect chances for showers and storms
will decrease from the west on Saturday with the region expected
to be dry Saturday night.

Aviation /02z Tuesday through Saturday/
As of 755 pm Monday...

an upper level trough, and its associated surface low pressure
system and cold front, will bring numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the area tonight into Tuesday morning.

ExpectVFR ceilings with isolated showers and thunderstorms ahead
of an initial band of organized showers and thunderstorms this
evening, with mainly MVFR within this band along with possible
gusty winds; although some brief ifr vsby is also likely. Timing
of the initial band has it moving eastward across the area
between 01z and 08z, behind this band will be an area of mainly
rain showers and mostly MVFR conditions. Most of the rain
showers will move east of the ohio river by 13z Tuesday with the
front, and exit the low lands by 17z Tuesday, with lingering
mountain upslope rain showers through much of the afternoon.

Look for MVFR conditions to gradually improve from west to east
after 15z.

Prevailing winds outside of thunderstorms will be southerly 3 to
7 kts overnight, then becoming westerly 6 to 12 kts behind the
front during Tuesday.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Wednesday...

forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: timing of showers and storms this evening
may be an hour or two faster than forecast. There may be some post-
rain ifr fog and stratus later tonight into Tuesday morning,
especially if the winds go near calm.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Tue 03/28/17
utc 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
edt 1hrly 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
crw consistency h h h h h h m m m m h l
hts consistency h h h m m m m m m l l l
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h h m m l
ekn consistency h h h h h h h h h h h l
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h m l
after 00z Wednesday...

ifr possible in thunderstorms Friday.

Rlx watches/warnings/advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... Jsh/trm/jmv
near term... Trm/jmv
short term... Jsh
long term... Jsh
aviation... Jmv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV10 mi26 minESE 510.00 miThunderstorm Rain59°F55°F90%1011.9 hPa

Wind History from HTS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S5S7SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalm--3SW5S4SW6S5S75S3S4SW5E5
1 day agoE3CalmSE4S6S10S6SE4SE5SE4S4S8SW53SE7S10
G17
33S7S6S6S7S5S6S3
2 days agoS5S7SW10SW5SW4S4S4CalmSE3S3CalmSW4SW9S8SW3CalmS3S43E3CalmNE3NE5E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.