Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dahlgren, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:55PM Friday February 22, 2019 7:50 AM EST (12:50 UTC) Moonrise 9:40PMMoonset 8:57AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 638 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of rain, mainly this morning.
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sat..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft...building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Showers likely.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt... Diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 3 ft...subsiding to 1 ft after midnight.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 638 Am Est Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A front will stall across the carolinas through tonight as high pressure builds to the north toward new england. Low pressure developing over the middle mississippi river valley will strengthen as it moves northeastward across the great lakes into canada this weekend. High pressure will build from the northern great plains toward the great lakes and eventually into the northeast through the first half of next week. Gale conditions are likely over the waters Sunday into Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren, VA
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location: 38.31, -77.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 220815
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
315 am est Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis A front will stall across the carolinas through
tonight as high pressure builds to the north toward new
england. Low pressure developing over the middle mississippi
river valley will strengthen as it moves northeastward across
the great lakes into canada this weekend. High pressure will
build from the northern great plains toward the great lakes and
eventually into the northeast through the first half of next
week. Low pressure developing over the tennessee valley could
approach the region during the middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
The dew point gradient is the best way to discern a subtle boundary
moving southward across the mid-atlantic early this morning. The
main surface front temperature gradient is draped across central
north carolina. Both of these boundaries will sink southward and
stall through the day today.

A weak wave of low pressure passing to our south will likely
continue to force a bit of light rain across central virginia and
far southern maryland until about mid morning, after which time
northerly winds should push rain to the south, limiting to the i-64
corridor through the rest of the day.

Lots of mid and high level clouds are expected today in overrunning
well north of the stalling surface boundary, and should keep highs
generally in the lower to middle 40s.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
Surface high pressure will be building to the north over upstate new
york and into new england tonight (~1035 mb). This is an ideal spot
to lock in some cold air near the surface, but the antecedent
airmass isn't abundantly cold. Temperatures are expected to fall to
around freezing for elevations above 1500 feet tonight, and across
northern maryland, the eastern west virginia panhandle and
northwestern virginia.

Precipitation likely holds off until after daybreak Saturday, except
perhaps across west-central virginia, which should allow
temperatures to rise some. Still, freezing rain seems likely at
least across the ridgetops along and west of the blue ridge and into
western maryland, possibly the eastern west virginia panhandle
Saturday morning through about midday. This is as precipitation
develops in strengthening overrunning ahead of a deepening surface
low over the midwest.

Continued warm advection should push temperatures above freezing
Saturday afternoon, though some hi-res guidance like the 00z nam
nest wants to hold onto freezing temperatures over the ridges until
Saturday evening. Lower elevations should see all rain (except
perhaps over northern maryland near the pennsylvania border).

The latest guidance has trended southward a bit with the heaviest
precipitation amounts Saturday night, likely in part due to high
pressure to the north nosing some drier low-level air into the
region. Strong warm air advection may overcome this some, but the
best upper jet forcing is displaced to our northwest closer to the
parent surface low (likely to track over lake michigan Saturday
night). This could help keep rainfall amounts near or a little under
one inch, but even that could result in minor flooding given
saturated ground and recent snowmelt, particularly over eastern west
virginia this weekend.

There may be a few heavier showers along the approaching cold front
early Sunday morning. I could see the warm front never truly making
it fully through the area given the high to the north and the parent
low being so far west, but Sunday is still expected to be very mild
since appreciable cold air advection lags well behind the surface
front, and downsloping westerly flow compressional warming should
push highs well into the 60s. Winds will likely be very gusty Sunday
with a strong pressure gradient behind the front, possibly reaching
or exceeding advisory criteria (greater than 45 mph).

Long term Monday through Thursday
The weather pattern will be largely dominated by a broad trough
aloft across eastern north america and strong canadian high
pressure at the surface. As a result, temperatures will stay
cooler than normal and it will be much drier than it has been
lately. On Monday, a tight pressure gradient will still exist
over the region associated with a deep cyclone over atlantic
canada, but the winds will not be as strong like on Sunday, but
still windy nonetheless. Overall, fair weather is expected much
of next week but on the chilly side.

