Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stanardsville, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:23PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 6:33 PM EDT (22:33 UTC) Moonrise 10:16PMMoonset 7:13AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 440 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
Rest of this afternoon..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 440 Pm Edt Tue May 21 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build overhead through tonight before moving offshore Wednesday. A warm front will approach the waters Wednesday night before passing through Thursday. A cold front will stall out near the waters late this week. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters late Wednesday night through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stanardsville, VA
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location: 38.31, -78.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 211823
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
223 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
Canadian high pressure will build overhead through tonight
before moving offshore Wednesday. A warm front will pass through
the area Wednesday night into Thursday. A cold front will
approach Thursday night before stalling out nearby for Friday
and Saturday. The boundary may hang around nearby for the rest
of the weekend into early next week, causing the possibility of
unsettled conditions.

Near term through tonight
Canadian high pressure will continue to build overhead through
tonight, bringing cool conditions for this time of year along
with low humidity. There will be some high clouds moving through
in the westerly flow aloft, but with the upper-level ridge axis
to our west... The cloud deck should be thin due to subsidence.

Max temps this afternoon will range from the 60s in the
mountains to the lower and middle 70s across most other
locations. Min temps tonight range from the 40s in the colder
valleys and rural areas to the mid upper 50s in downtown
washington and baltimore.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
The high will slowly move offshore Wednesday and a southerly
flow will develop during the afternoon. There will be a slight
increase in atmospheric moisture due to the southerly flow and
warm advection. This may result in a thin stratocu deck
underneath the subsidence inversion, but there should still be
plenty of sunshine as well since the thin layer should mix out
from daytime heating. MAX temps will be in the lower to middle
70s for most locations.

The high will continue to move offshore Wednesday night and a
warm front is expected to approach the area from the west
overnight. The warm front will pass through the region Thursday
morning. Weak isentropic lift and limited elevated instability
ahead of the warm front may be enough to trigger a few showers,
especially overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. A rumble
of thunder cannot be ruled out as well, but confidence is low at
this point since the lifting mechanism will be weak.

For Thursday afternoon, a southwest flow behind the warm front
will bring a return to hotter and more humid conditions. Max
temps will top off well into the 80s for most areas, and some
areas may even approach 90 degrees. The increased heat and
humidity will lead to an unstable atmosphere, and with our area
between an upper-level high to the south and upper-level low to
the north, there should be moderate amounts of deep layer shear.

At the same time, a cold front will be approaching from the
north but latest guidance keeps this boundary well to our north
during peak heating before it drops down later Thursday night.

Therefore, the timing of the boundary and peak heating are
offset a bit. Having that been said, it will be a differential
advection pattern (northwest flow aloft and southwest flow at
the low-levels), which supports the development of convective
systems (mcs). Will carry the chance for showers and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, and with the
instability and shear in place, some of those storms could be
severe. However, confidence still remains low due to uncertainty
in timing of a convective system and also with the cold front
arrival being after peak heating.

The boundary will settle overhead late Thursday night, and a
shower is possible, but most areas will likely be dry due to the
loss of heating.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
Upper level ridging will remain centered over the southeastern
Friday and Saturday. Meanwhile, a cold front will be located
near or south of the area Friday. With ridging shunted to the
west, this should lead to slightly cooler and less humid
conditions. A narrow ridge of surface high pressure will move
overhead Friday night.

A low pressure system will be moving north of the great lakes on
Saturday. The system's warm sector will translate eastward
through the day, although there's some uncertainty if the upper
ridge will remain strong enough to suppress any convection. The
best chance of any showers and storms will be over the terrain
and closer to the pennsylvania border. The shortwave trough
aloft will suppress the ridge to the south, resulting in a more
zonal flow aloft across the mid atlantic for the second half of
the weekend. This will slow the cold front's southward progress
and allow it to waver across the area into early next week. This
will result in mainly diurnal chances of showers and
thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. There's some consensus on
another shortwave being able to shove the front south by
Tuesday, with high pressure to follow (briefly). With the
absence of any strong pushes of canadian air, temperatures will
likely run above normal through early next week.

Aviation 17z Tuesday through Saturday
North to northwest winds will diminish late this afternoon.VFR
conditions are expected through Wednesday. A few showers are
possible overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, and an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out but confidence is low.

There is a chance for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening, and if storms develop they have the potential to become
severe. However, confidence remains low at this time.

High pressure will provideVFR conditions for Friday and much of
Saturday. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible by Saturday
and Sunday afternoons, with the highest chance near mrb at this
time.

Marine
A northwest flow will gradually diminish late this afternoon.

There may be a brief pressure surge overnight into early
Thursday morning and winds from the northeast may gust close to
sca criteria across the middle portion of the bay. However,
confidence is too low for an SCA at this point.

Southerly winds will develop around the departing high
Wednesday. A warm front will pass through the water late
Wednesday night through Thursday morning before another cold
front from the north stalls out near the waters Friday. A small
craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters late
Wednesday night through Friday.

Strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening, but confidence for them to
occur is low at this time.

Northwest winds behind a cold front may result in SCA conditions
on Friday. High pressure will bring lighter winds Friday night
before turning southwesterly Saturday. Another cold front will
approach on Sunday, with wind direction and speeds of lower
confidence due to its slow movement. A stray thunderstorm could
also occur during this time.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for
anz530>543.

Synopsis... Bjl
near term... Bjl
short term... Bjl
long term... Ads
aviation... Bjl ads
marine... Bjl ads


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 83 mi39 min NNW 4.1 G 13 72°F 69°F1017.8 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA12 mi40 minENE 810.00 miFair76°F50°F40%1016.3 hPa
Orange, Orange County Airport, VA19 mi58 minNNE 710.00 miFair72°F44°F38%1017.3 hPa
Staunton / Shenandoah, VA24 mi63 minNE 810.00 miFair73°F51°F47%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from CHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr33NW3NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4N4NW4CalmN7N4N5655N7NE7Calm--NE8
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S11S10S11S9S8S8S8S9S11S7S10S8S7SW7S8S9SW4SW10W7644
2 days ago4NE6N4NW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3E4Calm3S4SW6S10
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G26

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:19 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:45 AM EDT     3.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:10 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:26 PM EDT     3.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.510.60.30.41.12.133.53.63.32.721.40.90.40.10.31.122.73.13

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:35 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:36 AM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:26 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:17 PM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.40.90.60.30.30.81.82.63.13.12.82.31.81.30.80.40.20.20.81.72.42.72.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.