Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lavalette, WV
May 17, 2024 2:14 AM EDT (06:14 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:14 AM Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 2:07 PM Moonset 2:26 AM |
FXUS61 KRLX 170538 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 138 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase today and linger into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 135 AM Friday...
Models showing a band of precipitation moving into the area today, possibly aided by some afternoon heating later today. The moisture will remain over the area tonight as an upper level short wave enhances the chances of precipitation. Precipitable water values are in the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range. While not overly high, will have to keep an eye out for potential localized flash flooding as some areas are already fairly wet and locations could see multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 PM Thursday...
A southern stream developing surface low over the Midwest will advect toward the area first by lifting a warm front into the area and then putting us in the warm sector starting this period. Showers and storms should be prevalent by Friday evening, but activity should wane as the sun goes down into the overnight. The surface low, supported by a small short wave upper level trough, will setup directly west of us just like the last system that came through in the beginning of the week.
The low is forecast to take a direct pass overhead just as the last feature did and slowly exit Sunday morning. Between that time numerous rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms could be expected with excessive rainfall being the main threat to the area. We were mainly primed with the last system and now that we will have weak flow again we may have issues with hydro, especially under slow moving or training storms. Since the threat will be from scattered convection across the area, a watch will likely not get issued for some instances of isolated flash flooding, however we will have to keep an eye out still.
Cloudy skies and weak cold air advection will keep temperatures subdued at seasonable or just below.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 200 PM Thursday...
By late Sunday morning, the aforementioned low will have kicked out toward the east, but the lagging parent trough will slowly move overhead throughout the day. Surface high pressure will then build in from the northeast, believe it or not, and hold settled weather across the area for Monday. Upper level ridging will then move in from the west late Monday and hold settled weather into Tuesday. Thereafter, we cannot rule out diurnal shower and storm activity into Wednesday. By mid day Wednesday, models have a frontal boundary sweeping through the area which will promote unsettled weather if the mid to long rang models are correct. This feature should be a quick mover opening up Thursday to a nice settled high pressure day. With high pressure and mainly clear skies with southerly flow expect temperatures to be on the increase this period where Monday through Wednesday will mainly be above seasonable.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 135 AM Friday...
Some dense fog could form early this morning where rainfall occurred on Thursday. A cloud deck in the mid levels will also be moving in from the west early this morning and could cause the fog to dissipate early.
Models show a band of showers and thunderstorms moving into the region today. After fog lifts early this morning, any IFR restrictions should be confined to showers and thunderstorms.
Some MVFR cumulus is possible for a while late this morning and early this afternoon.
An upper level disturbance will provide additional showers and thunderstorms Friday night. Any holes in the clouds could also allow for fog to form.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog forming and dissipating early this morning could vary. Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today could vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/17/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L M L L L L H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L L L M L L M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L M M M L L M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in rain showers and thunderstorms Friday night into the weekend.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 138 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase today and linger into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 135 AM Friday...
Models showing a band of precipitation moving into the area today, possibly aided by some afternoon heating later today. The moisture will remain over the area tonight as an upper level short wave enhances the chances of precipitation. Precipitable water values are in the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range. While not overly high, will have to keep an eye out for potential localized flash flooding as some areas are already fairly wet and locations could see multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 200 PM Thursday...
A southern stream developing surface low over the Midwest will advect toward the area first by lifting a warm front into the area and then putting us in the warm sector starting this period. Showers and storms should be prevalent by Friday evening, but activity should wane as the sun goes down into the overnight. The surface low, supported by a small short wave upper level trough, will setup directly west of us just like the last system that came through in the beginning of the week.
The low is forecast to take a direct pass overhead just as the last feature did and slowly exit Sunday morning. Between that time numerous rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms could be expected with excessive rainfall being the main threat to the area. We were mainly primed with the last system and now that we will have weak flow again we may have issues with hydro, especially under slow moving or training storms. Since the threat will be from scattered convection across the area, a watch will likely not get issued for some instances of isolated flash flooding, however we will have to keep an eye out still.
Cloudy skies and weak cold air advection will keep temperatures subdued at seasonable or just below.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 200 PM Thursday...
By late Sunday morning, the aforementioned low will have kicked out toward the east, but the lagging parent trough will slowly move overhead throughout the day. Surface high pressure will then build in from the northeast, believe it or not, and hold settled weather across the area for Monday. Upper level ridging will then move in from the west late Monday and hold settled weather into Tuesday. Thereafter, we cannot rule out diurnal shower and storm activity into Wednesday. By mid day Wednesday, models have a frontal boundary sweeping through the area which will promote unsettled weather if the mid to long rang models are correct. This feature should be a quick mover opening up Thursday to a nice settled high pressure day. With high pressure and mainly clear skies with southerly flow expect temperatures to be on the increase this period where Monday through Wednesday will mainly be above seasonable.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 135 AM Friday...
Some dense fog could form early this morning where rainfall occurred on Thursday. A cloud deck in the mid levels will also be moving in from the west early this morning and could cause the fog to dissipate early.
Models show a band of showers and thunderstorms moving into the region today. After fog lifts early this morning, any IFR restrictions should be confined to showers and thunderstorms.
Some MVFR cumulus is possible for a while late this morning and early this afternoon.
An upper level disturbance will provide additional showers and thunderstorms Friday night. Any holes in the clouds could also allow for fog to form.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog forming and dissipating early this morning could vary. Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today could vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/17/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H L M L L L L H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L L L M L L M H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L M M M L L M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in rain showers and thunderstorms Friday night into the weekend.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHTS TRISTATE/MILTON J FERGUSON FIELD,WV | 10 sm | 23 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 61°F | 88% | 29.86 |
Charleston, WV,
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