Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 2:47 AM   Moonset 2:03 PM

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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1035 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening - .
Rest of today - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the night. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers after midnight. Tue - SW winds 5 kt - .becoming s. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1035 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a cold front will move south of the waters today with northeast winds strengthening through early next week. Cloudy and showery conditions are expected through the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday night into Monday.

FXUS61 KLWX 031349 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 949 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front will cross the area today before sinking south Saturday. The boundary will return north as a warm front Sunday into Monday before secondary cold front approaches and stalls near the area for the middle portion of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure remains centered over the New England coast this morning while an upper-level ridge axis is slowly moving off to our east. An upper-level trough is building over the central CONUS. A backdoor cold front is currently located near the I-81 corridor into central Virginia this morning.

The backdoor boundary will most likely stall out near the area through this afternoon before eventually pushing off to our south and west tonight as high pressure strengthens along the New England Coast.

As convergence strengthens along the backdoor boundary this afternoon/evening, this will combine with peak heating and moisture advection (southerly flow aloft around periphery of the high), triggering some showers and a few thunderstorms over the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands into the Shenandoah Valley. This activity will likely advect eastward into the metro areas late this evening and overnight. Low clouds and noticeably cooler conditions are expected overnight as the onshore flow continues behind the backdoor cold front. Lows will be in the 50s for most areas, with upper 40s in portions of northern Maryland.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A series of weak upper level perturbations will move across the region over the weekend gradually eroding the ridge pattern and allowing moisture to deepen, particularly during the Saturday night and Sunday time frame. Expect a gloomy and soggy weekend with off and on showers through Sunday evening. Rainfall amounts are likely to exceed one inch over the entire weekend. The lack of instability suggests that rainfall rates will be manageable.
Also, the long duration of the event should allow for the ground to absorb much of the rain without causing much in the way of flooding problems.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A cold front draped across the region Monday and Tuesday will bring unsettled weather to the forecast area. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are possible both days with atmospheric conditions peaking each afternoon and into the evening. Ample moisture aloft (PWATS 1.5in-2 in) will allow for heavy rainfall rates at times.
Beginning Tuesday, the focus will be on the parent low pressure system as it begins to lift northward through the Great Lakes region. The cold front draped over the forecast area will begin lifting northward as a warm front while the associated cold front approaches from the Plains. From Tuesday through the remainder of the long term period, the forecast area will be in the warm sector allowing for an increasing threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. In addition to the severe weather threat, isolated instances of flooding are possible due to recent weekend rainfall possibly saturating soils. We will continue to monitor this system as is approaches.

Temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s Monday and Tuesday with overnight low temperatures expected to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
In the wake of the warm front, temperatures rise into the 80s for most Wednesday and Thursday. Those at higher elevations will stay in the upper 70s each day.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR through 06Z Sat, then rapidly lowering cigs overnight to IFR/LIFR as onshore flow develops. Off and on rain/showers develop Saturday and persist through Sunday with prevailing IFR conditions persisting through early next week.

Reduced CIGs and VSBYs are possible during showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. Outside of showers and thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected along with light winds 5-10 knots and gusting up to 15 knots. Winds will be out of the south each day.

MARINE
SCA conditions will continue to develop into this afternoon, likely persisting through Monday as onshore flow strengthens.
However, there may be a lull in the SCA winds later tonight into Saturday as the gradient briefly subsides behind a backdoor boundary. Rain/showers will be widespread both Saturday and Sunday, but the threat of thunder will remain low.

Showers and thunderstorms will impact the waters both Monday and Tuesday as southerly winds stay below SCA criteria. As a warm front moves over the waters, winds increase to just below SCA criteria Tuesday night.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Onshore flow will strengthen today and persist through early next week. This will raise water levels and keep them elevated through early next week causing minor tidal flooding for many locations. Moderate tidal flooding is possible around Annapolis and St. Marys County with the high tide cycle late Saturday night, and again late Sunday night into Monday morning.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ017.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>534- 537>543.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ535-536.

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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:29 AM EDT     3.15 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:28 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:52 PM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:57 PM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

Massaponax
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:20 AM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:44 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:43 PM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:13 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

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