Sunday, February18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carmet, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:54PM Sunday February 18, 2018 1:00 AM PST (09:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:42AMMoonset 8:54PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Point Arena To Point Reyes To 10 Nm- 841 Pm Pst Sat Feb 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late Sunday night...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 11 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. NW swell 8 to 10 ft at 13 seconds. Chance of showers.
Washingtons birthday..NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. NW swell 9 to 12 ft at 14 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 8 to 10 ft at 14 seconds.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft. Slight chance of showers.
PZZ500 841 Pm Pst Sat Feb 17 2018
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Low pressure dropping south along the west coast will result in increasing north to northwest winds. Small craft advisories will transition into gale warnings Monday night after a cold front pushes through. Winds will slowly decrease Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carmet, CA
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location: 38.37, -123.08     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 180537
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
937 pm pst Sat feb 17 2018

Synopsis Blustery and much colder weather conditions will
develop on Sunday as a strong cold front sweeps through the
region. There is also a chance of showers from late Sunday into
Monday, mainly near the coast and in the santa cruz and santa
lucia mountains. Snow levels are forecast to drop as low as 1,000
feet and locally lower by Monday. Widespread freezing
temperatures are expected for inland areas once winds subside on
Monday night. Cool and unsettled weather is expected to persist
through the end of next week.

Discussion As of 9:10 pm pst Saturday... Warming that began
yesterday continued today. Afternoon highs today ranged from the
mid 60s to mid 70s and were anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees warmer
than normal. Today will be the last warm day our region will
likely see for quite some time as a major pattern change gets
underway tomorrow.

Evening satellite imagery shows a cold weather system over the
pacific northwest with the leading edge of the cold air just
beginning to pass south of the ca or border at this time. This
system is forecast to continue plunging south overnight and a cold
front will sweep from north to south across our region on Sunday
morning. Much cooler and blustery conditions will develop behind
the front on Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday are generally
forecast to be from 10 to 20 degrees cooler than today. By late
afternoon northwest winds will likely gust as high as 40 mph along
the coast. The cold front is expected to be dry for the most
part, with only isolated light showers possible in the coastal
hills on Sunday.

As the cold upper trough continues to dig south on Sunday night,
the models indicate shower chances will increase, primarily in
coastal areas and in the santa cruz and santa lucia mountains.

Precipitation amounts are forecast to be light and rather
insignificant, but only if considering liquid precipitation. Snow
levels are forecast to fall as low as 1500 feet by late Sunday
night and then down to 1000 feet, or locally lower, by Monday as
one of the coldest air masses our region has seen in years sweeps
over our area. The NAM continues to forecast more precipitation
compared to the GFS or ecmwf. The 00z NAM forecasts precipitation
totals as high as 0.40" in the northern santa lucia mountains of
monterey county from Sunday night through Monday. This 0.40" of
liquid precip would translate into as much as 5 inches of snow
above 1500 feet in the santa lucias. In the santa cruz mountains
most models, even the nam, forecast only about a tenth of an inch
of precip or less. The exception is the 12z local WRF model which
forecasts as much as 0.80" of precipitation in the santa cruz
mountains on Sunday night and Monday. This much precip would
translate into several inches of snow at higher elevations and
with the projected snow levels we could easily see accumulating
snow at the summit of highway 17 and along skyline boulevard
(highway 35). Because the WRF is an outlier with much more precip
compared to other models, forecast confidence is too low to issue
a winter weather advisory for the santa cruz mountains at this
time. But this is something we will need to watch closely. We will
also need to consider winter weather advisories for the santa
lucia mountains. All other mountain zones are expected to see
little or no accumulating snowfall with this system. Rain and snow
showers are expected to end in all areas by Monday evening.

Northwest winds are forecast to remain locally strong and gusty
through Sunday night and Monday, especially near the coast. At
this time it appears winds will mostly remain below advisory
levels except for a few of the windier locations such as point
reyes. A wind advisory is not anticipated at this time.

Besides snow potential and winds, the other primary impact from
this system will be freezing temperatures. Overnight lows on
Sunday night are expected to remain above freezing in most areas
due to brisk winds and good mixing. By Monday night winds are
forecast to subside and skies will clear. This will set the stage
for the coldest night of this winter season, and widespread
freezing temperatures are expected across inland areas late Monday
night and Tuesday morning. Overnight lows on Monday night are
forecast to range from the mid 20s to lower 30s inland, and from
the mid 30s to lower 40s at the coast. A freeze watch has been
issued for all inland areas of our forecast area from late Monday
night into Tuesday morning. Several hours of subfreezing
temperatures are possible. Once the freeze watch is transitioned
to a freeze warning, we may also need to issue frost advisories
for some of our coastal zones.

Earlier it had appeared that Tuesday night could be as cold as
Monday night. However, recent models now show a system dropping in
from the north by late Tuesday night. Widespread cloud cover
associated with this system will help keep minimum temperatures up
above freezing in most areas on Tuesday night, except perhaps in
the far southern portion of our area.

