Tuesday, September18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Ocean City, MD

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Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 7:06PM Tuesday September 18, 2018 5:15 PM EDT (21:15 UTC) Moonrise 2:29PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ650 Coastal Waters From Fenwick Island De To Chincoteague Va Out 20 Nm- 408 Pm Edt Tue Sep 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm edt this evening...
Through 7 pm..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W late in the evening, then becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 11 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 4 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Thu..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds, subsiding to 4 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds in the afternoon.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 4 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 408 Pm Edt Tue Sep 18 2018
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front will cross the waters late today into tonight. High pressure builds over the area for the latter half of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Ocean City, MD
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location: 38.34, -75.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 182010
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
410 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the area this evening, then push off
the coast overnight. High pressure builds into the area Wednesday
through Friday. A cold front approaches from the north Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
As of 245 pm edt Tuesday...

ongoing convection continues this evening along and ahead of the
frontal boundary. Likely pops across the east early, lowering to chc
pops by late evening. Drier air from the west results in clearing
skies after midnight. Lows mid 60s west to lwr 70s along the coast.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Friday
As of 245 pm edt Tuesday...

a warm drier airmass overspreads the area Wed thru Fri as high
pressure builds in from the nw. Expect mostly sunny warm days,
mstly clr mild nights. Highs Wed in the mid-upr 80s, upr 70s-
lwr 80s thurs and 80-85 fri. Lows in the 60s to nr 70 se.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 245 pm edt Monday...

models show a frontal boundary stalling across the mid atlantic
region with ripples of low pressure moving east along it through the
period. The two will be the focus for daily pcpn chcs. Will carry
chc pops each day, trying not to time any wave this far out in
time. The boundary will try to sag farther south Tuesday as high
pressure moves across the nern states. Pops a bit lower Tuesday.

Highs Sat in the low-mid 80s, mid 70s-mid 80s Sun mon, upr
70s-mid 80s tues. Lows in the 60s to near 70 se.

Aviation 20z Tuesday through Sunday
As of 200 pm edt Tuesday...

sct shwrs tstrm quickly developing out ahead of a cold front
this afternoon. Appears best chcs for these over the next few
hrs will be at ric sby then track towards the sern TAF sites
closer to sunset. Thus, will carry vcsh at ric sby with the
guidance showing a 2-3 hr window for a tstrm btwn 20z-23z,
then btwn 21z-00z across the SE with gusty SW winds 15-25 kts
out ahead of it. Kept CIGS vsbys in the MVFR range with this
forecast and will amend as necessary as the convection moves se.

The front pushes offshore arnd midnight with skies clrg and winds
shifting to the nnw.

Outlook: high pressure builds in for the mid week period with a
return to mainlyVFR conditions.

Marine
As of 400 pm edt Tuesday...

latest marine observations show that southwesterly flow continues
with 10-15 knots in the bay, increasing into the 15-20 knot range
for the coastal waters. The remnants of florence have been absorbed
by a larger synoptic trough which is approaching the area with an
associated cold front. SCA are still in effect for the northern
coastal water zones. Will drop the SCA for the mouth of the bay zone
at 6pm but have extended the SCA the northernmost zones until 10pm
to cover a slightly slower reduction in wave height across the
eastern edges of these zones.

Winds will begin to become northwesterly and gusty as the
aforementioned cold front traverses the area late this afternoon and
this evening. Cannot find a whole lot in the way of model support
for SCA conditions in the bay with the winds in the wake of the
front this evening overnight but a definite surge of increased winds
is evident. Winds are expected to top out just under SCA levels so
will not be issuing any additional hazards with this package. As the
northwesterly flow begins to subside after sunrise Wednesday we will
have a well deserved period of relatively quiet marine conditions.

We will have to watch the coastal zones once again for sca
conditions due to larger waves with northeasterly flow Wednesday
night and into Thursday but have held off on introducing any hazards
at this point due to low confidence. After this period high pressure
is expected to build into the region with generally lighter winds
and seas than we have seen of late.

Hydrology
As of 400 pm edt Tuesday...

river flood warnings have been issued updated for the meherrin
river at lawrenceville, the appomattox river at mattoax, the
rivanna river at palmyra, and the james river at bremo bluff
and cartersville.

Richmond westham and city locks are expected to reach into
minor flood stage later today but have held off on issuing
warnings for now as there is still time to monitor trends in
these locations.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 200 pm edt Tuesday...

coastal flood statement continues for elevated water levels
along the albemarle sound.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz654.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for anz650-
652.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Mpr
aviation... Mpr
marine... Rhr
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 1 mi34 min SW 8 G 8.9 80°F 77°F1007 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 22 mi26 min 16 G 18 76°F5 ft1006.3 hPa (-1.4)
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 31 mi34 min WSW 6 G 8.9 82°F 76°F1005.9 hPa
44089 42 mi16 min 78°F4 ft
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 44 mi28 min 78°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 45 mi28 min N 5.1 G 7 79°F 1006.7 hPa

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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NE6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD3 mi23 minWSW 610.00 miOvercast83°F73°F72%1006.3 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD22 mi22 minW 810.00 miOvercast82°F73°F74%1006.6 hPa

Wind History from OXB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr55--5S7
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1 day agoE10E11E10E9E6E6E8SE8SE8SE7SE8SE8SE8SE9SE95SE7S5SE8
G14
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G14
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2 days agoNE12
G19
NE10NE8NE9
G16
NE7E9NE8E10E10E9E7E7NE7E9E8E10
G18
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NE9NE10E11E11

Tide / Current Tables for Keydash, Isle of Wight Bay, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Fenwick Island Light, Delaware
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.