Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lusby, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 4:48PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 12:57 AM EST (05:57 UTC) Moonrise 11:08AMMoonset 9:40PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 1236 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Overnight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se late. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ500 1236 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A ridge of high pressure will gradually build in from the southwest and persist through Thursday. A large area of low pressure will approach the waters late Friday into Saturday. Small craft advisory conditions will be possible Friday afternoon and likely Friday night into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lusby, MD
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location: 38.35, -76.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 120211
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
911 pm est Tue dec 11 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the region through Thursday
night. A large area of low pressure will impact the area at the
end of the week bringing widespread rain and potential for
flooding.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Upper level trough and low level frontal feature will cross the
area late this evening and overnight. There has been a steady
march southward of lower clouds this evening behind this
feature, and while this should begin break up in westerly flow
as it drops south of the md pa border, it will likely bring a
period of scattered-broken cloud cover for areas north west of
the metros, especially across northern western md. Upslope
clouds will also likely increase along and west of the allegheny
front as the night progresses. In addition, a strong field
exists aloft, and some of this has been able to make it down to
the surface, with 35kt gusts observed at petersburg and 15-20kt
gusts at cumberland and martinsburg. These gusts are likely
peaking now, being enhanced by some downslope flow, and while
these gusts are not expected to be observed further east, there
will be more boundary layer flow as compared to the prior night.

Thus, while another cold night is expected, temperatures are
forecast to be a bit milder than last night, with lows largely
20-30f, except some teens where temperatures do manage to
decouple (central shenandoah valley and the piedmont of va run
the best chances of this). Some high clouds will also begin to
encroach on the region by Wednesday morning.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday night
High clouds during the morning, turning sunnier in the
afternoon. An upper level disturbance will move across michigan
into the eastern great lks Thu morning. Warm air advection could
result in some very light precip late Wed night into thu
morning. Moisture is very limited and forcing is weak, so only a
trace to a couple of hundredths of an inch expected. While temp
profiles favor snow, moisture is shallow below -10c which may
favor more fzdz than snow. However, model soundings do not show
any saturation at the sfc. Any precip should end by 15z Thu if
not sooner.

Dry Thu and Thu night. Next chance of precip with potent srn
stream system will start moving into our southwest after 12z fri
and spread through the rest of the CWA Fri afternoon. Any threat
for fzra would be very short lived with little or no impact as
temperatures rise above freezing. Warm air moving over residual
snow cover may result in areas of fog.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
On Friday, a strong cutoff upper low will eject east out of texas
and move across the southeast u.S. Throughout the day. The
associated surface low will follow a similar track, and
precipitation associated with the warm front will arrive in our
region Friday evening. A strong area of high pressure over the
northeast will also be moving out to sea at this time, so there
could potentially be some lingering cold air at the onset of this
system, thus allowing for a very small chance for freezing rain at
the onset, primarily west of the blue ridge. However, given the
trend for precipitation to arrive later in the day Friday, this
seems very low probability at this point, with surface air likely
too warm by the time precipitation arrives. Instead, what will likely
occur is a cold, heavy rain Friday afternoon evening into Saturday
morning. Recent trends in guidance suggest that central va into
central southern md are highlighted for the most significant risk
for heavy rain. Besides potentially cracking the annual rainfall
record at dca, this could result in a flood risk, especially in
central va where significant snow fell Sunday. In addition, there
might be some limited low level instability, and shear will be quite
high, so there may even be a modest severe weather risk. With the
strong southerly flow, temperatures likely warm into the 50s,
perhaps even the 60s at some point, particularly east of i-95.

On Saturday, the upper low will be moving off the east coast on
Saturday. However, there is still a great deal of uncertainty
regarding how close this system comes to us. Some guidance suggests
that it will pass far enough south for rainfall to end early
Saturday, but other guidance suggests it stays far enough north to
bring a continued chance for showers into Sunday. Keeping chance
pops through Sunday morning due to this uncertainty. High
temperatures will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Sunday afternoon through early next week look to dry out, as a cold
area of high pressure will build into the region. High temperatures
Sunday and Monday will drop into the mid to upper 40s.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions through midday Friday. Rain developing fri
afternoon with possible flight restrictions.

