Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stanardsville, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:59PM Thursday February 21, 2019 4:38 PM EST (21:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:35PMMoonset 8:28AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 336 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Rest of this afternoon..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely.
Fri..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 336 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will stall out well to our south through Friday night while high pressure builds to the north. The boundary will return north as a warm front Saturday through Sunday while stronger low pressure passes through the great lakes. A cold front will pass through the waters late Sunday and high pressure will return for early next week. A small craft advisory will likely be needed for the waters Sunday and Monday, and a gale warning may be needed for portions of the waters late Sunday through Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stanardsville, VA
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location: 38.31, -78.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 212031
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
331 pm est Thu feb 21 2019

Synopsis
Surface high pressure will continue to build toward the region
tonight, but an upper-level disturbance will also pass through.

High pressure will continue to build toward the region Friday
through Friday night from the north. Low pressure will track
through the midwest Saturday and the great lakes Sunday. The
warm front associated with the low will approach Saturday into
Sunday before the cold front associated with the low passes
through late Sunday. High pressure will return for early next
week and low pressure may impact the area during the middle
portion of next week.

Near term through tonight
A weak cold front will continue to push to our south and east
through late this afternoon while high pressure approaches from
the north. Low clouds and fog have mixed out across most areas,
so some sunshine will allow for the strong inversion to mix
out... Leading to a mild afternoon.

High pressure will continue to build toward the area from the
north tonight, but an upper-level disturbance is expected to
pass through in the west to southwest flow aloft. Our area will
be in the right entrance region of a large upper-level jet that
separates an upper-level trough over the rockies and the
subtropical ridge over the southeastern conus. The large scale
lift associated with the upper-level jet should combine with the
upper-level disturbance to provide enough lift for a period of
rain tonight, especially late tonight across central and
southern areas (including the washington metropolitan area).

Rainfall amounts should be light given the fact that little
moisture will be associated with this system.

For the potomac highlands of virginia and pendleton county in
west virginia, there should be enough of a cold layer from
evaporative cooling, causing the likelihood for a period of
freezing rain. Elsewhere, temperatures should remain above
freezing or precipitation is not expected when temperatures are
below freezing.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
High pressure will continue to build in from the north Friday
through Saturday while a cold front stalls well to our south
over the southeastern conus. A couple upper-level disturbances
will pas through in the westerly flow aloft Friday through
Friday night. For most of the area, dry conditions will persist
with just some high and mid-level clouds and it will be
seasonably chilly. However, across central virginia into
southern maryland there may be some light rain with these
systems. Confidence is low at this time since the stronger lift
and overrunning will be to our south, closer to the boundary.

Low pressure will track through the midwest Saturday and into
the great lakes Saturday night. The cold front well to our south
will begin to retreat north as a warm front late Saturday and
Saturday night, but it will remain well to our south. However,
the low and mid-level flow will turn southerly and this will
allow for warm and moist air from the gulf of mexico to overrun
the low-level colder air in place. This will increase the
chances for rain during this time, and with copious amounts of
moisture in place some rain may be locally heavy, especially
later Saturday and Saturday night.

Will have to watch for the possibility of a period of freezing
rain across northern maryland into the allegheny and potomac
highlands blue ridge mountains. Temperatures will be near
freezing when precipitation is arriving and light ice
accumulations are possible.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
A cold front will move through our region during the day on
Sunday. Winds will continue out of the south leading to
continued advection of warm and moist air into our region.

Models are showing pwats reaching above a inch and close to a
inch and a half in some areas. This is pretty high for february.

This suggest a lot of moisture to fuel rain as the front passes
through. There is pretty good agreement that the cold front
should be through our area by Sunday evening with winds becoming
westerly. As temperatures rise and rain will be likely along
with snow melt, there will be a concern for flooding on Sunday
and continuing into early Monday.

High pressure is expected to build into our region Monday through
early Wednesday. Upslope induced showers will be possible over the
higher elevations early on Monday. An upper level trough over
canada is forecast to dip southward into the central united
states and the great lakes region. A shortwave associated with
this trough will move to our north kicking off a surface low
that moves through pa. Another low will move through the
southeast us and then shift of the eastern sea board. Showers
will be possible on Wednesday as the low moves to our north.

