Monday, May27, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dahlgren Center, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:23PM Monday May 27, 2019 7:01 AM EDT (11:01 UTC) Moonrise 1:26AMMoonset 12:40PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 436 Am Edt Mon May 27 2019
Rest of the overnight..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 436 Am Edt Mon May 27 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A weak boundary will remain stalled out near the waters today. The front will then lift back north Tuesday as high pressure off the southeastern united states coast regains control through the middle of the week. A weak cold front will stall out near the waters late in the week. A small craft advisory may be necessary for portions of the waters on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dahlgren Center, VA
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location: 38.32, -77.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 270808
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
408 am edt Mon may 27 2019

Synopsis
A front will stall across the area today before lifting
northward again Tuesday. Bermuda high pressure sets up toward
the middle portion of the week, resulting in hot and humid
conditions over much of the eastern united states.

Near term through Tuesday
Latest analysis places a cold front across far southern
pennsylvania. The front will enter northern maryland shortly,
but is expected to come to a halt across our forecast area.

Cooler air behind the front will make some inroads into the
region, but temperatures today will remain on the plus side of
normal, with low 80s common. Most of the day will feature rising
heights behind a shortwave which passed overnight, and with
clouds likely to keep insolation below peak levels, the end
result will be that instability will be much lower than
yesterday. The end result should be a much quieter day weather-
wise, with a few scattered showers and perhaps a stray
thunderstorm popping up, but no severe weather expected.

Tonight should start out quiet. However, later at night a
shortwave approaching from the west combined with the front
starting to lift back north with warm advection will result in a
rising risk of showers. In fact, some cams indicate the risk of
a MCS developing to our west and moving into the region late
tonight or early Tuesday. Am not sold on this idea yet, but have
increased pops and included a chance of thunder across much of
the region. Lows will generally be in the 60s.

After any morning showers MCS moves eastward in the morning, the
sun should return Tuesday afternoon as the warm front lifts
north of the region. Temperatures should return to the vicinity
of 90 in much of the region. Some weak trailing energy may
combine with much higher instability and shear to result in a
few severe thunderstorms during the afternoon, with the greatest
risk being closer to the pa border.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
Ridge aloft strengthens Tuesday night, squashing any lingering
convection and keeping temperatures mild. Warm advection should
continue for a time Wednesday, allowing highs to reach the low
90s in much of the region. With high humidity as well,
instability will become high once again by afternoon, with
notable shear as well. An approaching shortwave should seal the
deal, resulting in another round of potentially severe
thunderstorms. Once again, the risk will be highest to the north
near the pa state line. Convection should wane after dark, with
a mild and quiet late night once again.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
The latter portion of next week and into the weekend will
feature above normal temperatures and multiple opportunities for
scattered showers thunderstorms.

Upper level ridging will still be in place across the
southeastern us on Thursday, although a flattening of the ridge
will allow for a frontal system to approach and cross into the
region Thursday night. This will bring increased chances for
some showers thunderstorms later Thursday and Thursday night.

Temperatures will be well above normal Thursday out ahead of the
front, with highs likely reaching into the 90s.

The front will then stall near or just south of the region for
Friday and into next weekend leading to continued opportunities
for some isolated to scattered showers thunderstorms.

Temperatures will be cooler, but remain above normal, with highs
in the 80s.

Aviation 08z Monday through Friday
PrimarilyVFR expected through the week. Although some brief
reductions in showers storms are possible each day with a
frontal boundary near the region. Odds are lowest today, with a
greater risk on Tuesday both early and late, and a risk
primarily confined to the afternoon hours Wednesday through
Friday. Patchy fog could occur at the more rural terminals
during the middle and latter portion of the week, but clouds
will likely keep fog at bay this morning and again Tuesday
morning.

Marine
Winds should remain below SCA levels today with a stalled front
in the area. Front lifts back north on Tuesday, and some
southerly channeling is indicated. Gusts may reach low end sca
levels, but confidence not yet high enough for issuance. Winds
likely diminish again on Wednesday with the front well north.

In addition, special marine warnings may be necessary both
Tuesday and Wednesday due to potential for strong thunderstorm
development.

Sca conditions are possible Thursday and Friday with frontal
boundary near the region. Isolated to scattered
showers thunderstorms are also possible.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Mm
aviation... Mm rcm
marine... Mm rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 0 mi38 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 69°F 75°F1012.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 29 mi32 min N 7 G 8.9
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi32 min NNW 5.1 G 6 70°F 72°F1012.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 35 mi32 min N 8 G 11 71°F 1013.8 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 36 mi38 min N 7.8 G 7.8 71°F 1013.8 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 37 mi38 min NW 6 G 7 72°F 73°F1013.1 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 38 mi32 min NW 4.1 G 7 72°F 74°F1014.1 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 42 mi44 min N 5.8 G 5.8 72°F 73°F1012.2 hPa

Wind History for Piney Point, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA19 mi66 minN 410.00 miFair71°F66°F84%1013.9 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA23 mi67 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F67°F100%1015.2 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA23 mi67 minN 01.50 miFog/Mist0°F0°F%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S3S4S5S7S4S4S6S7SW5W14S5CalmNW8CalmCalmNW7NW8--S7NW5N6NW4N4
1 day agoE3SE4S7S6SW5S7S5SE10SE9SE8SE12SE16SE11SE7S11S11SW5S11NE6S7S6NW3NW3Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia (2)
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Dahlgren
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Mon -- 02:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:11 AM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:38 AM EDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:36 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:15 PM EDT     1.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.10.70.50.40.50.711.31.51.61.61.51.10.80.50.40.30.50.81.21.51.61.7

Tide / Current Tables for Mathias Point, Virginia
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Mathias Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:06 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:21 AM EDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:31 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:58 PM EDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.210.80.50.40.30.40.50.811.21.31.21.10.80.60.40.30.30.40.60.91.11.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.