Conditions will deteriorate to widespread ifr with rain, low clouds
and low-level wind shear by Friday night as a strong storm system
crosses the region. Vis cig restrictions and wind shear could
diminish Saturday afternoon as the primary system pulls out of the
area, though rain could linger into Sunday depending on where the
upper level system tracks.

Marine
Small craft advisory has been issued for overnight and into
Wednesday morning. A low level frontal boundary will cross the
region tonight, with an increase in northwest winds expected and
gusts to around 20 knots now appear likely. Winds will decrease
by Wednesday afternoon and should return to sub-sca levels and
remain there through Thursday night.

Winds increase Fri night with SCA conditions possible.

Storm system crossing the area Friday into Saturday will result in
strong southeasterly winds. SCA gusts highly probable. Gales can't
be ruled out with winds over 40 knots not far above the surface, but
poor mixing most likely precludes it. However, there is also
convective potential which could allow for those strong winds to mix
down. Winds relax over the remainder of the weekend.

Climate
Rainfall totals continue to creep upward, with baltimore
setting the annual record already. Here are the current rankings
for wettest year on record (through december 10th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.78 inches (2018)
4. 60.09 inches (1878)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 65.67 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 61.30 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 am to 11 am est Wednesday for
anz531>534-537-539>541-543.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Mm lfr
short term... Lfr
long term... Cjl
aviation... Mm lfr cjl
marine... Mm lfr cjl
climate... WFO lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 2 mi40 min NNW 6 G 8.9 36°F 43°F1017.8 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 5 mi40 min NNW 18 G 21 41°F 1018.6 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 16 mi46 min NNW 9.9 G 9.9
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 23 mi40 min WNW 9.9 G 11 36°F 39°F1018 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 23 mi38 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 37°F 1017.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 25 mi46 min 41°F 40°F1017.8 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 25 mi46 min W 2.9 G 4.1 34°F 39°F1018 hPa
NCDV2 32 mi46 min NW 1 G 2.9 27°F 42°F1018 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 33 mi148 min Calm 28°F 1018 hPa26°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 38 mi58 min W 8.9 G 9.9 37°F 40°F1019.1 hPa (+1.3)24°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 44 mi40 min 36°F 1017.8 hPa
CPVM2 45 mi40 min 38°F 20°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi40 min Calm G 1 37°F 40°F1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Solomons Island, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD5 mi2.1 hrsWNW 69.00 miFair34°F28°F79%1018 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD6 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair28°F26°F93%1018.3 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD14 mi65 minW 310.00 miFair31°F24°F76%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW5NW5NW6NW6NW7NW9NW8NW8NW5NW4NW6NW7NW7NW4SW6W9SW5CalmSW3W5NW5NW6NW4
1 day agoN10N12N12N10N12N11N19N11N18N16N14N15N14N16N13N12N10NE12N9N8N8NE8N5W3
2 days agoNE11NE11NE11--NE11E7NE5NE8NE10NE10NE9N11N13N13N13N17NE19NE20
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Tide / Current Tables for Solomons Island, Patuxent River, Maryland (3)
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Solomons Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:01 AM EST     0.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:37 AM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:31 PM EST     1.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:40 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.40.60.70.80.70.50.30.1-0-00.10.30.60.91.11.31.31.20.90.70.40.3

Tide / Current Tables for Point Patience, 0.1 mile southwest of, Maryland Current
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Point Patience
Click for MapFlood direction 315 true
Ebb direction 145 true

Wed -- 01:16 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:55 AM EST     0.34 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 05:26 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:42 AM EST     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 11:08 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:02 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:30 PM EST     0.46 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:08 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:23 PM EST     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:40 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.10.20.30.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-00.30.40.40.30-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.