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FXUS61 KRLX 252330 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 730 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Surface high pressure provides dry weather today, with frost possible tonight. Warming trend Friday through the weekend.
Isolated showers Friday night into Saturday as a warm front crosses.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 730 PM Thursday...

Minor polishing of sky conditions and temperatures this evening to reflect current observations. Dry conditions continue through the night under the guise of high pressure, which may allow for some spots to observe frost Friday morning. Currently do not plan to make any changes to the inherited advisory, maintaining only our southeast Ohio counties with this issuance.

As of 300 PM Thursday...

A beautiful afternoon across the area courtesy of surface high pressure north of the region. After a morning filled with clouds (for some), mostly sunny skies have returned to the region amid chilly temperatures for this time of year. Highs will top out ~ 5-10 degrees below normal, with 60s across the lowlands, and mid 50s to low 60s in the mountains.

Another chilly night is ahead for the region amid mostly clear skies and relatively calm SFC-H850 flow. Given such, did significantly undercut guidance for overnight temperatures across much of the region, especially given afternoon mixing likely resulting in lower dew points than progged by guidance.
Low temperatures will be in the 30s for much of the lowlands, with the highest probability for low/mid 30s and resultant frost being across the northern portion of the CWA, with a Frost Advisory in effect for much of SE OH from midnight to 9 AM Friday. The typical cold spots there may dip below freezing late tonight. Further southeast, frost remains possible, particularly across the normal valley cold spots. Have issued an SPS for these locations. Upslope ESE flow results in stratus development along the eastern slopes of the mountains tonight.

After a frosty start for some, return flow on Friday results in a significant warmup across most of the forecast area amid increasing clouds later in the day. High temperatures top out in the 70s across the lowlands. The mountains remain cooler (50s)
courtesy of some lingering stratus. There is the potential for a few isolated showers in the Mid-Ohio Valley late in the day, but any showers that do develop may struggle to make it to the ground given dry BL conditions.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 1141 AM Thursday...

A strong ridge of high pressure overhead will bring high temperatures into the lower 80s across the lowlands and the 70s in the mountains Saturday. Dew point temperatures will be in the 50s, so it will feel like a comfortable warmth. Weak upper-level vorticity flowing around the ridge may spark a few afternoon and early evening thunderstorms, but severe weather is not expected.
Temperatures will fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s for overnight lows.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1141 AM Thursday...

The warming trend will continue into Sunday with most locations reaching the 80s by the afternoon, even in the mountains. Highs will reach the middle to upper 80s across the lowlands. Dry weather is anticipated with not much activity aloft to trigger thunderstorms. Near-record temperatures will be possible on Monday, especially in Parkersburg and Elkins where the current records are 86 (1991) and 87(1996), respectively.

A cold front will begin to approach from the west late Monday and into Tuesday. Rain chances will begin Monday evening across portions of southeast Ohio, spreading eastward across the remainder of the area into Tuesday. Because this cold front will pass Tuesday morning, it will be in the absence of peak daytime heating. Therefore, there doesn't appear to be much of a severe weather threat. However, stay tuned in case things change.

Behind the cold front, temperatures will still remain quite mild for mid-to-late week with highs projected to be in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 730 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions round out the evening under the establishment of high pressure. Low level stratus may once again develop along the spine of the Appalachians tonight, with embedded vsby restrictions, but does not look to impact our eastern terminals Friday morning. Dry weather prevails on Friday with VFR continuing amid a developing afternoon cu field.

Light and variable wind this evening becomes breezier out of the southeast on Friday, especially for airfields closer to the higher terrain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR CIG restrictions could occur late tonight at BKW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
Patchy IFR possible along the mountains Friday night into Saturday with low stratus.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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