Aviation 17z Thursday through Monday
High pressure will continue to build from the north through late
this afternoon, andVFR conditions are expected. Northwest winds
may gust around 15 to 20 knots across the northern terminals
before sunset.

A period of rain is expected for kcho and likely for kiad and
kdca later tonight, and MVFR conditions are possible. Drier air
should hang around for kmrb.

High pressure will bringVFR conditions for Friday and Friday
night, but lower clouds and increasing chances for rain are
expected Saturday and Saturday night.

Rain will be likely on Sunday as a cold front moves through our
region. Strong winds will be possible out of the south and will
become westerly by the evening periods. Subvfr conditions are likely.

On Monday, skies will clear with winds continuing out of the west.

Vfr conditions expected at this time.

Marine
A brief pressure surge behind a cold front an increased mixing
will cause northwest winds to gust around 20 knots this
afternoon over the northern portions of the chesapeake bay. A
small craft advisory is in effect for these areas. The SCA may
need to be extended into the upper tidal potomac river, but
confidence is too low at this time. Winds should remain below
sca criteria tonight through Saturday, and probably Saturday
night as high pressure builds in from the north.

On Sunday, rain will move through the waters with winds out of the
south. Winds will likely reach above small craft advisory levels
with the potential for a gale warning.

Monday, winds will remain elevated out of the west. Small craft
advisories will likely be needed again with gale warnings
possible.

Hydrology
Some melting and sublimation of the snowpack is ongoing today,
and will continue (but to a much lesser extent) tomorrow, with
temperatures above freezing. Streams are already above their
normal levels for february, but the snowmelt will elevate them
even further.

The next system affects us over the weekend, basically all in the
form of rain. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected,
with the range of possibilities being from a half inch to
perhaps over 2 inches. If there's still snow on the ground, and
especially if the higher rainfall amounts are realized, this
combination would produce flooding both on small and larger
streams starting Saturday through possibly early next week. The
tipping point all winter for experiencing flooding has been
about 1.25-1.5 inches of rain, and we are right around that
range for the forecast.

Our official forecast already takes opequon creek in west
virginia above flood stage on Sunday morning, but it is too
early for issuance of a flood watch at this time, particularly
given the snowpack uncertainty.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm est this afternoon for
anz530>532-538>540.

Synopsis... Bjl
near term... Bjl
short term... Bjl
long term... Jmg
aviation... Bjl jmg
marine... Bjl jmg
hydrology... Je


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 83 mi63 min WNW 6 G 9.9 57°F 41°F1017.7 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 95 mi129 min NNW 4.1 56°F 1017 hPa41°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlottesville-Albemarle Airport, VA12 mi46 minN 410.00 miFair68°F48°F49%1015.8 hPa
Orange, Orange County Airport, VA19 mi64 minNE 610.00 miFair52°F44°F77%1016.9 hPa
Staunton / Shenandoah, VA24 mi64 minW 610.00 miFair63°F31°F31%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from CHO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N3SE3CalmCalm4CalmS5S5S7S8S9S4SW3S3CalmCalmS4S4S4CalmS53N4
1 day agoNE6NE6E4E3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmN4NE8E5NE3NE4SE7NE6NE6E6NE4CalmN4
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NW3N3NW4NE4NW7N3N33--N5NW3CalmCalmNE5E5NE5NE63N7NE7E9E6

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
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Thu -- 03:09 AM EST     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:23 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:24 AM EST     3.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:31 PM EST     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:31 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:50 PM EST     3.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.4-0.1-0.5-0.20.71.82.73.23.12.71.91.20.5-0-0.4-0.40.21.42.43.13.32.92.3

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:25 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:15 AM EST     2.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:23 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:47 PM EST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:31 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:41 PM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.4-0.1-0.4-0.30.51.62.42.82.72.31.71.10.50.1-0.3-0.40.11.12.12.72.82.52

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.