Longer range models maintain a cool and unsettled pattern through
the rest of the week and into next weekend.

Aviation As of 9:30 pm pst Saturday... Low clouds are developing
along the coast ahead of an upper trough. MVFR CIGS will spread
over the sfo and mry bay area overnight with possible ifr for
cigs and vsby at sts. Increasing northwest winds will help to
scatter out the clouds by midmorning.

Vicinity of ksfo... MVFR after 08z. West winds to 15 kt through
08z.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals... MVFR spreading into sns after 09z.

Climate
Here are record low temperatures and the years they occurred for
Monday through Wednesday next week.

Location Monday Tuesday Wednesday
sf bay area
healdsburg 28 in 1932 22 in 1922 28 in 1929
santa rosa 26 in 1932 26 in 1913 26 in 1913
calistoga 25 in 1918 25 in 2006 25 in 2006
kentfield 27 in 1932 27 in 1913 29 in 1953
san rafael 32 in 1990 32 in 2006 33 in 1955
napa 29 in 1990 28 in 1920 29 in 1955
san francisco 38 in 1897 38 in 1897 36 in 1890
sfo airport 36 in 1990 37 in 2011 34 in 1955
half moon bay 34 in 1954 32 in 2013 31 in 2006
oakland airport 35 in 1955 34 in 2006 33 in 1955
richmond 35 in 1990 35 in 1990 35 in 1981
livermore 27 in 1956 28 in 1942 27 in 1955
moffett field 35 in 1949 34 in 2006 32 in 1955
san jose 32 in 1990 30 in 1897 25 in 1897
gilroy 27 in 1964 30 in 1990 31 in 1976
monterey bay area
santa cruz 30 in 1990 29 in 1913 30 in 1955
salinas 29 in 1990 31 in 2006 31 in 1970
salinas airport 29 in 1933 28 in 1953 30 in 1953
monterey 35 in 1990 35 in 2006 36 in 1952
king city 25 in 1955 22 in 1953 23 in 1953

Marine As of 09:27 pm pst Saturday... Low pressure dropping
south along the west coast will result in increasing north to
northwest winds. Small craft advisories will transition into gale
warnings Monday night after a cold front pushes through. Winds
will slowly decrease Tuesday and Wednesday.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday Sca... Mry bay
sca... Pt arena to pt reyes 0-10 nm
sca... Pt reyes to pigeon pt 0-10 nm
sca... Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm
sca... Pt pinos to pt piedras blancas 0-10 nm
sca... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm
sca... Pigeon pt to pt piedras blancas 10-60 nm
sca... Sf bay from 9 am
public forecast: dykema
aviation: W pi
marine: W pi
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46013 - Bodega Bay - 48NM North Northwest of San Francisco, CA 15 mi40 min NW 25 G 31 51°F 51°F1017.3 hPa47°F
PRYC1 - 9415020 - Point Reyes, CA 26 mi42 min WNW 25 G 30 52°F1016.6 hPa
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 44 mi130 min WNW 23 G 29 51°F 52°F7 ft1017.1 hPa (-0.6)
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 47 mi48 min SE 5.1 G 8 53°F 55°F1016.2 hPa
46237 - San Francisco Bar, CA (142) 47 mi60 min 53°F6 ft
TIBC1 - Tiburon Pier, San Francisco Bay, CA 47 mi41 min Calm 52°F 1016 hPa
DPXC1 - 9415141 - Davis Point, San Pablo Bay, CA 48 mi42 min WSW 8 G 9.9 53°F 1015.8 hPa

Wind History for Point Reyes, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Rosa, Santa Rosa Sonoma County Airport, CA17 mi67 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist42°F42°F100%1015.3 hPa

Wind History from STS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalm35S8--SE8SE11S6S3S3CalmS3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmN4N3N6N433S3CalmS5S6SE5SE5CalmN4CalmCalmW3S3
2 days agoN5W4N11N9N12N10N8--NW6N76NW9NW73NW5W5SE34W3W4NW3NW3W3W4

Tide / Current Tables for Bodega Harbor entrance, California
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Bodega Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:43 AM PST     5.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:28 AM PST     2.01 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:58 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:41 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:16 PM PST     5.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:53 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:46 PM PST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:54 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.954.743.22.42.12.12.63.34.14.85.25.14.53.52.41.30.70.50.91.82.93.9

Tide / Current Tables for Salt Point, California Current
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Salt Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:45 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:20 AM PST     -0.96 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:00 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:39 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:43 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:33 AM PST     0.82 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:27 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:34 PM PST     -1.19 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 05:54 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:03 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:55 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 11:05 PM PST     0.96 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.4-0.1-0.6-0.9-0.9-0.6-0.20.10.50.80.80.60.2-0.3-0.8-1.1-1.2-0.9-0.5-00.40.81

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sacramento, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.