Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Lavalette, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:19PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 2:00 AM EST (07:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:18PMMoonset 10:24PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lavalette, WV
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location: 38.3, -82.39     debug

Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 130630
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
130 am est Tue nov 13 2018

Low pressure tracks east of the area, while cold front crosses
overnight. High pressure Wednesday. Another low tracks over the
area Wednesday night through Thursday night. Cold front Sunday.

Near term through today
As of 130 am Tuesday...

one last wave will bring one last batch of precipitation
through the area early Tuesday morning. This was already
reflected to a degree in the forecast. Raised pops a little
lowered a little later Tuesday morning.

As of 640 pm Monday...

most of the heavy rain from today has shifted off toward the
east and into the mid-atlantic region, with the exception of a
stout band of moderate rainfall associated with the 850mb low
center moving up the lee of the appalachian spine. Further west,
winds continue to shift toward the north in response to an
approaching cold front.

Brought down temperatures a little faster than previously
forecast across ohio and in the proximity of the ohio river
given observed trends and reports of ice pellets reaching the
surface there. Also opted for more of a rain-sleet mix as
opposed to a rain-snow mix with forecast soundings indicating a
serious crystal growth struggle. Other than these small tweaks
the forecast remains mostly on track.

As of 223 pm Monday...

high resolution models show a developing sfc low pressure
center, tracking north northeast along the spine of the
appalachians tonight into Tuesday. This low pressure will
produce pcpn across the eastern half of the area, while the
fropa will produce additional light pcpn across northeast ky,
southeast oh, southwest va and the rest of wv. Coded categorical
pops per model consensus across the eastern half of the area
tonight. Increase pops from west to east accounting for fropa
pcpn tonight.

Vertical temperature profiles indicate warm layer aloft
dominating the pcpn type to all liquid. Models are in agreement
bringing strong cold air advection late overnight tonight under
northwest flow. However, expect low QPF along the cold front to
produce light rain showers. Perhaps, colder air filters in near
the sfc to produce a period of mixed rain and ice pellets or
snow spreading from west to east Tuesday morning. By mid day,
all pcpn will be transition back to liquid, expect upslope snow
over the northeast mountains, diminishing towards Tuesday
evening. However, amounts will be minimal, as precipitation will
be ending from the west at the time the best cold air moves
over the area.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the 30s, with freezing
temperatures over portions of southeast oh and northeast
mountains of wv. Highs on Tuesday will only increase few degrees
during the day, barely reaching the lower 40s central sections
of wv.

Short term tonight through Thursday night
As of 240 pm Monday...

5h trough digs across the great lakes as moisture pulls to the
east. We will see a slight rebound in height values into
Wednesday night as southern stream system makes its approach. A
warm-occluded front in association with nearly barotropic
southern stream low will track north Wednesday night and
Thursday. Secondary cyclogenesis takes place off the east coast
of the us to close out the period. A lot is going to hinge on
timing the precip onset Wednesday night, and how rapidly low
levels are scoured out west of the appalachian range. There are
considerable differences in how the models are handling the
details, mainly due to how fast they shift the cut-off low
northward. For the big picture, track and placement of system
points to a warm wedge working up through central WV and the oh
valley with considerable cold air damming occurring east of the
appalachians Wednesday night and Thursday. Have generally
trended toward the faster GFS model, in terms of how quickly
warmer air makes its way in. Still could see a period over
several hours where a wintry mix of precipitation occurs late
Wednesday and early Thursday. Atmospheric column warms up
considerably during the day on Thursday for a quick transition
to all liquid. However, some colder spots in elevated mountain
valleys may have some lingering -fzra into the daytime hours.

Since there is still some uncertainty in the models in these
dynamic conditions, have elected to hold of on possible

Long term Friday through Monday
As of 240 pm Monday...

afore-mentioned southern stream system pulls out Friday and
Saturday. The GFS is faster clearing the system, but lingering
showers over the east mountains will still be in play Saturday.

Then a cold canadian airmass settles in across the northern tier
of the us. Models generally agree that a cold front will sag
across the region Saturday night, furthering our chances for
some light snow, as 5h trough sweeps across the great lakes.

Tough axis shifts into the northeastern quadrant of the us by
Monday for continued unseasonably cool weather. Model blends
were accepted.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
As of 130 am Tuesday...

ifr at times in drizzle and fog overnight, along with one more
round of rain into early Tuesday morning, as another wave
passes. MVFR stratocu will persist through much of the day
Tuesday, before breaking up and clearing out Tuesday night
across the lowlands. Ifr stratus will persist longer into
Tuesday in the mountains, before improving to MVFR Tuesday
afternoon. MVFR ceilings will persist in the mountains Tuesday

Light northerly surface flow over the middle ohio valley, and
southeast flow in the central appalchians overnight will become
light northwest throughout the area Tuesday morning, and remain
so through Tuesday night, light to moderate southerly flow aloft
overnight will become light to moderate northwest Tuesday
morning, and remain so through Tuesday night.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 06z Wednesday...

forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: conditions will fluctuate overnight, mainly
between ifr and MVFR. Timing of improving ceilings Tuesday will

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Tue 11 13 18
utc 1hrly 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
est 1hrly 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency l h h h h h h l m h l h
bkw consistency h m l l m m h m l m m m
ekn consistency l h h h h m h m h h h m
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h m h h h h h h h h h m
after 06z Wednesday...

ifr possible in rain, freezing rain, snow and sleet overnight
Wednesday night, rain Thursday, and then in rain and snow
showers Thursday night into early Friday morning.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... Trm arj mpk
near term... Trm arj mc
short term... Kmc
long term... Kmc
aviation... Trm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Huntington, Tri-State Airport, WV10 mi70 minN 65.00 miFog/Mist39°F37°F93%1019.4 hPa

Wind History from HTS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmE3CalmNE5NE3N3NE5NE4NE6NE5E53N3N5N3N6N6
1 day agoCalmNE3E3CalmCalmE3E5NE3SE6NE3Calm3Calm3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4NW4NE3E3
2 days agoW7W86W6SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.