Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dahlgren Center, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 7:58PM Thursday April 27, 2017 2:41 PM EDT (18:41 UTC) Moonrise 6:23AMMoonset 8:27PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 132 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight...
This afternoon..S winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day, then showers and tstms likely through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 132 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak cold front will cross the waters tonight. A backdoor cold front will move south across the chesapeake bay region Sunday morning. A stronger cold front will cross the region from the west Monday night. A small craft advisory is possible Monday into Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren Center, VA
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location: 38.32, -77.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 271819
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md/washington dc
219 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017

Synopsis
A weak cold front crosses the area from the west tonight. High
pressure over the area Friday, then dropping off the southeast
coast Saturday. A cold front will move over pennsylvania
Saturday night before lifting north. A cold front will move
through the region from the west Monday night.

Near term /tonight/
After watching low clouds/fog slowly dissipate both of the last
two mornings this pattern should not repeat itself tonight. A
weak cold front will move west of the appalachians this
evening... Reaching the bay around midnight. Showers can be seen
on regional radar across wv. Given that low clouds have eroded
temperatures are now climbing into the upper 70s/lower 80s.

Neither CAPE nor helicity look particularly good but SPC has
placed much of the western half of the forecast area in marginal
risk, and wpc has placed the area just west of our forecast
area in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. Given the slow
movement of the line the latter may be the greater concern for
the evening shift team, but there is stronger convection over
ga/sc which may rob the line further north of energy.

Have chance pops/isolated thunderstorms forecast for the entire
area this evening.

Lows ranging from the upper 40s in the highlands to the mid 60s
in the cities. Much of the area will drop to 55-60.

Short term /Friday through Saturday night/
Weak front will move offshore Friday morning. Light fog is
possible but not expected to be as dense/widespread as previous
two nights.

We will be in a warming trend heading into the weekend as high
pressure strengthens off the sc coast. This will pump warm air
into the mid atlantic, and by Saturday temperatures will have a
decent shot at topping 90.

The record temperatures for april 29 - we'll be close to these
values:
highs MAX high min
dca 91 68
bwi 91 67
iad 87 62

Long term /Sunday through Thursday/
High pressure to the southeast will break down with a warm front
sliding northward across the d.C. Area Sunday into Sunday night.

There is a chance for showers and a thunderstorm, mainly Sunday with
the warm front nearby.

An increasing southerly wind will usher in warmer and more humid air
to help fuel showers and thunderstorms, mainly Monday afternoon and
evening ahead of a strong cold front. A few thunderstorms could
contain strong winds.

Gusty westerly winds and drier and cooler air will filter into the
region Tuesday and Tuesday night behind the cold front as high
pressure builds in from the west.

High pressure moves offshore Wednesday, while keeping conditions
dry. A return flow will be an indication that a new warm front will
try to push across the region late Wednesday into Thursday.

The Thursday storm system that is expected to develop along the warm
front could intensify over the ohio valley before sending energy
eastward into the mid-atlantic later in the day Thursday.

Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/
Vfr through the afternoon/early evening. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible at TAF sites this evening. These
are expected to weaken while progressing east of the mountains.

Light fog possible Friday morning thenVFR at all sites Friday
into Saturday.

MVFR to ifr conditions expected Sunday and Sunday night with showers
and a thunderstorm in the area near mrb, iad, mtn and bwi terminals.

Vfr conditions elsewhere. Ifr to lifr conditions Monday and Monday
night with showers and thunderstorms. Winds east 5 to 10 knots
Sunday, southerly 5 to 10 knots Sunday night, then southwest 10 to
15 knots Monday, and southwest 10 knots Monday night.

Marine
Sca is in effect for all waters but is not currently occuring
anywhere. Will leave up but let evening shift consider if this
should remain. There is an approaching boundary but it is not
very strong - showers/isolated thunderstorms will be possible
around midnight.

No marine hazards expected Sunday and Sunday night. Small craft
advisories possible Monday and Monday night. Winds east 10 knots
Sunday, southeast 10 knots Sunday night, increasing southwest 15
knots gusts 20 knots Monday, and southwest 10 to 15 knots Monday
night.

Tides/coastal flooding
The evening high tide cycle is the lower of the two so no
coastal flood threat. Later shifts will have to contemplate the
Friday morning high tide.

Lwx watches/warnings/advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Friday for anz531>534-537-
539>541-543.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz530-535-
536-538-542.

Products... Woody!/klw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 0 mi41 min S 8 G 15 80°F 67°F1008.4 hPa (-2.1)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 29 mi41 min SSE 8 G 8
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi41 min ESE 13 G 15 69°F 60°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 35 mi41 min S 7 G 8 63°F 1010.5 hPa (-1.8)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 36 mi131 min SE 6 71°F 1010 hPa61°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi31 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 65°F 1010.1 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 37 mi41 min SSW 9.9 G 12 78°F 65°F1009.4 hPa (-2.0)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 38 mi47 min S 8 G 9.9 76°F 64°F1008.4 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 42 mi31 min SSE 14 G 14 66°F 1008.9 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA19 mi45 minSSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F66°F74%1009.2 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA23 mi46 minS 8 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F63°F51%1008.5 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA23 mi46 minS 8 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F60°F53%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E6CalmE5NE5SE4S7S7S5SE5SE4SE3CalmSE3CalmNW3E3E3------S4S7SW4
1 day agoNE16NE14NE16NE13NE9NE8NE6N8N8N7N5N7N8N8N10N8NW7N7N9N7NE7N4E6E8
2 days agoNE12NE10N10NE7NE14
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G23

Tide / Current Tables for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia
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Dahlgren
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:16 AM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:45 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:37 PM EDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:48 PM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.91.62.12.32.21.91.30.80.2-0.1-0.200.511.51.81.91.61.20.70.2-0.1-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Colonial Beach, Potomac River, Virginia
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Colonial Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:49 AM EDT     2.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:18 AM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:10 PM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:21 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.61.21.82.22.32.11.61.10.50.1-0.1-0.10.20.71.31.71.91.81.510.50-0.2-0.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.