Aviation 07z Friday through Tuesday
MainlyVFR today. MVFR INVOF cho should lift around mid morning,
though spotty -ra may linger into this afternoon. CIGS expected to
lower to ifr by late Saturday as a warm front slowly approaches from
the south, with rain overspreading the area Saturday afternoon. Some
freezing rain is possible near mrb Saturday morning, if
precipitation moves in quickly enough while temperatures are still
near or below freezing. Winds will generally be N to NE AOB 10 kts.

Vfr likely returns by Sunday afternoon with gusty W winds 35+
kts.

Still windy on Monday with gusts likely in the 25-35 kt range.

Winds diminish further on Tue but still breezy with gusts in
the 15-25 kt range.

Marine
A subtle uptick in northerly winds is possible early this morning
behind a weak moisture boundary pressing southward. An isolated 18
knot gust is possible during this time. Otherwise, generally light
north to northeast flow is expected through Saturday night.

Rain is expected to overspread the waters Saturday into Saturday
night as the aforementioned boundary returns north as a warm front.

Whether or not the warm front makes it through the waters before a
cold front approaches from the west by Sunday morning remains to be
seen, but there is moderately high confidence in gale force winds
later Sunday into Sunday night in westerly flow behind the
front.

Marginal gales will still be possible on mon. Otherwise, strong
sca conditions mon-mon evening. SCA conditions possible again on
tue and wed.

Hydrology
Given recent snowmelt and saturated ground, three quarters of an
inch to around an inch of rain may be enough to result in minor
flooding issues this weekend, particularly over eastern west
virginia. The overall trend has been for slightly less rain, but not
so much less to completely avoid a flood threat. Despite the
slightly lower QPF totals in the 00z model suite, mmefs still
indicates >50% chance of minor flood at several river forecast
points later this weekend.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
vaz503.

Wv... Winter weather advisory until 10 am est this morning for
wvz505.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Dhof
short term... Dhof
long term... Lfr
aviation... Lfr dhof
marine... Lfr dhof
hydrology... Dhof


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 1 mi56 min NNW 4.1 G 6 46°F 41°F1026.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 30 mi56 min WNW 4.1 G 4.1
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 32 mi50 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 44°F 40°F1026.5 hPa (+2.4)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 36 mi50 min N 9.9 G 11 44°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 38 mi140 min N 1 41°F 1026 hPa41°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi50 min WNW 1.9 G 1.9
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 39 mi50 min N 5.1 G 8

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA19 mi54 minWNW 610.00 miOvercast43°F42°F97%1027.9 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA21 mi55 minNNW 510.00 miRain43°F43°F100%1027.1 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA22 mi75 minN 510.00 miLight Drizzle44°F43°F99%1028.1 hPa

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm--S4S6S3CalmS3CalmCalmS6S5CalmW4NW5NW4NW7CalmCalmCalmNE4NW3NW6CalmNW6
1 day agoSE6SE10SE5E5E9SE8S4SE6N5CalmE5NW45N4--NW4CalmSW3CalmSW3SW3Calm----
2 days agoN10N10N10
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N9N9NE93N3N6N5N3CalmNE4E3CalmCalmE5SE6SE8S9E6E9

Tide / Current Tables for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia
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Dahlgren
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Fri -- 04:56 AM EST     1.83 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:56 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:19 AM EST     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:22 PM EST     1.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:40 PM EST     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.30.20.71.31.71.81.71.30.80.2-0.2-0.5-0.4-0.10.411.51.71.71.40.90.4-0.1-0.4

Tide / Current Tables for Mathias Point, Virginia
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Mathias Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:45 AM EST     1.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:56 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:24 PM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:13 PM EST     1.39 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.10.30.81.21.41.41.30.90.60.3-0-0.2-0.20.10.511.31.41.310.70.40.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.