Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dahlgren Center, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:28PM Monday March 27, 2017 10:40 AM EDT (14:40 UTC) Moonrise 5:54AMMoonset 6:08PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1031 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Rest of today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers late this morning...then isolated showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1031 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will push through the mid atlantic this morning. A cold front is expected to cross the chesapeake bay region Tuesday night. High pressure will build across the waters for midweek, followed by a low pressure system moving towards the region on Friday. Small craft advisories are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday behind the cold front, and again on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren Center, VA
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location: 38.32, -77.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 270858
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md/washington dc
458 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
A warm front will positioned over southern virginia will
track north through the mid atlantic this morning. A cold front
will cross the area late Tuesday. High pressure will build over
the region Thursday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Given ground observations and traffic cams showing dense fog
over the northeastwastern part of the forecast area a dense for
advisory has been issued. It runs through 9 am.

Overnight surface analysis shows low pressure centered over
michigan with a warm front extneding down the appalachians into
northern nc. The result for this forecast area is - overnight
easterly winds, low clouds, fog, drizzle.

The front is expected to progress northward through the mid
atlantic this morning. Light rain will be possible as the front
makes its move; afterwards warming is expected as the spring
temperature roller coaster brings us back upward: yesterday only
reached the upper 40s, it may take some time but expect this
afternoon to reach the mid 70s over much of the region.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Wednesday/
While we will be forecasting "chance of showers" overnight
believe for the most part the nighttime hours will be dry. If it
does the best chances will probably be late ahead of the
approaching short wave. Lows generally in the mid 50s.

Tuesday could see thunderstorm activity as the shortwave tracks
through the mid atlantic. SPC has placed much of the forecast
area east of the mountains in a marginal risk of severe storms.

Neither the CAPE or helicity look particularly impressive for
us.

Chances for precipitation should be ending Tuesday evening as
the shortwave moves off the coast. High pressure will return
overnight and for Wednesday. Back on the roller coaster...

temperatures Wednesday should be almost ten degrees cooler than
the previous two days.

Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/
High pressure will be building into the northeastern united states
Wednesday night, sliding east on Thursday. This will lead to drier
and cooler weather, although still near climatological normals. Good
radiational cooling night Wednesday night will lead to widespread
lows in the 30s, with highs rebounding back through the 50s on
Thursday.

Meanwhile, a strong closed low will be moving northeastward out of
the southern plains on Thursday, into the mid-mississippi valley
Thursday night, and towards the mid atlantic states by later Friday,
becoming vertically stacked and gradually weakening. Model guidance
is in relatively good agreement with this progression and timing. As
the system makes its way to the eastern seaboard, some redevelopment
off of the mid-atlantic coastline Friday night into Saturday morning
is also projected.

Therefore, chances for rain showers increase Thursday night into
Friday morning with initial warm air advection, followed by bulk of
the rainfall likely coming Friday and Friday night with main frontal
push and any subsequent redevelopment. A drying trend should develop
on Saturday, with the chance for some lingering showers as the low
pulls away. High pressure will then build in for Sunday.

Temperatures in the Thursday night - Sunday time period will be
relatively seasonal, skewing slightly above normal. Lows will be
mainly in the 40s. Highs coolest on Friday in the 50s with
clouds/showers, rising into the 60s for the weekend.

Aviation /09z Monday through Friday/
Very poor early morning conditions as the mid atlantic sits on
the north side of a warm front. Lifr conditions will persist
until at least sunrise. After that the level of improvement and
the speed of it will be dependent upon the how fast the front
pushes to the north as well as how much the Sun can work on the
low level moisture. This will need to be watched.

But conditions are expected to reachVFR this afternoon. There
will be chances of rain showers late tonight at all taf
sites..And then possible thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Dca
has the best chance for strong gusty winds.

Vfr Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Vfr expected Wednesday night and Thursday, but chances for sub-vfr
conditions increase Thursday night and Friday with rain and low
clouds as next system moves into the area. Winds light Wednesday
night into Thursday will increase out of the southeast later
Thursday and Friday.

Marine
Winds have been below SCA levels so far overnight. Pushed the
sca back to after sunrise when the warm front is expected to
make a rapid advance north through the waters.

Thuderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon, some of which
could produce smw level winds. This will need to be monitored.

Sub-sca conditions expected Wednesday night and Thursday. Potential
for SCA then increases Thursday night and Friday with increasing
southeasterly winds ahead of an approaching system.

Lwx watches/warnings/advisories
Dc... Dense fog advisory until 9 am edt this morning for dcz001.

Md... Dense fog advisory until 9 am edt this morning for mdz004>006-
011-013-014-016>018-503>508.

Va... Dense fog advisory until 9 am edt this morning for vaz038>040-
050>057-501-502-505-506.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 9 am this morning to 6 pm edt this
evening for anz533-534-537-541>543.

Products... Woody!/mjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 0 mi41 min Calm G 1 51°F 50°F1018.4 hPa (-0.4)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 29 mi41 min SW 8 G 9.9
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi41 min SW 8.9 G 12 56°F 47°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 35 mi41 min SE 1.9 G 4.1 48°F 1019.3 hPa (+0.0)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi31 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 47°F 1019.6 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 37 mi41 min SW 9.9 G 12 64°F 51°F1018.5 hPa (+0.0)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 38 mi41 min S 5.1 G 6 49°F 49°F1018.4 hPa (-0.7)
44042 - Potomac, MD 42 mi31 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 56°F 1018.2 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA19 mi45 minSE 33.00 miFog/Mist49°F48°F100%1019.4 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA23 mi66 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist52°F51°F100%1019 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA23 mi46 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist51°F51°F100%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E7NE8NE9E9SE7E6E8E6E7E6E6NE5E6E6E4NE3NE3E5E3NE4SE3CalmSE3
1 day agoS10S12S5S11S11S9S12S6SW5SW5SW6S7SW7S5SW7NE15NE12NE9E10E10E9E8E7E8
2 days agoS11SW13SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia
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Dahlgren
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:06 AM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:29 AM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:28 PM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:44 PM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81.31.71.91.81.410.50.1-0.2-0.20.10.51.11.51.81.81.51.10.60.1-0.1-0.2-0

Tide / Current Tables for Colonial Beach, Potomac River, Virginia
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Colonial Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:38 AM EDT     1.86 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:03 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:01 PM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:17 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.51.81.81.61.20.80.3-0-0.2-0.10.30.81.31.61.81.71.30.90.40-0.2-0.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.