Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairview Beach, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:32PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 3:21 AM EDT (07:21 UTC) Moonrise 7:09AMMoonset 8:28PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 131 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am edt this morning through this afternoon...
Overnight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Fri night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Sun..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 131 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build into the waters for midweek, followed by a low pressure system moving towards the region on Friday. This system will exit the region Saturday. Small craft advisories are possible Thursday night through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairview Beach, VA
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location: 38.36, -77.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 290121
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md/washington dc
921 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will build over the region through the midweek.

Another disturbance will approach the area late Thursday into
early Saturday.

Near term /until 7 am Wednesday morning/
The upper low/trough axis has pushed east, and is presently
moving off the delaware coast. Drier air has begun to infiltrate
the area, which has all but eliminated the thunderstorm
potential. However, there are still a few showers roaming about,
including a cell headed toward dc. Overall trend is down, which
is already reflected in the database.

In spite of the punch of drier air seen on water vapor, the
low-levels remain quite moist. It may take a while (as in the
pre-dawn hours) for dewpoints to truly drop. That suggests that
there may be a low cloud or fog issue to contend with overnight.

Mitigating factors tonight include north flow and residual
cloudcover. Have included a few hours of patchy fog after
midnight, but have it sinking south (into central virginia) by
daybreak.

Short term /7 am Wednesday morning through Friday/
High pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday with a
breezy north wind. Temperatures will not be as warm and the
humidity will be noticeably lower, but still on the nice side
for late march with 60s common. Winds will relax Wednesday night
as the pressure ridge pushes directly overhead, and with dry air
in place, we may radiate down towards freezing or even a bit
below in the colder spots.

By Thursday, clouds will start to increase as warm advection
begins ahead of the next approaching low pressure. The clouds
should limit the insolation and temps will get stuck in the
50s. Some rain may move into western areas late in the day, but
think for most areas, it will wait until after dark Thursday
night. Low pressure will slide east toward us through the day
Friday, with periods of rain looking likely. There is a good
southerly fetch with this system overruning the cool wedge at
the surface, so potential for some decent rain. Right now, it
appears the wedge will mostly hold with this system, so highs
Friday look to remain in the 50s.

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/
The chance for rain showers linger Saturday before drier and
cooler air can filter into the region Saturday night when high
pressure works its way into the mid-atlantic.

High pressure will settle into the region Sunday through early
Monday. Dry and seasonable temperatures expected throughout the
period.

The next storm system will move into the region midday Monday
through Tuesday, bringing the chance for rain showers to the
region once again.

Aviation /01z Wednesday through Sunday/
Vfr flight conditions mainly prevail this evening outside of any
showers. However, these are on the decline, aside from one
passing south of dca through 02z. There is no additional shower
threat included in the tafs.

Drier air will slowly infiltrate from the north overnight.

However, there will still be a lot of low level moisture,
suggesting there may be a low cloud or fog threat. Mitigating
factors tonight include north flow and residual cloud cover.

Guidance suggesting that ceilings overnight will be more toward
low-end MVFR, and reflected that change in the 00z tafs. Have
also included a few hours of patchy fog after midnight, with a
trend highlighting the northern terminals (mrb/bwi) first, and
then sliding south toward cho. Did not go lower than MVFR in the
visibility forecast either. If the forecast GOES astray, the
most likely culprit will be a delay in the arrival of dry air,
which would mean that conditions could hit ifr pre-dawn.

Whatever does develop tonight will erode in the morning as
north/northwest winds pick up. Some gusts could reach 20 kt.VFR
conditions will continue until Thursday night, when the next
system will bring more rain and potential for ifr CIGS and vis.

MVFR conditions Saturday. Winds northwest 10 knots Saturday.

Vfr conditions evolving Saturday night. Winds northwest 5 knots
Saturday night.

Marine
One last shower is passing south of washington dc at this time.

After that, conditions will generally be benign through the
night. Guidance does not look that impressive with respect to
good mixing/channeling tonight, and have pulled the small craft
advisory for the overnight hours.

However, winds will pick up with sunrise tomorrow. Northerly
winds are expected to gust to 20 kt. Have left the small craft
advisory in place for the daytime hours on Wednesday. Winds
should diminish Wednesday night and remain sub SCA during the
day Thursday with high pressure passing the area.

Potential for small craft advisory conditions increases Thursday
night and Friday with increasing southeasterly winds ahead of an
approaching system. Winds will then turn north/northwesterly on
Saturday behind the system, with continued potential for sca
conditions.

Lwx watches/warnings/advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am to 6 pm edt Wednesday for
anz530>543.

Synopsis... Rcm/hts
near term... Hts
short term... Rcm
long term... Klw
aviation... Hts/rcm/klw
marine... Hts/rcm/klw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 12 mi52 min N 5.1 G 8.9 61°F 50°F1014.3 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 37 mi52 min NNW 5.1 G 8.9 60°F 52°F1015.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 41 mi112 min N 2.9 60°F 1014 hPa53°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 41 mi52 min N 9.9 G 11
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi52 min N 6 G 8.9 57°F 48°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 46 mi32 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 50°F 1015.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 46 mi52 min N 8 G 8.9 50°F 1015.2 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 49 mi52 min N 5.1 G 7 57°F 51°F1014.2 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA11 mi27 minN 410.00 miOvercast59°F58°F97%1016.6 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA11 mi26 minN 510.00 miOvercast61°F57°F90%1015.7 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA12 mi27 minN 410.00 miOvercast61°F57°F89%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from RMN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S3S4S3S4SW11
G21
W4W3SW6W9W4NW9NW3N11
G14
N3CalmCalmNW3NW4NW6N6N6NW6N5
1 day agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW7SW7
G15
SW8SW11SW8SW3S6S5S4SE3CalmCalmS4S4S4S3
2 days agoNE7E7NE9NE8NE5E9E6E9E7NE5NE6E9E10E8E8E9NE7E4E6E4NE5E4E4E5

Tide / Current Tables for Maryland Point Light, Potomac River, Maryland
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Maryland Point Light
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:47 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:26 AM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:27 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:58 PM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.100.10.50.91.21.41.41.20.90.60.30.1-0-00.20.611.21.31.20.90.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Riverside, Potomac River, Maryland
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Riverside
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:06 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT     1.65 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:46 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:35 PM EDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:27 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.10.40.81.31.61.61.51.20.90.50.20-00.10.50.91.31.51.51.30.90.60.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.