Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bodega Bay, CA

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What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:11PM Thursday September 20, 2018 1:28 AM PDT (08:28 UTC) Moonrise 4:11PMMoonset 1:40AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 826 Pm Pdt Wed Sep 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 6 to 9 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft.
PZZ500 826 Pm Pdt Wed Sep 19 2018
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... High pressure over the eastern pacific combined with thermal low pressure over the interior will keep gusty northwest winds through Thursday. Winds will decrease late in the week as the high weakens and the thermal trough shifts to the coast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bodega Bay, CA
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location: 38.31, -123.07     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 200537
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
1037 pm pdt Wed sep 19 2018

Synopsis A warming and drying trend will continue into
Thursday as onshore flow weakens and a brief period of offshore
flow occurs in the hills. Gusty northerly winds at higher
elevations will result in enhanced fire weather concerns from
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, primarily across eastern
napa county but also locally elsewhere in the north bay mountains,
east bay hills, and santa cruz mountains. Temperatures are
expected to moderate slightly over the upcoming weekend but will
remain slightly above seasonal averages. A renewed warming trend
is then possible during the first half of next week as high
pressure builds near the west coast.

Discussion As of 9:15 pm pdt Wednesday... The warming trend
that got underway today was most pronounced in the north and east
bay where afternoon highs today were as much as 13 degrees warmer
than on Tuesday. High pressure building inland to our north has
been turning our winds to a more northerly direction and mixing
drier air into the low levels. The result was complete clearing of
low clouds from the coast by late in the day. A few patches of
fog may develop along the coast overnight, but given the strong
northerly gradient from acv to sfo (currently 8.5 mb), we can
expect clear skies to prevail across nearly our entire forecast
area overnight.

Primary concern in the short term is the expected increase in
northerly winds overnight, primarily in the hills. Winds will be
strongest once the low level inversion develops later tonight.

Wind gusts of up to 40 mph are possible in the hills of eastern
napa county late tonight and into Thursday morning. Locally gusty
winds are also likely elsewhere in the hills. Gusty winds,
combined with low humidity and very dry fuels, will create
critical fire weather conditions above 1000 feet in the north bay
mountains, east bay hills and santa cruz mountains. See fire
weather discussion below for more details.

Dry northerly flow in the hills, along with strengthening high
pressure aloft, will mean a continuation of our warming trend into
Thursday. Expect another 5 to 10 degrees of warming, or more,
throughout or region on Thursday, with some of the warmest inland
areas expected to see temperatures reach into the 90s. Although
winds in the hills will be offshore, the models forecast winds
near sea level to remain weakly onshore. Thus, temperatures in
coastal areas should remain rather mild with highs not expected
to climb out of the 70s tomorrow.

Latest WRF and ECMWF models indicate that a southerly surge is
possible along our coast late Thursday night into Friday. If these
models are correct, temperatures will cool significantly in most
coastal locations on Friday as fog and low clouds make a return.

Also, some valleys will see cooling on Friday if southerly flow
develops, most notably the north bay valleys. The GFS is not
buying off on the southerly surge idea, at least not yet, and it
forecasts very little temperature change on Friday, even at the
coast. Whichever model verifies, the inland valleys and hills are
expected to remain warm into Friday.

Some cooling is likely over the upcoming weekend as an upper
trough moves inland to our north and we see a slight increase in
onshore flow. However, the models have been trending the track of
this upper trough farther to the north and latest model guidance
indicates only slight cooling over the weekend, with temperatures
now expected to remain at least slightly warmer than normal.

Renewed warming then looks likely during the first half of next
week as an upper ridge builds near the west coast. However, the
details of our weather during the extended forecast period are
tough to pin down given model differences. Will need to be wary of
the potential for gusty offshore winds during the early part of
next week. Current models do not indicate much in the way of winds
next week, but this is something we will need to keep an eye on
given the warm and dry conditions that are expected.

A forecast update was completed earlier this evening to increase
fog and low clouds along the coast on Friday, and to warm
temperatures during the extended forecast period.

Aviation As of 10:40 pm pdt Wednesday... Increasing offshore
flow will keep clearVFR conditions in the sfo bay area through
Thursday. Models indicate some low-level moisture could produce
late night clouds in southern mry bay late tonight but given that
clouds were disorganized this morning and the drying trend latest
forecast keepsVFR in the mry bay area. Gusty winds over the north
and east bay hills may produce llws around oak above 2000 feet
Thursday morning.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR.

Sfo bridge approach... .Similar to sfo.

Monterey bay terminals... .Vfr.

Fire weather As of 8:50 pm pdt Wednesday... Building high
pressure to the north of the district is turning winds in the
hills to a northerly direction which is bringing drier air into
the region. Winds thus far have not been all that strong and are
currently gusting no higher than about 20 mph in the hills.

However, the expectation is that northerly winds in the hills will
increase overnight, especially after midnight, as a low level
inversion develops. According to the latest WRF model, winds in
the hills will be strongest between about 3 am and 11 am Thursday
when gusts at the higher elevations of eastern napa county could
reach as high as 40 mph. Gusty north winds are expected locally
elsewhere in the hills later tonight and into Thursday morning,
including the remainder of the north bay mountains, the east bay
hills, and santa cruz mountains. Winds in these other higher
elevation locations are not expected to be as strong as across
eastern napa county, but even moderate and gusty winds combined
with expected very poor humidity recoveries overnight and very dry
fuels will result in critical fire weather conditions tonight and
into Thursday. A red flag warning is in effect for the north bay
mountains, east bay hills and diablo range, and santa cruz
mountains from 11 pm this evening until 5 pm Thursday.

Winds are forecast to decrease on Thursday afternoon, but the
airmass will remain very dry with minimum humidity values expected
to drop as low as the single digits on Thursday afternoon. Very
dry air will persist in the hills on Thursday night and into
Friday but winds are expected to be light.

Slightly cooler conditions are forecast over the weekend, but
longer range models indicate renewed warming during the first half
of next week as high pressure strengthens near the west coast.

Marine As of 10:36 pm pdt Wednesday... High pressure over the
eastern pacific combined with thermal low pressure over the
interior will keep gusty northwest winds through Thursday. Winds
will decrease late in the week as the high weakens and the
thermal trough shifts to the coast.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tngt Sca... Pt reyes to pigeon pt 0-10 nm until 3 am
sca... Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm until 3 am
sca... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm
sca... Pigeon pt to pt piedras blancas 10-60 nm
sca... Pt pinos to pt piedras blancas 0-10 nm
sca... Pt arena to pt reyes 0-10 nm
public forecast: dykema
aviation: W pi
marine: W pi
fire weather: dykema
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46013 - Bodega Bay - 48NM North Northwest of San Francisco, CA 14 mi28 min NW 21 G 25 51°F1010.4 hPa (-0.8)
PRYC1 - 9415020 - Point Reyes, CA 22 mi40 min 54°F1009.9 hPa
46214 - Point Reyes, CA (029) 33 mi28 min 53°F10 ft
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 40 mi28 min NW 12 G 14 55°F 53°F1010.7 hPa (-0.4)
46237 - San Francisco Bar, CA (142) 43 mi58 min 57°F5 ft
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 44 mi40 min 64°F
TIBC1 - Tiburon Pier, San Francisco Bay, CA 44 mi47 min Calm 61°F 1010 hPa
DPXC1 - 9415141 - Davis Point, San Pablo Bay, CA 46 mi40 min 64°F 1009.7 hPa
FTPC1 - 9414290 - San Francisco, CA 47 mi46 min 56°F 59°F1010.4 hPa
PPXC1 - 9414847 - Richmond (Point Potrero), CA 47 mi40 min 61°F 1010.4 hPa

Wind History for Point Reyes, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Rosa, Santa Rosa Sonoma County Airport, CA20 mi35 minN 410.00 miFair53°F46°F77%1009.2 hPa

Wind History from STS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW335S6S11S8S7S7S4SE3CalmCalmW3N4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE3CalmCalm54SW3S7S7S10S8SE12S10S5S3CalmS3CalmSE4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalm43S7SE6S12S7S6SE9SE12SE9SE5SE3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bodega Harbor entrance, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Point Reyes, California Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sacramento, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.